March 3-4th Winter Storm Potential

[wisconsinwx]

i have no idea what to think about this one

 

I don't either, still leaning toward a rainer/sleeter here (maybe freezing rainer).  The thing we might have going for us further south is the more W-E trajectory than many of the SW systems, so perhaps this won't be as prone to additional NW trends.

[geddyweather]

IWX has a similar outlook to IND, which sums things up pretty well at this point. Honestly thinking a front end freezing rain thump is gonna be the only significant wintery threat for IN & OH unless we get some backside snow. Honestly concerned the most about flooding with this. 40 degree temperatures and anywhere from 1-3" of rain on top of a semi-fresh snowpack and frozen ground is not a good combination. 

 

IWX discussion for this, FWIW:

 

 FOCUS QUICKLY FOCUS QUICKLY SHIFTS TO SECOND STORM SYSTEM LIKELY TO IMPACT THE

REGION ANYWHERE FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. WESTERN
TROUGH AND EMBEDDED ENERGY BEGINS TO LIFT OUT AND HEAD OUR WAY. THIS
SYSTEM STILL LOOKS TO TAP DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL PACIFIC IN ADDITION TO GOMEX CONNECTION AS LOW LEVEL JET
RAMPS UP QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT. OVER 50 KNOTS LOW LEVEL FLOW BEING
INDICATED BY MODELS WHICH HELPS SPREAD 6 TO 8 G/KG MIXING RATIOS AND
PWATS OVER AN INCH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. WHEN THESE EJECTING LOWS
TAP THE SUBTROPICAL PLUME...THEY NEVER DISAPPOINT WITH PCPN AMOUNTS.
00Z ECMWF REMAINS SLOWER AND HOLDS OFF MOST PCPN UNTIL TUE
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD HELP REDUCE CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING AT
ONSET AS SFC TEMPS WOULD WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING BY THE TIME
PCPN ARRIVES TUE. GFS AND GEM REMAIN FASTER WITH PCPN ONSET AND THUS
MORE SIGNIFICANT ICING POTENTIAL EARLY TUE MORNING. MOST MEDIUM
RANGE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST TEMPS TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY MID DAY
TUESDAY AS WARM SURGE OVERWHELMS LOW LEVEL COLD WEDGE. WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF MIXED PCPN IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE MORNING DUE TO
MODEL DIFFERENCES AND UNCERTAINTY. THIS WARM SURGE WILL ALSO HELP
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND POSSIBLY
APPROACHING 50 IN THE SOUTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS DEEP TROPICAL CONNECTION HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A
THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM TUE. QPF AMOUNTS ON BOTH ECMWF AND GFS
IMPRESSIVE WITH 2 TO 3+ INCHES BEING GENERATED. THE QUESTION LOOKS
TO BE WHERE IT WILL OCCUR AND NOT IF IT WILL HAPPEN. ECMWF PUTS 2-3
INCHES OF RAIN OVER SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WHERE FRESH SNOWPACK MAY
EXIST FROM SUNDAY SYSTEM. GFS KEEPS THIS HEAVY RAIN AXIS FURTHER
SOUTH BUT STILL GENERATES OVER AN INCH IN OUR AREA. THESE AMOUNTS
COUPLED WITH MELTING SNOWPACK AND FROZEN GROUND MAY GENERATE
SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF. RIVERS WILL LIKELY STILL BE FROZEN FROM ONGOING
SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES SO THREAT FOR FLOODING AND ICE JAMS COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT. WILL MENTION ALL THESE POTENTIAL HAZARDS/IMPACTS IN HWO
BUT AS MENTIONED TIMING AND STORM TRACK WILL BE CRITICAL AS TO WHERE
ALL THIS PLAYS OUT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS.

