Hoosier Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Kitchen sink. Might be fun/interesting watching it unfold. I'm kinda meh about it overall...if it starts to look like more ice then that's a different story. You know me I'm curious if we will see any discernable change in the model forecast thermal profiles/sfc temps after the current storm goes by and the new snowcover data is ingested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I'm kinda meh about it overall...if it starts to look like more ice then that's a different story. You know me I'm curious if we will see any discernable change in the model forecast thermal profiles/sfc temps after the current storm goes by and the new snowcover data is ingested. I'll root for ice, considering snow is off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 The 0z GFS has a nice 5-7" for the GTA. Would probably be wet snow if that run verified. The freezing line just crosses the city at 850mb on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 The 0z GFS has a nice 5-7" for the GTA. Would probably be wet snow if that run verified. The freezing line just crosses the city at 850mb on this run. That's too high. Verbatim, it has 3-4" in the city itself with some PL mixing in down towards YHM-Niagara. Eventually we go over to -ZR/-RN but all the synoptic features are clearly further south this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 That's too high. Verbatim, it has 3-4" in the city itself with some PL mixing in down towards YHM-Niagara. Eventually we go over to -ZR/-RN but all the synoptic features are clearly further south this run. I agree. Just had a second look, minor misconception in my post. Its cooler than previous runs, thats for sure. The 0z Ukmet looks interesting as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 0z GGEM pretty close to its 12z run. Maybe even a bigger thump of something wintry for northern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 0z GGEM pretty close to its 12z run. Maybe even a bigger thump of something wintry for northern IL. Verbatim, areas north of I-80 in IL don't change to plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I agree. Just had a second look, minor misconception in my post. Its cooler than previous runs, thats for sure. The 0z Ukmet looks interesting as well. I wouldn't mind 3-5" front end, followed by an extended period of ice pellets and freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Verbatim, areas north of I-80 in IL don't change to plain rain. Some TV mets here already going with mid 40's for Tuesday lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Verbatim, areas north of I-80 in IL don't change to plain rain. Maybe. 2m temps get into the mid 30's into northern Cook. But, "damage" is mostly done by then...and the GGEM does have a bit of a warm bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 00z models haven't really done much to add any confidence up to this point. Gonna be a fun and challenging forecast to be sure as we go forward for those of us in the battle zone. DVN and LOT forecasters will surely be adding a few more grey hairs over the next few days with this system lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Verbatim, areas north of I-80 in IL don't change to plain rain. Right now I'd say a blend of the GEM and GFS in terms of placement would be prudent. The GFS and NAM are likely too far north, especially given seasonal trends this year. Maybe N Illinois will score another one, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Maybe. 2m temps get into the mid 30's into northern Cook. But, "damage" is mostly done by then...and the GGEM does have a bit of a warm bias. Yep the 2m temps go above, but the hourly precip type maps have snow/sleet in those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 All of the models are beginning to completely lose the southern low now as the shortwave moves eastward (GGEM does also). If that does happens, we'll probably end up losing some of the dynamics for precipitation production (thus a reduction in QPF). It certainly has been a fear, that with the southern/weaker trend, it would still be a lose-lose situation as the better precipitation ends up either remaining mainly in the warm sector or splitting us to the north and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 For the QC it's starting to look safe to say this won't be an all snow event at least. Guessing we'll see the snow change to sleet/freezing rain/rain at some point Tue. Amounts of any type are very tough to call at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 The 0z GGEM looks like a nice hit for the GTA. Precip stays as all snow on the run with some mixing for a brief period near the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OntarioChaser Posted March 1, 2015 Author Share Posted March 1, 2015 Gem showing 8" for the GTA. GFS has about 6-7" for parts of the GTA. The trend towards all snow continues. Could be a sleeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 The ECMWF must be uninspiring for nobody to have posted about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 The ECMWF must be uninspiring for nobody to have posted about it. Looks similar to the 12z version. No shifts north or south. Best snows fall from northern IA/southeast 1/3 of MN through central WI into northern-lower MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Thinking this could be one of our first pinger fest systems we've had around here in several years. Haven't had much sleet here compared to other areas in recent years, so I guess we're sort of due. Still a bit early, and confidence isn't the greatest, but starting to think we see a brief period of snow that doesn't add up to much before quickly changing to a sleety/glazy mix that lasts for several hours Tue. Probably go over to plain rain/drizzle for quite awhile before changing back to a few bursts of wet non-accumulating snow before precip shuts down. All in all a non-event from a snow enthusiast for here, but an interesting evolution of wintry weather at least. All in all this system appears to be sort of a loser anyway in regards to snow production. A lot of moisture available, but the quick movement of the storm combined with meager cold sector precip should keep accums at or below warning criteria for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Thinking this could be one of our first pinger fest systems we've had around here in several years. Haven't had much sleet here compared to other areas in recent years, so I guess we're sort of due. Still a bit early, and confidence isn't the greatest, but starting to think we see a brief period of snow that doesn't add up to much before quickly changing to a sleety/glazy mix that lasts for several hours Tue. Probably go over to plain rain/drizzle for quite awhile before changing back to a few bursts of wet non-accumulating snow before precip shuts down. All in all a non-event from a snow enthusiast for here, but an interesting evolution of wintry weather at least. All in all this system appears to be sort of a loser anyway in regards to snow production. A lot of moisture available, but the quick movement of the storm combined with meager cold sector precip should keep accums at or below warning criteria for the most part. GGEM hitting the sleet hard...some places would be looking at an inch of sleet if it pans out. Other models not as bullish but still time to sort it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Gem showing 8" for the GTA. GFS has about 6-7" for parts of the GTA. The trend towards all snow continues. Could be a sleeper. Really not seeing this as anything too spectacular...even if we stay 100% snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 The winds look to be a bigger threat here than the snow. MPX calling for up to 4" and a blizzard watch will be coming for parts of the CWA if the 12z model runs hold serve. SREF plumes have a nice cluster between 4-6" with a mean of just over 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I say 2-5" north of M-59 1-2" south of it. With isolated higher amounts. Better. Then. Nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Final call: 1-4" of snow/sleet followed by a glazing of ice and then a cold rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 As usual, don't know what to think for this area. Most of the models are showing a nice snowfall except for the NAM. Almost any time the NAM disagrees with them and has the snow going north, it seems to win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Final call: 1-4" of snow/sleet followed by a glazing of ice and then a cold rain... I'm thinking along those lines, but leaning toward drizzle or freezing drizzle in the dry slot instead of straight rain. I'm making the usual assumption that the models are underestimating the dry slot's progress and overestimating dry slot qpf...nothing fancy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 As usual, don't know what to think for this area. Most of the models are showing a nice snowfall except for the NAM. Almost any time the NAM disagrees with them and has the snow going north, it seems to win. Compare the NAM at 500mb to the GFS or GEM. It's way out to lunch right now...as of the 6z run at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Compare the NAM at 500mb to the GFS or GEM. It's way out to lunch right now...as of the 6z run at least. I sure hope so. It was doing well in having a similar track as many of the others until yesterday. What happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 12z nam http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=057ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_057_1000_500_thick.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=1000_500_thick&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150301+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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