March 3-4th Winter Storm Potential

[OntarioChaser]

GFS back to a NW cutter bomb.

[Northern_IN_Wx]

I remember when I lived there, every Spring the lakes would flood.  especially that area near the rr tracks at Pike Lake.  Def a downside to not having consistent deep snow.  I wonder what the frost depth is here considering there's been 2'+ of snow since Nov 11th?

 

Not sure but a 10 inch frost depth around here is very unusual...more common for the Northern Plains.  We have a 4 inch snow glacier left here...and our lake effect belts have much more snow on the ground then that.  Snowmelt, runoff, and the potential for a couple inches of rain will make this event interesting (if a 12z GFS type solution comes to fruition).  Obviously this system could just be another strung out POS with little excitement.  Time will tell.

[geddyweather]

Not sure but a 10 inch frost depth around here is very unusual...more common for the Northern Plains.  We have a 4 inch snow glacier left here...and our lake effect belts have much more snow on the ground then that.  Snowmelt, runoff, and the potential for a couple inches of rain will make this event interesting (if a 12z GFS type solution comes to fruition).  Obviously this system could just be another strung out POS with little excitement.  Time will tell.

 

Flooding would be a major concern for everyone from southern lower MI all the way to Nrn. KY IF a GFS like solution takes place. Around IN and OH especially if we pick up another 4-6" of snow from the Sunday/Sunday night wave. Like you said, time will tell, but so far things indicate a front end of freezing rain followed by a super-soaker. 

[Hoosier]

Curious if anyone will manage to pull off the front end thump (I'm talking several inches) to heavy rain scenario that seems to be more unusual in this part of the country.

[smoof]

Fairly interesting 12z GEM evolution, front end thumping and then a new sfc low tries to take over in srn IL running north of the Ohio River 

The 12Z UKMET looked pretty similar to the GEM on the low track, at least some models aren't buying the GFS super north bomb scenario

[Powerball]

Curious if anyone will manage to pull off the front end thump (I'm talking several inches) to heavy rain scenario that seems to be more unusual in this part of the country.

I've been wondering about that too. Probably won't have a clue about this potential until the initial overrunning event happens.

Front-end thumps tend to always be nowcasting ordeals.

[Hoosier]

IWX already included freezing rain chances for Monday night-Tuesday.  Pretty unusual step to mention that in the forecast 4-5 days in advance.

 

Edit:  so did IND and LOT

[weatherbo]

Not sure but a 10 inch frost depth around here is very unusual...more common for the Northern Plains.  We have a 4 inch snow glacier left here...and our lake effect belts have much more snow on the ground then that.  Snowmelt, runoff, and the potential for a couple inches of rain will make this event interesting (if a 12z GFS type solution comes to fruition).  Obviously this system could just be another strung out POS with little excitement.  Time will tell.

sorry, a little OT but I got this answer from MQT:

 

Bo we've had reports of the frost line of 4 and 6 feet depths under cleared and exposed surfaces.

[OntarioChaser]

Euro and GFS in the northern camp, CMC and UK in the southern camp. Going to be a fun few days of model watching.

[Brewers]

Heights across the Eastern US and into SE Canada have continued to increase on the each successive Euro ensemble run. Also seems the northern stream wave continues to dig farther south.

 

GFS/Euro ensembles still a mixed bag, but the 12z Euro moved farther NW with a sub 1000mb mean over the WI/IL border.

[Gilbertfly]

More dig to northern stream seems to be a legit trend this year via model suites as we get closer to events

[dan123]

Heights across the Eastern US and into SE Canada have continued to increase on the each successive Euro ensemble run. Also seems the northern stream wave continues to dig farther south.

GFS/Euro ensembles still a mixed bag, but the 12z Euro moved farther NW with a sub 1000mb mean over the WI/IL border.

Typically when you have a low over the WI/IL border it isn't good for the majority of this sub forum except for our MSP friends.

[Chitown Storm]

Typically when you have a low over the WI/IL border it isn't good for the majority of this sub forum except for our MSP friends.

