Ian Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 On 2/25/2015 at 9:02 PM, Fozz said: Is that really 1"/hr rates in Baltimore or am I reading it wrong? yeah 1-2/hr rates back into S NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 On 2/25/2015 at 8:54 PM, WxWatcher said: The. Ratios. Though. what ratios? I am probably going to forecast based on climo - 11.5:1...Do you have evidence that DC will get better ratios than that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 On 2/25/2015 at 8:57 PM, UVVmet84 said: Pretty much the max zone here across the bay to Kay's area.Great storm for sure. News called for clouds when I went to sleep at 11:15 and woke up to heavy snow and finished with 18 inches in SE Baltimore City at my house during the time. Major model fail back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 On 2/25/2015 at 8:59 PM, Ian said: this would be interesting for the decisionmakers.. or those already driving into work. I see where 40s is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 RAP has a 3" lolli over portions of DC, AA Co and parts of southern MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 On 2/25/2015 at 9:03 PM, Ian said: yeah 1-2/hr rates back into S NJ. Seems high for a low total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 On 2/25/2015 at 8:48 PM, Ji said: this has January 25 2000 30 2010 written all over it fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 On 2/25/2015 at 8:50 PM, WestminsterDeathband said: Just keeping track for DC..hopefully GFS/RGEM moisten at 18z so consensus improves even more...right now looks like a 2" snowfall...maybe a tad more. 12zGFS - 0.15" 18z NAM - 0.22" 18z Hi res - 0.27" 15z SREF - 0.27" 12z Euro - 0.24" 12z GGEM - 0.12" 12z UKMET - 0.20" 12z RGEM - 0.09" Thanks for doing this... very helpful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 On 2/25/2015 at 9:05 PM, Don Cherry said: Seems high for a low total. heaviest stuff doesn't come till that period.. still going at the end of the run too. but it is the rap at the end of its run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 On 2/25/2015 at 9:03 PM, WestminsterDeathband said: what ratios? I am probably going to forecast based on climo - 11.5:1...Do you have evidence that DC will get better ratios than that? It was a joke based off comments from a couple of weeks ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 On 2/25/2015 at 9:04 PM, leesburg 04 said: I see where 40s is At least we are on the right half of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winteraddict Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 From the southeast thread........................ MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY WITH THE TRACK OFTHE DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM AND IN FACT THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSISSHOWS THE SURFACE CENTER SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST POSITION.THIS CONTINUED TREND RESULTS IN A SLIGHTLY WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER ANDHEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 On 2/25/2015 at 9:03 PM, WestminsterDeathband said: what ratios? I am probably going to forecast based on climo - 11.5:1...Do you have evidence that DC will get better ratios than that? The soundings suggest you're right, with the caveat that maybe we could get some better ratios if a good band comes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 On 2/25/2015 at 9:08 PM, Winteraddict said: From the southeast thread........................ MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY WITH THE TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM AND IN FACT THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SURFACE CENTER SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST POSITION. THIS CONTINUED TREND RESULTS IN A SLIGHTLY WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. Which WFO is that from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
infekshus Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 On 2/25/2015 at 8:40 PM, Ian said: One thing for sure.. people here like snow. you never hear about possible negatives. more progressive than modeled low never gets as deep as modeled coastal forms farther off shore leaving NW side less expansive convection robs moisture transport to anywhere N of RIC high rates never develop and the 1/4" of salt on the roads leave them wet instead of white Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 On 2/25/2015 at 8:18 PM, yoda said: WPC Afternoon Update 4" map -- http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day1_psnow_gt_04.gif ~10% chance DC sees 4"+ Hmm... I love being positive but that should read: ~90% chance DC does not see 4"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winteraddict Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 On 2/25/2015 at 9:11 PM, yoda said: Which WFO is that from? Not sure Solak posted it on page 99 in the southeast forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I'm just annoyed that I was bullish early then got bearish before it started to look better. This is why I stopped playing poker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 On 2/25/2015 at 9:14 PM, Ian said: I'm just annoyed that I was bullish early then got bearish before it started to look better. This is why I stopped playing poker.it's euros fault. Always the last model to catch on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 better coverage on the RGEM on the 18Z run but not a whole lot more qpf thru 24 hrs though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 On 2/25/2015 at 9:16 PM, Ji said: it's euros fault. Always the last model to catch on Not sure I'd run to the high end yet but we are back on a heater and late winter is the new winter.. so I dunno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 ^^HTF can you tell QPF of that BS^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 On 2/25/2015 at 9:07 PM, Ian said: heaviest stuff doesn't come till that period.. still going at the end of the run too. but it is the rap at the end of its run. OMD is going to love that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 On 2/25/2015 at 9:21 PM, Don Cherry said: OMD is going to love that. Office of Managing Disasters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Sure you meant OPM, but that made of think of MoD that used to post here. On 2/25/2015 at 9:21 PM, Don Cherry said: OMD is going to love that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Time to see if the GFS ticks NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I wish we still had more time for the trend. We're running out of it quickly and 0z will be our last opportunity before nowcast begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 On 2/25/2015 at 9:03 PM, Ian said: yeah 1-2/hr rates back into S NJ. GFS in 2 minutes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I know this much...snow was melting on the street the other day when it was 20 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 On 2/25/2015 at 9:08 PM, WxWatcher said: It was a joke based off comments from a couple of weeks ago we need a like button Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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