SHIFTS TO SECOND STORM SYSTEM LIKELY TO IMPACT THE

REGION ANYWHERE FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. WESTERN
TROUGH AND EMBEDDED ENERGY BEGINS TO LIFT OUT AND HEAD OUR WAY. THIS
SYSTEM STILL LOOKS TO TAP DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL PACIFIC IN ADDITION TO GOMEX CONNECTION AS LOW LEVEL JET
RAMPS UP QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT. OVER 50 KNOTS LOW LEVEL FLOW BEING
INDICATED BY MODELS WHICH HELPS SPREAD 6 TO 8 G/KG MIXING RATIOS AND
PWATS OVER AN INCH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. WHEN THESE EJECTING LOWS
TAP THE SUBTROPICAL PLUME...THEY NEVER DISAPPOINT WITH PCPN AMOUNTS.
00Z ECMWF REMAINS SLOWER AND HOLDS OFF MOST PCPN UNTIL TUE
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD HELP REDUCE CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING AT
ONSET AS SFC TEMPS WOULD WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING BY THE TIME
PCPN ARRIVES TUE. GFS AND GEM REMAIN FASTER WITH PCPN ONSET AND THUS
MORE SIGNIFICANT ICING POTENTIAL EARLY TUE MORNING. MOST MEDIUM
RANGE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST TEMPS TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY MID DAY
TUESDAY AS WARM SURGE OVERWHELMS LOW LEVEL COLD WEDGE. WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF MIXED PCPN IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE MORNING DUE TO
MODEL DIFFERENCES AND UNCERTAINTY. THIS WARM SURGE WILL ALSO HELP
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND POSSIBLY
APPROACHING 50 IN THE SOUTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS DEEP TROPICAL CONNECTION HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A
THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM TUE. QPF AMOUNTS ON BOTH ECMWF AND GFS
IMPRESSIVE WITH 2 TO 3+ INCHES BEING GENERATED. THE QUESTION LOOKS
TO BE WHERE IT WILL OCCUR AND NOT IF IT WILL HAPPEN. ECMWF PUTS 2-3
INCHES OF RAIN OVER SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WHERE FRESH SNOWPACK MAY
EXIST FROM SUNDAY SYSTEM. GFS KEEPS THIS HEAVY RAIN AXIS FURTHER
SOUTH BUT STILL GENERATES OVER AN INCH IN OUR AREA. THESE AMOUNTS
COUPLED WITH MELTING SNOWPACK AND FROZEN GROUND MAY GENERATE
SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF. RIVERS WILL LIKELY STILL BE FROZEN FROM ONGOING
SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES SO THREAT FOR FLOODING AND ICE JAMS COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT. WILL MENTION ALL THESE POTENTIAL HAZARDS/IMPACTS IN HWO
BUT AS MENTIONED TIMING AND STORM TRACK WILL BE CRITICAL AS TO WHERE
ALL THIS PLAYS OUT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS.

[Brewers]

It wouldn't be the first time things phase too late. We need this thing to dig and keep that arctic air from coming down too fast. Otherwise it's another south win.

 

I'm on the fence and won't be budging until I see the ensembles lose the strung out crap. I honestly wouldn't mind missing out if DBQ to GRB cashes in with the goods.

[RCNYILWX]

Interesting evolution on the 00z Euro for the Chicago area. A mixed bag of everything, front end snow to rain then back to a mix then snow. The operational guidance did overall trend south as compared to yesterday, so we'll see if that continues today.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

[A-L-E-K]

i can't remember the last decent front end hit in these parts

[gosaints]

i can't remember the last decent front end hit in these parts

I cant remember the last real cutter winter storm in these parts....  

[A-L-E-K]

I cant remember the last real cutter winter storm in these parts....  

 

 

i had 21" earlier this month, that was pretty cool i guess

[Baum]

i can't remember the last decent front end hit in these parts

This one has the ability. Snow to Ice to Thunder back to snow. Then onto Spring.

[gosaints]

i had 21" earlier this month, that was pretty cool i guess

Ha ya 

[Chitown Storm]

I'm on the fence and won't be budging until I see the ensembles lose the strung out crap. I honestly wouldn't mind missing out if DBQ to GRB cashes in with the goods.

Give me 6+" or I'll take another swing and a miss. I don't want another 1-3" jobber. Let's see if the 12z op runs continue south.

[A-L-E-K]

12z GFS is a nice flooder for southern LOT CWA 

[Chicago WX]

12z GGEM trying to run some frozen up behind the lead wave. Mainly for southern IL and IN...and then into southern/central OH.