We won't be sending any sympathy cards if that happens, trust us. Ha! If I'm not mistaken, this would be our first non-NW flow system since the early November storm that nearly whiffed us to the north at the last minute. Loads of potential here, but still a long way to go with this one.

[weatherbo]

We won't be sending any sympathy cards if that happens, trust us. Ha! If I'm not mistaken, this would be our first non-NW flow system since the early November storm that nearly whiffed us to the north at the last minute. Loads of potential here, but still a long way to go with this one.

The northern part of the sub will cash in on snow in March/April when no one else wants it... we're the first and the last in the game.

[Younar]

We won't be sending any sympathy cards if that happens, trust us. Ha! If I'm not mistaken, this would be our first non-NW flow system since the early November storm that nearly whiffed us to the north at the last minute. Loads of potential here, but still a long way to go with this one.

Amen to that. I think the only exception to the relentless nw flow since early November was the 12/26-27 moderate overperformer.  Just give me one snowblower-worthy storm and then bring on spring. Haven't even used the blower yet this year.

[Baum]

The northern part of the sub will cash in on snow in March/April when no one else wants it... we're the first and the last in the game.

Truth serum is always good.

[Chitown Storm]

Amen to that. I think the only exception to the relentless nw flow since early November was the 12/26-27 moderate overperformer. Just give me one snowblower-worthy storm and then bring on spring. Haven't even used the blower yet this year.

You're right. How could I forget about 12/26-27? That was the biggest snow of the winter so far. Yeah we need another decent event so I can empty the gas tank on the snowblower. It's been idle since that storm.

[cyclone77]

New GFS buries the northern half of Iowa, southeast MN, most of WI, and about the northern half of lower MI.  Interesting front end thump of snow to heavy rain, and the back to snow for northern IL.  That would be a pretty cool evolution of weather down here.  Doesn't happen like that very often.  

 

EDIT:  COD forecast soundings don't look like they're working.  Time stamp looks fine, but the sounding forecast definitely doesn't look right at 108hrs.  Maybe it's because the model is still loading.

[OntarioChaser]

Liking this trend...

[Snowstorms]

Hard to tell what the 0z Ukmet is showing based on the meteo maps, but it doesn't seem like anything big, like what the GFS is showing. Probably another overrunning event on the Ukmet?  

[Hoosier]

New GFS buries the northern half of Iowa, southeast MN, most of WI, and about the northern half of lower MI.  Interesting front end thump of snow to heavy rain, and the back to snow for northern IL.  That would be a pretty cool evolution of weather down here.  Doesn't happen like that very often.  

 

EDIT:  COD forecast soundings don't look like they're working.  Time stamp looks fine, but the sounding forecast definitely doesn't look right at 108hrs.  Maybe it's because the model is still loading.

 

 

Noticed that same problem earlier when looking at the 18z GFS.

[OntarioChaser]

Hard to tell what the 0z Ukmet is showing based on the meteo maps, but it doesn't seem like anything big, like what the GFS is showing. Probably another overrunning event on the Ukmet?  

Really too hard to tell with the large time increments but I'd say it could be similar to the 12z GEM solution.  GFS and Euro are on the northern train while the GEM and UK are taking a southern approach.

[cyclone77]

Noticed that same problem earlier when looking at the 18z GFS.

 

 

Hmmm, interesting.

 

And Twisterdata is only out to 54hrs lol.  

[OntarioChaser]

Gem's solution would give a corridor of solid ice accretion given the fact that some areas are in the ZR for ~12 hours.

[Brewers]

Trying to build a consensus.... GEFS are farther south. 

 

 

 

 

I'll take the cluster of lows over La Crosse.

[Chicago WX]

0z Euro would probably create some issues here...dumping 3.60" of rain on the LAF (OKK jackpots with 4.00").

 

Hope it's wrong.

[*IndyMeso*]

Excellent post on IND's discussion by Ryan this morning. Really hits it all.

