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February 25th-26th Winter Storm OBS


superjames1992

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First pic is snow at Wow's house last night just starting to pour.

2nd pic is this morning from upstairs.

Final pic is the deer coming last night that he grabbed from his outdoor cam.

Wish I had been there as it looks simply beautiful. Congrats to all who got their snow and fingers crossed for next time for those who didn't.

Suz

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Hey suzie!

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At Greenville-Spartanburg, 3.7" of snow has fallen so far this season. The most snow through February 26 was 21.4" in 1936.

 

At Charlotte, 3.2" of snow has fallen so far this season. The most snow through February 26 was 21.9" in 1936.

 

At Asheville, 13.3" of snow has fallen so far this season. Extremes through February 26 range from 30.7" in 1969 to a trace in 2012.

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In the corridor from the north half of ATL to GVL/AHN in GA, total liquid equivalent precip. for 2/25 averaged near 0.50". This was somewhat underneath the consensus closer to 0.75" (what I was expecting). At least one of the late NAM runs had a whopping 1.5", which I had immediately dismissed as hogwash based on it both being a wet outlier and a poor/quite wet biased model at least in these wintry threat situations. I often can cut the NAM output in half and get much closer to the model consensus. In this case, it needed to be cut by 2/3 to be right !

Even when ignoring the wet biased NAM, I do think there is at least a slight wet bias of the model consensus in this area in wintry situations based on years of following models.

I ended up going past gainesville to near the dawson county line and i ended up getting 2.5 inches max on the ground..however thanks to mixing, changing to sleet, even briefly changing to rain, and melting the average was 1 to 2 inches. Totals were absolutely  hurt by lack of overall precip as i don't think even a half inch liquid fell where i was and if it did i'd be surprised as the precip was extremely light for hours on end.  I knew the nam was overdone but every model showed at least 0.75...although there were hints on the gfs of slightly lesser totals in the far north in the last few runs iirc.  To it's credit, the rap saw this coming starting that morning. I even made mention of it on here because it worried me.  Although it appeared to have busted badly on the wet side in the upstate.

 

I believe The lack of even moderate precip allowed for the mixing to occur, other than actual waa. Any narrow warm nose was allowed to melt any falling flakes as it was very light and as I believe gsp mentioned there could have even been lack of moisture in the snow growth region for a portion of the time. Although where i was there was this totally bizarre bubble of warm air or something that caused mixing to occur, even changing over to rain for several hours in gainesville,  while just a few miles west of where i was it was all snow.

 

Disappointing to say the least in terms of totals. Although I knew if it was just 1 degree *warmer* aloft, the area I was going was going to get screwed (temps from 800mb down to the surface were -1c or less on nam/gfs for the heart of the storm)....it was hard to see that happening with so much, supposedly, heavy precip. In fact the precip was so heavy i thought it would go the other way. But i had so little confidence in it i headed north...which i am glad i did because my location here saw nothing but rain, except sleet and a few flakes at the start. I really believed between 85 and a rome to gainesville to toccoa could be the sweet spot that would end up just beyond the changeover line and get the most, similar to what happened in al...but that certainly was not the case. 

 

I have to say though i'm really shocked that areas further down the line in sc and nc got screwed by it too since the surge in warm air during the heart of the storm was at least shown by the models here while further east it seemed to happen as the precip ended. Instead it was much more pronounced it seemed. Just goes to show you that anytime there is any chance of a warm nose working it's way in, some way..somehow it's going to find a way to screw it up and be more than modeled.

 

However, it was still fun watching it change to huge heavy wet snow on the way up there as i past athens and after i was there watching the precip constantly changing back and forth between all precip types. There were a few periods of very impressive large sleet pellets, almost hail like, as well as  very tiny but copious sleet (looked like someone was pouring a salt shaker out overhead), it was pretty wild actually because i'm not sure i had ever seen it come down like that before.

 

Also that night, the skies completely cleared and the stars were out while there was the most peaceful light snow falling.  It takes a while for snow to fall to the ground and this delay made for a really awesome visual.  This went on for a solid hour or so. It was really really cool.

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Here are some photos I took during the storm.  It was the most picturesque snowfall since March 2009 and might beat out even that one.  6.5" was the finally tally, which makes it the third-biggest storm since 2002 (behind only February 2014, January 2010, and just ahead of March 2009 and December 2010).

Early in the event with 2-3" of snow on the ground and what I figure had to be approaching 2"/hr rates (we had 4+ consecutive hours in which we averaged 1-2"/hr, judging by GSO's OBS reports of liquid equivalent):

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I took a Jeb Walk out to the main road during the height of the storm (1 AM) with 5-6" on the ground:

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On the way back to the house from my Jeb Walk, I find some picturesque snow along the way with heavy, wet snow weighing down trees and bushes:

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The aftermath of the storm (5:30 AM):

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A tree in our front yard caked in snow:

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The backyard at the end of the following afternoon:

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