smoof Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Some of the other NAM runs look decent for us to get 3 to 5 inches still. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2015030200&fh=69&xpos=0&ypos=582 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015030200/nam4km_asnow_us_21.png those maps are contaminated with sleet / freezing rain showing up as snow, posting the really sad 0z nam most accurate snow map in a new post in a min.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 0z NAM sad snow map :axe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Snow maps are worthless in a ptype issue set up. Snd it goes both ways...they may show too much or too little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Snow maps are worthless in a ptype issue set up. Snd it goes both ways...they may show too much or too little. the IWM maps do a really good job showing just snow and filtering out the sleet / zr crap, but they are obviously not perfect, but the best i know of they do seem to fail when you are on the northern edge of a storm with a sharp cutoff of precip and dry air, they overestimate ratios in those areas, pixie dust doesn't add up.... i learned that from ghd1 and sb / ghd2 storms lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 For what it's worth, my analysis shows that surface temperatures are currently higher than what the 12z GFS predicted across much of the subforum. This may limit freezing rain accumulations. surface_temps.png Can you do that type of analysis for the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 For those interested in ice, the 00z NAM has a wide area of .1-.2" type ice amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjk254 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Can you post that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Some of the other NAM runs look decent for us to get 3 to 5 inches still. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2015030200&fh=69&xpos=0&ypos=582 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015030200/nam4km_asnow_us_21.png Quite a big ZR/Sleet swath on those NAM maps. Normally I don't get to happy about freezing rain or mixed events, but this one has me interested. If the right conditions play out, this could be the first decent icing event in NW OH, Srn MI, and Nrn IN quite awhile. Also, I wouldn't write any details out til tomorrow. This winter has been built on last minute shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 0z GFS looks weaker / south / drier / hair cooler so far through 39hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 0z GFS looks weaker / south / drier / hair cooler so far through 39hr Yup didn't buy the NAM north solution at all, most south and cool in a few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 0z GFS Snow Map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Quite a big ZR/Sleet swath on those NAM maps. Normally I don't get to happy about freezing rain or mixed events, but this one has me interested. If the right conditions play out, this could be the first decent icing event in NW OH, Srn MI, and Nrn IN quite awhile. Also, I wouldn't write any details out til tomorrow. This winter has been built on last minute shifts. At this point in time, I would rather see an ice storm than a mixed bag. At least then instead of driving in this crap there's a chance I won't have to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Can you do that type of analysis for the NAM? While it is possible, I would need to have a heads up first to manually run the script. The CRON job has only been collecting data on the GFS, so I'd have to hardcode in a run for the NAM. One complication is that the there is a ~3 lag between when surface data is collected vs. when the models actually update for scraping. I suppose I can collect 6z surface observations at midnight and run them against the 6 hour forecast for the 00z NAM. Update: I may not run it on the NAM, but I will certainly share the results of the GFS 00z initialization and 6 hour forecast at around 12:30 tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Blizzard Watch posted for the Minnesota River Valley to the west of the TC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 While it is possible, I would need to have a heads up first to manually run the script. The CRON job has only been collecting data on the GFS, so I'd have to hardcode in a run for the NAM. One complication is that the there is a ~3 lag between when surface data is collected vs. when the models actually update for scraping. I suppose I can collect 6z surface observations at midnight and run them against the 6 hour forecast for the 00z NAM. Update: I may not run it on the NAM, but I will certainly share the results of the GFS 00z initialization and 6 hour forecast at around 12:30 tonight. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 00z surface temperature initialization verification analysis: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Storm is looking less impressive as far as precip production for northern IL. Looks like the initial slug of moisture early Tue is somewhat decent, but after that it looks very light and non-eventful. All in all this looks like a very benign and forgettable event down this way. Unfortunately the pattern following this system looks boring as hell, so the fact that this storm is a snoozer stings a bit for many of us. Hopefully the MSP/DLL peeps can at least get something satisfying out of this ho-hum system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Dreading tomorrow. Im almost thinking of taking off work. Its going to be a nightmare traveling. surface temps will not get that warm, and the ground is so cold. This screams ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Storm is looking less impressive as far as precip production for northern IL. Looks like the initial slug of moisture early Tue is somewhat decent, but after that it looks very light and non-eventful. All in all this looks like a very benign and forgettable event down this way. Unfortunately the pattern following this system looks boring as hell, so the fact that this storm is a snoozer stings a bit for many of us. Hopefully the MSP/DLL peeps can at least get something satisfying out of this ho-hum system. Benign is a good description. