Baum Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I hope you're right, it would be a royal 'up yours' to some on the subforum to miss the first storm well to the south, then have the second one bring freezing rain/sleet/rain mostly. I'm prepared...are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I'm prepared...are you? Powerball and I are not prepared, and one of us will most likely be using the complaint thread next week, unless wave 2 at least produces an advisory snow for us. Our one storm over 4" this winter was a long duration moderate snow that added up to 10". Basically perpetual half inch an hour rates. With that being said, my main goal for the rest of the season is to see a couple hour period of heavy snow (1"/hour or better rates). Maybe this one has an outside shot to deliver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I'm prepared...are you? At least you can $$$ in salting the zr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Powerball and I are not prepared, and one of us will most likely be using the complaint thread next week, unless wave 2 at least produces an advisory snow for us. Our one storm over 4" this winter was a long duration moderate snow that added up to 10". Basically perpetual half inch an hour rates. With that being said, my main goal for the rest of the season is to see a couple hour period of heavy snow (1"/hour or better rates). Maybe this one has an outside shot to deliver. As long as the 12z EURO verbatim doesn't verify, I don't care what these 2 or 3 systems do... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Powerball and I are not prepared, and one of us will most likely be using the complaint thread next week, unless wave 2 at least produces an advisory snow for us. Our one storm over 4" this winter was a long duration moderate snow that added up to 10". Basically perpetual half inch an hour rates. With that being said, my main goal for the rest of the season is to see a couple hour period of heavy snow (1"/hour or better rates). Maybe this one has an outside shot to deliver. My call is your good for at least 10 inches before the season ends, and that's conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OntarioChaser Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 I would like to point out the low strength/placement at 84hr on the 00 NAM along with the insane extent of the precip shield which fills in steadily with each frame as the low takes shape..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Yeah the NAM has what looks like the beginning of a really nice front end thump of snow at the end of the run here. Long way to go though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 NAM with a big slug of snow/sleet/freezing rain at the end of the run, much like other models have been showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Get ready Timothy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Get ready Timothy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Good news is that the period of sleet on the 00z GFS would probably be less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Good news is that the period of sleet on the 00z GFS would probably be less. Better news is both the GFS and NAM suck at being weather models. But a little front end wintry action would be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Better news is both the GFS and NAM suck at being weather models. But a little front end wintry action would be fun. I think they have the right idea...quite a bit of low level dry air initially so it's very possible we get a period of sleet. Thermal profiles should be undergoing rapid transition though, so whether the sleet is 30 minutes or 3 hours, too early to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 That wave after this storm will need to be watched, as has been mentioned. 00z GGEM is pretty decent with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Interestingly, on the 00z ECMWF, the 850 mb 0C contour is further south than you might expect given this surface map at 96 hours. I've drawn the approximate 0C contour on this map below: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 00z Euro throwing out some more cold sector precip compared to the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I kind of noticed that as well, I agree with your 0° line at h85, I can't see a forecast sound for the RST area, but the snowfall amounts look somewhat low there for the temps profiles off the maps. H92 and H85 are the the same temps, I wonder if there is a warm layer between those levels. The info I'm referencing is off of EuroWX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 This is sleeper storm north of M-59 here in SEMI. I'm not writing this sucker off. Could be a decent front end thump for this area before the sleet/frz rain/ rain sets in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 6z GFS Snow Map: I'm riding the 6-7" line, another tick or 2 south please, nervous about that sharp cuttoff in snow totals 15 miles to my south. I'm hoping I can finally get my first winter storm warning of the season lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Was somewhat excited to see the 0z GFS come back north with a good hit. Then the 6z went south again. The 0z GEM still seems to be opening up the low a bit, but not quite as much as the nice run yesterday afternoon. Also of note is the positioning of the low. GFS had it on the southern tip of