wawarriors4 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Not sure I'd run to the high end yet but we are back on a heater and late winter is the new winter.. so I dunno. We really need a like button cause this is an awesome comment.....press the chips and roll the dice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 We really need a like button cause this is an awesome comment.....press the chips and roll the dice Keep on rolling and rolling and rolling You got a decent shooter, you're gonna make some money Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Just don't let them send William H. Macy in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 GFS is really dry...southern stream issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Even at early range the GFS is farther SE than NAM/RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Not much shift.. Euro may be too far west with the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdood Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 What I don't get is how the n/s system doesn't phase with the system coming for us out of the south. They could practically hold hands seemingly right now. Bummer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdood Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 This system looks amped up too. Lots of moisture involved. Looks tropical. Haha. I want snough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Meh Looking better out this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I'd still probably weight the euro higher... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 18z RGEM is super dry...maybe like 0.09 or so for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Seems like a reasonable call would be 1" BWI. 1-2" from Rte 50 to the south side of DC and 2-4" near EZF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Meh What...are you expecting more than 1-3"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Seems like a reasonable call would be 1" BWI. 1-2" from Rte 50 to the south side of DC and 2-4" near EZF. sounds reasonable though I think I would still go 1-3 for DC - euro is probably too amped/west and wet, but we aren't going to see it run again until the event is starting....we are pretty much stuck with the same guidance until 9...unless people really want to use the RAP/HRRR which is pretty very inadvisable outside a a few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I'd still probably weight the euro higher... GFS is the new Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Anyone know of the NMM track record this season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 sounds reasonable though I think I would still go 1-3 for DC - euro is probably too amped/west and wet, but we aren't going to see it run again until the event is starting....we are pretty much stuck with the same guidance until 9...unless people really want to use the RAP/HRRR which is pretty very inadvisable outside a a few hours I averaged of all 12-18z guidance and came up with .19 @ DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 sounds reasonable though I think I would still go 1-3 for DC - euro is probably too amped/west and wet, but we aren't going to see it run again until the event is starting....we are pretty much stuck with the same guidance until 9...unless people really want to use the RAP/HRRR which is pretty very inadvisable outside a a few hours The HRRR handled our last system pretty well...from what I have been able to tell, the HRRR does poorly with northern stream dominate systems (clippers, redevelopers, Miller Bs) but does a lot better with southern stream juiced up systems and overrunning events...Id put some decent stock into the HRRR even now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 They've put enough chemicals down today to kill small farm animals. I am gonna call PETA. I think a delay and we get by. They are good eatin' when salt cured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 CWG has some respectable boom scenario probabilities for this event. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=http://img.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/files/2015/02/snow_chances_2-26v1a.jpg&w=1484 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Makes me sick sometimes to see MD for Heavy snow SOUTH of us like this - http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0098.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 GFS is the new Euro. Euro has the "disadvantage" of running only twice a day, the 2nd time being after many are asleep. It's still the best model, especially for QPF. A lot of times it gets a shift right, the 18z/0z models then shift, and they get the credit because the euro doesn't come full circle until 1am....on Friday it pretty much nailed it at 12z after the 12z GFS ran, so the GFS got the credit so to speak for coming out 2 hours earlier....If it cuts back on precip/comes east it will be too late since the storm is starting like an hour after it runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 GFS still like the little freshening of snow we get Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I averaged of all 12-18z guidance and came up with .19 @ DCA. same..although I counted the NAM/Hi-res/SREF for a moisture laden trifecta...still close enough to 0.2"...The Canadian twins are irrelevant to me....they've sucked the last 2 storms including being way way too dry on the 16th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 3-6 for centreville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Water Loop seems to be showing a turn to the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 512 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015 MDZ017-260615- /O.UPG.KLWX.WW.Y.0017.150226T0300Z-150226T1700Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0007.150226T0300Z-150226T1700Z/ ST. MARYS- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ST MARYS CITY 512 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES. * TIMING...DEVELOPING LATE THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED 1 AM TO 8 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 512 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015 VAZ050-056-057-260615- /O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0017.150226T0300Z-150226T1700Z/ ORANGE-SPOTSYLVANIA-KING GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...FREDERICKSBURG 512 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST THURSDAY... * LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL VIRGINIA. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES. * TIMING...DEVELOPING LATE THIS EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HEAVIEST SNOW 1 AM TO 7 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 512 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015 DCZ001-MDZ013-014-016-018-VAZ038-039-051>055-502-260615- /O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0017.150226T0500Z-150226T1700Z/ DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-CALVERT- GREENE-MADISON-CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK- FAIRFAX-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD- SOUTHERN FAUQUIER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF... CULPEPER...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA... FALLS CHURCH 512 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST THURSDAY... * LOCATIONS...WASHINGTON DC AND ITS MARYLAND AND VIRGINIA SUBURBS. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES...2 TO 4 INCHES FOR CHARLES AND CALVERT COUNTIES. * TIMING...DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVIEST DURING THE 3 AM TO 8 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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