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February 25th-26th Winter Storm OBS


superjames1992

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Dry slot filling back in near ATL, precip types on doppler show snow pushing back SE. Maybe we can squeeze out an inch here at work in Smyrna/Marietta....

 

ATL never gets hit by comma heads/deformation zones, the Apps make it virtually impossible for a low to take a track where they can get hit in that manner, the 93 blizzard is really the only exception I know of. St. Louis is about the only other big city I know that is very prone to getting dry slotted and having the comma head bands miss them to the NW.

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As the strong lift moves across the NC piedmont tonight, the transition line will likely sink back south a bit.

 

I do think areas of central/eastern wake county down through Harnett and south and east will likely oscillate.

 

In the last 15 mins it has gone from ripping all snow...to snow/sleet....to sleet/rain... to all rain and now back to sleet and rain but the temp is 32 now so maybe we can get back to all snow soon.....

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mack what do you have - crazy here with huge flakes, then a sleet storm, then rain/sleet - huge flakes now - I'm right on the line - it really has been dependent on precip rates - wonder what robert at wxsouth is forecasting now

I have had sleet , maybe 20 big snowflakes, that's it for snow! Highly dissapointed. The wife is in Taylor's, looks like they have about 2" on the ground!
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 830 PM WEDNESDAY... ...HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING INTO THE TRIAD AND TRIANGLE AREAS... ...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY IN THE NEXT TWO HOURS... PRECIPITATION WAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA NEAR MID EVENING. THE 00Z/GSO SOUNDING STRONGLY SUPPORTED THE CURRENT ONGOING FORECAST OF A MAJOR IF NOT CRIPPLING SNOW STORM OVER MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. RAIN AND SNOW WERE MIXED AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER COUNTIES WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 30S. THE PRECIPITATION WAS BEGINNING AS SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM KANNAPOLIS AND BADIN TO SILER CITY TO RALEIGH IN THE COLDER AIR. UPSTREAM SNOW WAS FALLING AT KGSP WITH THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION SOUTH OF KGSP. THE GSO SOUNDING DEPICTED PLENTY OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR THAT WILL MOISTEN AND COOL SHORTLY SUPPORTING THE RAPID TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE REGION ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A FAY TO GSB LINE. BASED ON THE OBSERVATIONS IN NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI... NORTHERN ALABAMA INTO SOUTHWESTERN NC... AND THE CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS... SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR APPEAR LIKELY IN THE PIEDMONT SHORTLY. WE WILL TRY TO PIN DOWN THE MAIN TRANSITION ZONE (LIKELY TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF NEAR FAYETTEVILLE TO GOLDSBORO OR POSSIBLY SOUTHEAST OF THAT REGION AT LEAST EARLY ON). CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS SITUATION WELL AND UNLESS ADDITIONAL DATA SUPPORTS SOMETHING DIFFERENT... WE WILL MAINTAIN THE LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE SE. THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL RAPIDLY WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION... WITH MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT EXPECTED TO BE 28-31 DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE EVENT OVER THE PIEDMONT... AND NEAR 32 IN THE SE.

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Yes, it is adding up.  I'm starting to think we might have a decent shot at the higher end totals.  We'll see.  Long ways to go...

 

 

Ah, thanks for the temperature reading.  I don't have a household thermometer and GSO was 38 as of 9 PM, so that's quite a drop.

I'm down to 32 now. Starting to see some streaks of snow sticking on our roads. Nice moderate snow for last 30 minutes.

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ATL never gets hit by comma heads/deformation zones, the Apps make it virtually impossible for a low to take a track where they can get hit in that manner, the 93 blizzard is really the only exception I know of. St. Louis is about the only other big city I know that is very prone to getting dry slotted and having the comma head bands miss them to the NW.

Pretty interesting......and true, is it as simple as the mountain range or more to do with typical tracks of low pressure?

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Got about 3/4 of inch here with big fat flakes and sleet in morrisville. The COD  corellation coefficient seems to match the RAP from earlier w/ a warm bubble aloft coming through for 30 mins or so w/ this batch of high returns. hope we chg back over soon to all snow b/c we were prob at an inch/two an hour rates 30 mins ago.

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