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March 3-4th Winter Storm Potential


OntarioChaser

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I'm thinking along those lines, but leaning toward drizzle or freezing drizzle in the dry slot instead of straight rain. I'm making the usual assumption that the models are underestimating the dry slot's progress and overestimating dry slot qpf...nothing fancy.

could be a rare storm where we see every precip type.

But I can easily see freezing rain at like 34 with as cold as the ground is. Snow is so deep and dense its not budging.

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WEll the 12z NAM is certainly "different..." :lmao:

 

Sadly with many of the 6z GFS Ensembles shifting further NW, I think it's on the right track.  This one is close to over for us, even though my point has all snow and a little sleet in the forecast, amounts are 1-3" during the main batch.  Just can't win here, other than our lucky 10" we got with Feb. 1st.  Besides that, haven't had a storm locally over 4", though the airport recorded over that with the lake effect it received last Wednesday.

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NAM is a bad model. I wouldn't get too shook up about it.

 

This is the lolz though.

 

attachicon.giflol nam.gif

 

About half the model output put the low either over or NW of Milwaukee, so even if we do get lucky and remain all or mostly snow, ratios will be crap.  I'm surprised Detroit is looking to eke out the same amount of snow we're forecasted for, but that's how things have gone this year.

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First look from the RGEM for this storm, as it's now barely within 48hrs.  Snow/ice line further north than the GEM has been, and would mean no snow at all on the front end for the QCA.  Looks like we're in for a sleet-fest that eventually mixes with and changes to more freezing rain/rain.  

 

Gonna be a tough forecast for Chicagoland, as the northern burbs up by Geos could stay all snow for quite awhile.  

 

I_nw_r1_EST_2015030112_048.png

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Glad for the northern crew that's had it real real tough and have remained calm and grown up on the forum during a dreaded frigid and dry winter while others are cashing in records. Congrats and with climo favoring you here on out hopefully this is the start of much more exciting weather ahead,

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I seem to be having trouble getting the updates for the GFS and NAM. Sooo, is the NAM being ridiculous, or is the GFS taking this low waaaaaay north like the NAM now?

 

12Z NAM tracked the low over Green Bay, 12z GFS over Milwaukee. I'm riding the 850mb 0c line up here in Central MI on both.

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12Z NAM tracked the low over Green Bay, 12z GFS over Milwaukee. I'm riding the 850mb 0c line up here in Central MI on both.

 

Isn't that close to where the GFS has had it? Most of it I'm guessing is the front end thump and then drizzle? I'm hoping that once they get this current storm out of the picture, perhaps they work south again.

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Isn't that close to where the GFS has had it? Most of it I'm guessing is the front end thump and then drizzle? I'm hoping that once they get this current storm out of the picture, perhaps they work south again.

 

GFS ticked north about 10-20 miles each at the 6z and 12z runs and a hair warmer of course. I don't know what NCEP did but it seems like most sites are having problems getting model updates except their main model page.

 

oh Just saw this on tropical tidbits site...

 

Feb 28: NCEP is having latency issues on top of the long-term network issues. Net result is all model data up to 1 hour late.

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GFS ticked north about 10-20 miles each at the 6z and 12z runs and a hair warmer of course. I don't know what NCEP did but seems like most sites are having problems getting model updates except their main model page.

 

I am trying to contain my frustration with the fact that the deep south and Ohio Valley have both seen 8 to 12 inch snowfalls this week and we may end up with rain. lol

 

The American models seem to be tracking the Low northwest with the southern Jet, while the other models are showing the Low getting pushed South east with the Northern Jet.

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9z SREF mean for YYZ is 2.8". Sounds about right.

I'm thinking 2-4" seems reasonable with this thump. Thermals/lower ratios could be an issue later in the game along with a fairly potent dry slot. Tough to not trust the UK, however, considering its formidable performance this year. It is going higher(4-6").

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The trend has been toward the Euro than anything.  The GFS has been ticking north, but when we first started the GFS was a strong sub 990 low.  It looks like the 12z UKmet has come north too, although I'll admit I can hardly read those terrible maps they put online.

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The trend has been toward the Euro than anything.  The GFS has been ticking north, but when we first started the GFS was a strong sub 990 low.  It looks like the 12z UKmet has come north too, although I'll admit I can hardly read those terrible maps they put online.

 

Is anybody on here permitted to post the EURO snowfall map?

 

Do you think the NAM and GFS are too far north?

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Up to 4" is forecasted, but that was mostly based on 0z and some 6z guidance. If 12z runs verify on some models, looks like it's possible we may get more. MPX highlighting the wind factor, and threw out the 'B' word.

That won't be good.  I90/52 are pretty exposed to the wind...  he has a 4 wheel drive truck, but still could be ugly.

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Current 12z YYZ model summary

UKIE: All frozen--SN/PL mix(0.6-0.8" QPF)

GEM: 6-7hrs of SN/+SN, 3 hrs of PL, 3-4hrs of -RN/FZDZ

GFS: 2-4" of SN followed by -RN/RN

ECM: Pending

NAM: Brief SN---> +PL---> -ZR----> -RN. (0.3" QPF).

 

It's a mess.

 

Quite the model mayhem. Tough to get a proper agreement in terms of precip type for the area. Hopefully by tonight or tomorrows 12z runs, it'll become clearer. Alot of WAA working into this system, but we'll see how much CAD we can force into this system. Hard to disagree with the UKIE given its amazing performance of late, but we'll see. 

 

I'm thinking 2-3" initially followed by some mixing then rain for a while, but thats preliminary.  

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