LM at the same time the GEM had it along the IA/MO border. GFS looks too fast compared to some of the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 This is sleeper storm north of M-59 here in SEMI. I'm not writing this sucker off. Could be a decent front end thump for this area before the sleet/frz rain/ rain sets in. I think it can be a sleeper storm for everyone in the Detroit area, as far as a front-end thumping. Besides some low-level CAD from the fresh snow that falls tomorrow, models also tend to underestimate the wet bulbing that occurs at the onset of these systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 12z NAM apparently shows a 3-5" front-end thumping for Detroit. Evening commute would be a mess if that happens (especially if there's ice on top of it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 12z NAM apparently shows a 3-5" front-end thumping for Detroit. Evening commute would be a mess if that happens (especially if there's ice on top of it). Even if the north scenarios wins out.... We have a foot of frozen solid, dense snowpack on ground that is more frozen than it ever is....we would start as frozen precip (be it snow, ice, or both), go to rain and see temps spike, but temps would be above freezing no more than 12 hours before plummeting into the 20s and maybe teens. Wednesday morning could be even worse as it could be a thick, deep glacier on the ground with unavaoidable ice rinks on every street. Lets just avoid all this shall we...Ill take more snow or total suppression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 12z NAM apparently shows a 3-5" front-end thumping for Detroit. Evening commute would be a mess if that happens (especially if there's ice on top of it). It looks like to me the Detroit area sees a very brief period of above freezing temps ATP per NAM doesn't appear to be a complete super soaker. In fact maybe some Frz rain along with a healthy dumping of front end snows especially north. Very messy set up in store for this area. FWIW its the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Even if the north scenarios wins out.... We have a foot of frozen solid, dense snowpack on ground that is more frozen than it ever is....we would start as frozen precip (be it snow, ice, or both), go to rain and see temps spike, but temps would be above freezing no more than 12 hours before plummeting into the 20s and maybe teens. Wednesday morning could be even worse as it could be a thick, deep glacier on the ground with unavaoidable ice rinks on every street. Lets just avoid all this shall we...Ill take more snow or total suppression really? This time of the year, I'll take any active weather over suppression. The sun is so bright now, I just see no reason to want to keep snowpack, unless it's a stat record or something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 40 and rain...that's what we are in the forecast for...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Even if the north scenarios wins out.... We have a foot of frozen solid, dense snowpack on ground that is more frozen than it ever is....we would start as frozen precip (be it snow, ice, or both), go to rain and see temps spike, but temps would be above freezing no more than 12 hours before plummeting into the 20s and maybe teens. Wednesday morning could be even worse as it could be a thick, deep glacier on the ground with unavaoidable ice rinks on every street. Lets just avoid all this shall we...Ill take more snow or total suppression Wouldn't you rather have interesting weather rather than non-interesting weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 really? This time of the year, I'll take any active weather over suppression. The sun is so bright now, I just see no reason to want to keep snowpack, unless it's a stat record or something like that. I'm with michsnowfreak. I don't find sunshine to be interesting from a weather standpoint, especially since Detroit has a predominantly sunny climate compared to other places I've lived. It's not as if the sun won't be beating down on us all summer long. I'd prefer to enjoy winter while it lasts. Let it snow. Back to the topic at hand, the NAM shows a snow --> fzra scenario, but if you look at the soundings I think I'd lean toward the snow lasting longer than the raw model output would indicate. The lift is quite strong and the warm layer is shallow and very marginal for 2-3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I'm with michsnowfreak. I don't find sunshine to be interesting from a weather standpoint, especially since Detroit has a predominantly sunny climate compared to other places I've lived. It's not as if the sun won't be beating down on us all summer long. I'd prefer to enjoy winter while it lasts. Let it snow. Back to the topic at hand, the NAM shows a snow --> fzra scenario, but if you look at the soundings I think I'd lean toward the snow lasting longer than the raw model output would indicate. The lift is quite strong and the warm layer is shallow and very marginal for 2-3 hours. Agree on all points. The NAM is showing a nice snowfall for my area too. I sure hope it holds on that. What do you think it will show in future runs (past 84 hours)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Wouldn't you rather have interesting weather rather than non-interesting weather? Snow? Yes. Rain? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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