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Incredible how every storm in the past several weeks have had a south trend EXCEPT this storm. The only storm Southern MI needed a south trend and Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Decent hit on the RGEM but cannot afford even a mm shift north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Incredible how every storm in the past several weeks have had a south trend EXCEPT this storm. The only storm Southern MI needed a south trend and Will get 2-3" out of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Will get 2-3" out of this Nickle ... ... sorry after watching all these series of storms to the south the past couple week with 8"+ totals ... 2-3" just doesn't sound all that exciting. Normally I wait till the March equinox to get into the major snowstorm or spring mentality. But this year I am in that mode already (likely due to the early Nov start to winter and the awesome long winter last year). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Incredible how every storm in the past several weeks have had a south trend EXCEPT this storm. The only storm Southern MI needed a south trend and 1. It's not like we're missing out on a big dog. Snowfall amounts in the "cold sector" look to be 3-5" at best. While the outcome for us won't be ideal, it's nothing to get too disappointed about either, especially after an above average snowfall season, one big dog already and a top 20 snowiest February on record. It's also about time the areas that have been screwed the most (Northern Lower MI and MSP) due to the unfavorable pattern we've had for southern stream lakes cutters got in on a formidable synoptic snow event. Besides, now that we're into Met. Spring after the coldest Feb. In 140 years, it's been long time to torch things up a bit. You snow birds will always have next winter.2. My, oh my how out quickly we forget. Didn't GHD 2 make a shift in our favor during the 11th hour? There was no whining then about mother nature shifting storms a certain direction... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 This isn't looking too impressive...although the winds could be. We still need another 15 inches of snow to make normal here.... Its still going to be a mess for driving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Probably won't matter much, but the 12z NAM did come in a bit cooler/south for tomorrow. Still a little ways to go for a non-rain/ice solution... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 1. It's not like we're missing out on a big dog. Snowfall amounts in the "cold sector" look to be 3-5" at best. While the outcome for us won't be ideal, it's nothing to get too disappointed about either, especially after an above average snowfall season, one big dog already and a top 20 snowiest February on record. It's also about time the areas that have been screwed the most (Northern Lower MI and MSP) due to the unfavorable pattern we've had for southern stream lakes cutters got in on a formidable synoptic snow event. Besides, now that we're into Met. Spring after the coldest Feb. In 140 years, it's been long time to torch things up a bit. You snow birds will always have next winter. 2. My, oh my how out quickly we forget. Didn't GHD 2 make a shift in our favor during the 11th hour? There was no whining then about mother nature shifting storms a certain direction... I totally recall GHD 2 and I am not talking about GHD 2. I haven't forgot one bit that it shifted northward. Since that storm the trend has been south and has been very repeatable until this storm in which the was no south trend and this is 100% what I was referencing. You may not care but I personally would very much prefer the 5" verse 2" slop to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I totally recall GHD 2 and I am not talking about GHD 2. I haven't forgot one bit that it shifted northward. Since that storm the trend has been south and has been very repeatable until this storm in which the was no south trend and this is 100% what I was referencing. You may not care but I personally would very much prefer the 5" verse 2" slop to rain. We've had a couple 3-4" events with no slop/rain in addition to GHD 2.As far as snow flying in the air and sticking to the ground, it's not like we've been completely shut out... We can't win them all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Given the 10AM onset of precip. the icing issues at midday might not be that extreme on asphalt surfaces. The problem will be on the rural or side streets which are still snow covered and perhaps shaded North sides of buildings. The back side could become rather at nightmare with dropping temps no radiant heat and tons of moisture. I'm expecting three perhaps four rounds of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 3-6" in the point with gusts to 35 mph tomorrow. Blizzard conditions just to our west. Bring it, then let's melt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.