michsnowfreak Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I'm thinking along those lines, but leaning toward drizzle or freezing drizzle in the dry slot instead of straight rain. I'm making the usual assumption that the models are underestimating the dry slot's progress and overestimating dry slot qpf...nothing fancy.could be a rare storm where we see every precip type. But I can easily see freezing rain at like 34 with as cold as the ground is. Snow is so deep and dense its not budging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 12z nam http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=057ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_057_1000_500_thick.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=1000_500_thick&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150301+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 WEll the 12z NAM is certainly "different..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 12z NAM for the lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 WEll the 12z NAM is certainly "different..." I've seen this over and over again with these northern lows that "might" hit my area with good snows. It will be right...and we'll get rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 WEll the 12z NAM is certainly "different..." Sadly with many of the 6z GFS Ensembles shifting further NW, I think it's on the right track. This one is close to over for us, even though my point has all snow and a little sleet in the forecast, amounts are 1-3" during the main batch. Just can't win here, other than our lucky 10" we got with Feb. 1st. Besides that, haven't had a storm locally over 4", though the airport recorded over that with the lake effect it received last Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 NAM is a bad model. I wouldn't get too shook up about it. This is the lolz though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 NAM is a bad model. I wouldn't get too shook up about it. This is the lolz though. lol nam.gif About half the model output put the low either over or NW of Milwaukee, so even if we do get lucky and remain all or mostly snow, ratios will be crap. I'm surprised Detroit is looking to eke out the same amount of snow we're forecasted for, but that's how things have gone this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 9z SREF mean for YYZ is 2.8". Sounds about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 First look from the RGEM for this storm, as it's now barely within 48hrs. Snow/ice line further north than the GEM has been, and would mean no snow at all on the front end for the QCA. Looks like we're in for a sleet-fest that eventually mixes with and changes to more freezing rain/rain. Gonna be a tough forecast for Chicagoland, as the northern burbs up by Geos could stay all snow for quite awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I'll take the 12z NAM, thank you. It's probably full of B.S. but it would be fun up in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadgerStateWX Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Glad for the northern crew that's had it real real tough and have remained calm and grown up on the forum during a dreaded frigid and dry winter while others are cashing in records. Congrats and with climo favoring you here on out hopefully this is the start of much more exciting weather ahead, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I seem to be having trouble getting the updates for the GFS and NAM. Sooo, is the NAM being ridiculous, or is the GFS taking this low waaaaaay north like the NAM now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I seem to be having trouble getting the updates for the GFS and NAM. Sooo, is the NAM being ridiculous, or is the GFS taking this low waaaaaay north like the NAM now? 12Z NAM tracked the low over Green Bay, 12z GFS over Milwaukee. I'm riding the 850mb 0c line up here in Central MI on both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 12Z NAM tracked the low over Green Bay, 12z GFS over Milwaukee. I'm riding the 850mb 0c line up here in Central MI on both. Isn't that close to where the GFS has had it? Most of it I'm guessing is the front end thump and then drizzle? I'm hoping that once they get this current storm out of the picture, perhaps they work south again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 NAM is a bad model. I wouldn't get too shook up about it. This is the lolz though. uncle ukie and crazy nam are apparently drinking at the same bar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 How much for MSP? Nephew flying out early weds morning to Mexico... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Isn't that close to where the GFS has had it? Most of it I'm guessing is the front end thump and then drizzle? I'm hoping that once they get this current storm out of the picture, perhaps they work south again. GFS ticked north about 10-20 miles each at the 6z and 12z runs and a hair warmer of course. I don't know what NCEP did but it seems like most sites are having problems getting model updates except their main model page. oh Just saw this on tropical tidbits site... Feb 28: NCEP is having latency issues on top of the long-term network issues. Net result is all model data up to 1 hour late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 GFS ticked north about 10-20 miles each at the 6z and 12z runs and a hair warmer of course. I don't know what NCEP did but seems like most sites are having problems getting model updates except their main model page. I am trying to contain my frustration with the fact that the deep south and Ohio Valley have both seen 8 to 12 inch snowfalls this week and we may end up with rain. lol The American models seem to be tracking the Low northwest with the southern Jet, while the other models are showing the Low getting pushed South east with the Northern Jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 How much for MSP? Nephew flying out early weds morning to Mexico... Up to 4" is forecasted, but that was mostly based on 0z and some 6z guidance. If 12z runs verify on some models, looks like it's possible we may get more. MPX highlighting the wind factor, and threw out the 'B' word. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 uncle ukie and crazy nam are apparently drinking at the same bar Well, that's nice... Ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 9z SREF mean for YYZ is 2.8". Sounds about right. I'm thinking 2-4" seems reasonable with this thump. Thermals/lower ratios could be an issue later in the game along with a fairly potent dry slot. Tough to not trust the UK, however, considering its formidable performance this year. It is going higher(4-6"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 The trend has been toward the Euro than anything. The GFS has been ticking north, but when we first started the GFS was a strong sub 990 low. It looks like the 12z UKmet has come north too, although I'll admit I can hardly read those terrible maps they put online. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Here's a few pics from the 12z GEM precip type maps while we wait for sites to get the better maps from the GFS/NAM with the NCEP problems lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 The trend has been toward the Euro than anything. The GFS has been ticking north, but when we first started the GFS was a strong sub 990 low. It looks like the 12z UKmet has come north too, although I'll admit I can hardly read those terrible maps they put online. Is anybody on here permitted to post the EURO snowfall map? Do you think the NAM and GFS are too far north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Up to 4" is forecasted, but that was mostly based on 0z and some 6z guidance. If 12z runs verify on some models, looks like it's possible we may get more. MPX highlighting the wind factor, and threw out the 'B' word. That won't be good. I90/52 are pretty exposed to the wind... he has a 4 wheel drive truck, but still could be ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Current 12z YYZ model summary UKIE: All frozen--SN/PL mix(0.6-0.8" QPF) GEM: 6-7hrs of SN/+SN, 3 hrs of PL, 3-4hrs of -RN/FZDZ GFS: 2-4" of SN followed by -RN/RN ECM: Pending NAM: Brief SN---> +PL---> -ZR----> -RN. (0.3" QPF). It's a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Current 12z YYZ model summary UKIE: All frozen--SN/PL mix(0.6-0.8" QPF) GEM: 6-7hrs of SN/+SN, 3 hrs of PL, 3-4hrs of -RN/FZDZ GFS: 2-4" of SN followed by -RN/RN ECM: Pending NAM: Brief SN---> +PL---> -ZR----> -RN. (0.3" QPF). It's a mess. Quite the model mayhem. Tough to get a proper agreement in terms of precip type for the area. Hopefully by tonight or tomorrows 12z runs, it'll become clearer. Alot of WAA working into this system, but we'll see how much CAD we can force into this system. Hard to disagree with the UKIE given its amazing performance of late, but we'll see. I'm thinking 2-3" initially followed by some mixing then rain for a while, but thats preliminary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 12z GFS Snow Map finally came out, better than I thought it would be for MBY anyways... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 12z GFS Snow Map finally came out, better than I thought it would be for MBY anyways... I'm confused...is that supposed to match this one? That shows more snow for 48 hours than the Earl Barker map for 120. http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=GRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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