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March 3-4th Winter Storm Potential


OntarioChaser

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I'm confused...is that supposed to match this one? That shows more snow for 48 hours than the Earl Barker map for 120.

 

http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=GRR

 

Probably just a difference in their snow ratio algorithms. Snow ratios might be hard to figure out with this one assuming it doesn't end up going more north and being sleet / freezing rain, I've had WAA front end thumps like this overperform and have higher ratios than I expected quite a few times before but who knows what this one will do. :D

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Current 12z YYZ model summary

UKIE: All frozen--SN/PL mix(0.6-0.8" QPF)

GEM: 6-7hrs of SN/+SN, 3 hrs of PL, 3-4hrs of -RN/FZDZ

GFS: 2-4" of SN followed by -RN/RN

ECM: Pending

NAM: Brief SN---> +PL---> -ZR----> -RN. (0.3" QPF).

 

It's a mess.

 

None of those outputs excite me in any shape or form.

 

Give me a legit storm or give me warmth.

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 6 to 8 inches of snow/sleet don't excite you? I'm guessing it's because of the mix?

 

UKMET's output would doubtfully drop 6-8" on the ground. Ratios would really have to pan out, as well as precip type.

 

We've had a handful of systems over the last two seasons dump 6-10". We haven't had a 12"+ system since February 2013 and that was after a 5 or 6-year snow storm drought. 

 

It has been Toronto airport's coldest month in recorded history. I'm quite tired of winter. Unless there's going to be a really awesome storm (high winds, huge accumulations, or impressive snow rates), then I'm ready for warm anomalies. Unfortunately, this system does not look to dump huge snow or have high winds for YYZ, nor will there be sustained +SN by the looks of it. Hence, uninterested.

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UKMET's output would doubtfully drop 6-8" on the ground. Ratios would really have to pan out, as well as precip type.

 

We've had a handful of systems over the last two seasons dump 6-10". We haven't had a 12"+ system since February 2013 and that was after a 5 or 6-year snow storm drought. 

 

It has been Toronto airport's coldest month in recorded history. I'm quite tired of winter. Unless there's going to be a really awesome storm (high winds, huge accumulations, or impressive snow rates), then I'm ready for warm anomalies. Unfortunately, this system does not look to dump huge snow or have high winds for YYZ, nor will there be sustained +SN by the looks of it. Hence, uninterested.

I think this winter is breaking a lot of people haha. Im still going to be excited for 2-4" and 0.2-0.3" of freezing rain. Also another reason I will never give up on snow in March is because chances are its the last winter storm you see. Unless you live in the higher elevations once March 15-20th rolls around Im pretty much given a slop of 1" while higher elevations get the 4" 

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This storm defines our winter. Uninspiring. Model avg is around 0.25" and looking at soundings I don't see anything that jumps out at me. SREF mean has been consistent with 0.35-0.40" but for now I'm going with 2-4" of snow. 

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I think this winter is breaking a lot of people haha. Im still going to be excited for 2-4" and 0.2-0.3" of freezing rain. Also another reason I will never give up on snow in March is because chances are its the last winter storm you see. Unless you live in the higher elevations once March 15-20th rolls around Im pretty much given a slop of 1" while higher elevations get the 4" 

 

I was very excited about the ice storm in December 2013, but after going through the aftermath of that, I never want to see ZR again!

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For what it's worth, my analysis shows that surface temperatures are currently higher than what the 12z GFS predicted across much of the subforum. This may limit freezing rain accumulations.

 

attachicon.gifsurface_temps.pngattachicon.gifsurface_temps.png

 

Great job in your analysis!!!

 

Assuming big snow potential is off the table ATP, I think most here would take a cold rain over ice or *(expletive)*. So hopefully you're correct.

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21z SREF plumes still with a mean of 5", almost the same as the 15z. But the 21z lost 2 big dogs over 10". So a handful of models increased snow totals.

The potential torch run on some of the models has me thinking spring and warm temps. Let's get this snow system out of the way. Onward and upward.

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Hmm yep, 0z NAM tracking the low a bit NW of Green Bay this run, it's most north run so far, still riding the 850mb 0c snow line here in Central MI yet again.

 

Argh. I have been waiting for it to sink south like it has with all these other systems...but of course not. Pretty much all the models are showing my area getting 4 to 6 inches except the NAM. I've noticed that when the NAM disagrees with them, it almost always seems to win. GRR NWS is hugging the NAM too. Well, hopefully the MN folk can get some good snows.....

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Argh. I have been waiting for it to sink south like it has with all these other systems...but of course not. Pretty much all the models are showing my area getting 4 to 6 inches except the NAM. I've noticed that when the NAM disagrees with them, it almost always seems to win. GRR NWS is hugging the NAM too. Well, hopefully the MN folk can get some good snows.....

 

I dissed the NAM early in the season saying it wasn't so good picking up on trends after it's last upgrade, but well that was my mistake it has been very hot on picking up on north trends and decent on south trends too, I pretty much have to take it seriously after watching it over the many many storms there have been this season to track.

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I dissed the NAM early in the season saying it wasn't so good picking up on trends after it's last upgrade, but well that was my mistake it has been very hot on picking up on north trends and decent on south trends too, I pretty much have to take it seriously after watching it over the many many storms there have been this season to track.

Storms everywhere but here. lol  I saw that Mt. Pleasant has only had 17 inches of snow this winter? That's crazy.

 

The NAM is a mess for all of Lower Michigan now. According to the NAM, this system is fizzling into a dud.

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Storms everywhere but here. lol  I saw that Mt. Pleasant has only had 17 inches of snow this winter? That's crazy.

 

The NAM is a mess for all of Lower Michigan now. According to the NAM, this system is fizzling into a dud.

hah They might only have 17 at mount pleasant, but i got lucky being 15 miles NE of them and got one 7.5" storm just a few miles north of the mix line on jan 3rd-4th, I would have to add up my snow log but I must be at at least 30" now normal is 40" or a bit above :D

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Storms everywhere but here. lol  I saw that Mt. Pleasant has only had 17 inches of snow this winter? That's crazy.

 

The NAM is a mess for all of Lower Michigan now. According to the NAM, this system is fizzling into a dud.

 

I'm sure APX's discussion tomorrow morning will deliver some good laughs if the other models join the NAM...:lol:

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hah They might only have 17 at mount pleasant, but i got lucky being 15 miles NE of them and got one 7.5" storm just a few miles north of the mix line on jan 3rd-4th, I would have to add up my snow log but I must be at at least 30" now normal is 40" or a bit above :D

 

How much snow do you have on the ground over there?

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