[smoof]

12z UKMET is kind of interesting, looks about 20 hours slower than the GFS / GEM and has the low over IND at 120h.

[geddyweather]

12z GFS 

 

[WestCoaster]

Toronto still hungry for a 10"+ storm this winter. #snowstarved 

[Chicago WX]

12z UKMET is kind of interesting, looks about 20 hours slower than the GFS / GEM and has the low over IND at 120h.

 

Comparing it to the 0z run, it's a bit stronger at that time on the 12z run. Also, a bit further north most likely. Won't know until I see the 6 hour panels on WB later today.

 

I guess I'm not supposed to post these images of the Ukie, but I'll do it quickly and then delete, but the 12z run from yesterday had an awesome temp gradient at 144 hours. So close I can almost smell the warmth.  

 

[smoof]

Comparing it to the 0z run, it's a bit stronger at that time on the 12z run. Also, a bit further north most likely. Won't know until I see the 6 hour panels on WB later today.

 

I guess I'm not supposed to post these images of the Ukie, but I'll do it quickly and then delete, but the 12z run from yesterday had an awesome temp gradient at 144 hours. So close I can almost smell the warmth.  

 

That's pretty nuts, I would definitely be going for a drive if I was near that temp gradient, 30-40 miles to go from 35 to 60 degrees lol.

[Stebo]

Considering the last few storms have trended south including the one coming, I would imagine this one would trend south in time. There are similarities with previous setups recently and with this weekends setup.

[Thundersnow12]

Considering the last few storms have trended south including the one coming, I would imagine this one would trend south in time. There are similarities with previous setups recently and with this weekends setup.

Yeah RC and I are thinking the same thing but we will see.

As it looks now though, defo band takes awhile to get going but the area that stays just north of the WAA in snow/pivot point ends up doing petty well.

[gosaints]

GEFS show some nice wound up scenarios

[Hoosier]

Excellent post on IND's discussion by Ryan this morning. Really hits it all.

 

 

 

Very nice writeup.  Adding a widespread 3-6" snow this weekend should count for something, and can't help but think it will slow down the surface warming a bit vs. what it would otherwise be, but it's one of those things that's hard to quantify as it's not like you can run an experiment with/without snowcover at any given location. 

[Chitown Storm]

GEM with a decent hit and GFS takes a step north with the precip in these parts. Nasty cutoff on the northern fringe of the precip on the GFS.

[Indystorm]

I like the strength of the low pressure.  WAA for the win with possible thunder but concerned about flooding rain on this snowpack here in central IN.  The first system serving as appetizer will certainly affect what is served as the entree.

[Hoosier]

Still a ways out but noticed the classic freezing rain profile on the 12z GFS for LAF, and a good chunk of the region really...transitioning from south to north as WAA increases.

 

 

[Thundersnow12]

[Brewers]

Northern stream has really become dominant over the last 24-36hrs. Ridging to the east continues to look flatter each run. Euro ensembles were meh. GEFS on the other hand pretty much solid hit on all members.

[Chitown Storm]

MPX leaves the door open, but is pretty unenthusiastic. Rightfully so given the winter trends.

[RCNYILWX]

sfc low euro members.png

Throw a dart style.

[cyclone77]

Really not sure what to expect out of this one.  At this point most of the models give us a little front end period of snow/mix before turning into a rainer with a little snow on the back side.  With the way models have trended a certain way in the last 48hrs all winter I ain't sold on this scenario yet.  Wouldn't be surprised to see this trend south over the next few days.  Seems odd to me the rain/snow line goes as far north as modeled given the lead wave dropping snow so far south.  

[wisconsinwx]

Really not sure what to expect out of this one.  At this point most of the models give us a little front end period of snow/mix before turning into a rainer with a little snow on the back side.  With the way models have trended a certain way in the last 48hrs all winter I ain't sold on this scenario yet.  Wouldn't be surprised to see this trend south over the next few days.  Seems odd to me the rain/snow line goes as far north as modeled given the lead wave dropping snow so far south.  

 

I hope you're right, it would be a royal 'up yours' to some on the subforum to miss the first storm well to the south, then have the second one bring freezing rain/sleet/rain mostly.