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Feb. 26 Storm DISC+OBS


Ellinwood

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Seems like a reasonable call would be 1" BWI. 1-2" from Rte 50 to the south side of DC and 2-4" near EZF. 

 

sounds reasonable though I think I would still go 1-3 for DC - euro is probably too amped/west and wet, but we aren't going to see it run again until the event is starting....we are pretty much stuck with the same guidance until 9...unless people really want to use the RAP/HRRR which is pretty  very inadvisable outside a a few hours

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sounds reasonable though I think I would still go 1-3 for DC - euro is probably too amped/west and wet, but we aren't going to see it run again until the event is starting....we are pretty much stuck with the same guidance until 9...unless people really want to use the RAP/HRRR which is pretty very inadvisable outside a a few hours

I averaged of all 12-18z guidance and came up with .19 @ DCA.

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sounds reasonable though I think I would still go 1-3 for DC - euro is probably too amped/west and wet, but we aren't going to see it run again until the event is starting....we are pretty much stuck with the same guidance until 9...unless people really want to use the RAP/HRRR which is pretty  very inadvisable outside a a few hours

The HRRR handled our last system pretty well...from what I have been able to tell, the HRRR does poorly with northern stream dominate systems (clippers, redevelopers, Miller Bs) but does a lot better with southern stream juiced up systems and overrunning events...Id put some decent stock into the HRRR even now.

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GFS is the new Euro. :(

 

Euro has the "disadvantage" of running only twice a day, the 2nd time being after many are asleep.  It's still the best model, especially for QPF.  A lot of times it gets a shift right, the 18z/0z models then shift, and they get the credit because the euro doesn't come full circle until 1am....on Friday it pretty much nailed it at 12z after the 12z GFS ran, so the GFS got the credit so to speak for coming out 2 hours earlier....If it cuts back on precip/comes east it will be too late since the storm is starting like an hour after it runs

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

512 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

MDZ017-260615-

/O.UPG.KLWX.WW.Y.0017.150226T0300Z-150226T1700Z/

/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0007.150226T0300Z-150226T1700Z/

ST. MARYS-

INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ST MARYS CITY

512 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON

EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS

ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM

10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER

ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES.

* TIMING...DEVELOPING LATE THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUING THROUGH

THURSDAY MORNING. HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED 1 AM TO 8 AM.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

512 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VAZ050-056-057-260615-

/O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0017.150226T0300Z-150226T1700Z/

ORANGE-SPOTSYLVANIA-KING GEORGE-

INCLUDING THE CITY OF...FREDERICKSBURG

512 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS

EVENING TO NOON EST THURSDAY...

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES.

* TIMING...DEVELOPING LATE THIS EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH

THURSDAY MORNING. HEAVIEST SNOW 1 AM TO 7 AM.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

512 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

DCZ001-MDZ013-014-016-018-VAZ038-039-051>055-502-260615-

/O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0017.150226T0500Z-150226T1700Z/

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-CALVERT-

GREENE-MADISON-CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-

FAIRFAX-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-

SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...

CULPEPER...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...

FALLS CHURCH

512 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT

TONIGHT TO NOON EST THURSDAY...

* LOCATIONS...WASHINGTON DC AND ITS MARYLAND AND VIRGINIA

SUBURBS.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES...2 TO 4 INCHES FOR CHARLES

AND CALVERT COUNTIES.

* TIMING...DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH

THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVIEST DURING THE 3

AM TO 8 AM.

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