 

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 258 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS
PIECES OF ENERGY ALOFT EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U S
FOLLOWED BY THE TROUGH AXIS ITSELF MOVING EAST INTO THE REGION BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
IMPACT FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES IN THE WAKE OF THE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM
FOR MONDAY...AND SHOULD SERVE TO GIVE THE REGION A BREATHER BETWEEN
WEATHER SYSTEMS ON THE ORDER OF 18 TO 24 HOURS. SURFACE WAVE SET
TO SPIN UP OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT AS ENERGY EJECTS
OUT FROM THE PARENT TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL SWING E/NE AND TRACK
QUICKLY INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING AND BRING WITH IT A
PLETHORA OF MESSY PROBLEMS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. RIDGING DEVELOPING
DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH SUPPORTS MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW WITH THE
SURFACE WAVE TRACKING THROUGH OR NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. OP GFS
SHOWING ITS USUAL PROGRESSIVE BIAS IN THE MID RANGE IN BRINGING
PRECIP IN TOO QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF THE
DEPARTING HIGH. LIKE THE LOOK OF THE ECMWF/GGEM WHICH DELAYS MOST
PRECIP UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.

WARM ADVECTION WILL ALREADY BE ONGOING WHEN PRECIP STARTS...AND EXPECT
PRECIP TYPE ISSUES FROM THE GET GO WITH A GROWING LIKELIHOOD THAT
FREEZING RAIN IS THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THE REFRESHED SNOWPACK COURTESY OF THE WEEKEND STORM WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN DURATION OF FROZEN PRECIP AS THE NEAR
SURFACE/GROUND TEMPS WILL LAG THE LOW LEVEL TEMP RISES. MODEL
THERMAL PROFILES ARE ALREADY SUGGESTIVE THAT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL
MIDDAY TUESDAY IN SOME PORTIONS OF THE REGION TO WARM SUFFICIENTLY
FOR ALL RAIN. IF THE IMPACT OF THE SNOWCOVER IS UNDERMINED BY THE
MODELS WHATSOEVER...THE ICING POTENTIAL COULD BE EVEN MORE
SIGNIFICANT. DO NOT EXPECT TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS UNTIL LATER
IN THE WEEKEND.

WHILE THE ICING THREAT IS A GROWING ISSUE...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN OVER A FROZEN GROUND AND SNOW COVER POSES EVEN GREATER
CONCERNS. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE WAVE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. PRECIP WATER VALUES ARE PARTICULARLY ALARMING...MAXING OUT
BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.50 INCHES TUESDAY EVENING. THESE LEVELS WOULD
PLACE THE REGION NEAR AND ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR
CLIMATOLOGICAL PRECIP WATER VALUES IN MARCH. POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO THE PRECIP AS WELL AND MAY NEED TO ADD AN
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION INTO THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL CERTAINLY LOOK PLAUSIBLE AND
WITH MOST OF THIS BEING CONVERTED TO PURE RUNOFF WITH THE FROZEN
GROUND...FLOODING CONCERNS ARE VALID. FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD
FINALLY MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIP ENDING LATE DAY...LIKELY AS
A RAIN/SNOW MIX. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

STILL PLENTY TO HASH OUT AND THE WEEKEND WINTER STORM WILL HAVE SOME
SAY IN HOW THIS ALL TRANSPIRES. AS STATED ABOVE THOUGH...CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH ICING...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING ALL
POTENTIAL CONCERNS. ENCOURAGE HOOSIERS TO STAY ABREAST OF THE
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

[Brewers]

Despite the random missing images on the e-wall 6z GEFS page, quite a few deeper solutions. I guess my concern at this time is we phase too late and get a flatter solution sort of what the Op runs have been putting out. I have noticed the GFS trying to push things along quicker than the Euro though.

[Chitown Storm]

Despite the random missing images on the e-wall 6z GEFS page, quite a few deeper solutions. I guess my concern at this time is we phase too late and get a flatter solution sort of what the Op runs have been putting out. I have noticed the GFS trying to push things along quicker than the Euro though.

It wouldn't be the first time things phase too late. We need this thing to dig and keep that arctic air from coming down too fast. Otherwise it's another south win.

[A-L-E-K]

i have no idea what to think about this one