Bango Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I've been just sitting back and reading for this one. There isn't much more I can add that y'all have went over and showed. I would go 4-6 for KTRI and KTYS. 6-8 for KCHA. I think the next few hours will be very telling on radar for how far northwest the band gets. HRRR and RAP have the northern shield not moving past the state line below Memphis/Nashville. It is knocking on the borders door right now. I wouldn't be concerned in Chatty. Dynamical cooling and wet bulbs should keep you mostly snow. Maybe some rain/sleet at the start of the event. Charlotte to RDU are going to get crushed. Sounds right to me man (TRI). I can't imagine we have the upside of the last big system that busted dramatically, but I don't think we have much downside bust potential either, looks to be a perfect hone in on 4-6 inches. As I type this I am amazed at my lack of excitement for 4-6 haha after experiencing the last few weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Yeah I don't buy that hole for a minute. Nor do I buy 15" near Starkville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I've been just sitting back and reading for this one. There isn't much more I can add that y'all have went over and showed. I would go 4-6 for KTRI and KTYS. 6-8 for KCHA. I think the next few hours will be very telling on radar for how far northwest the band gets. HRRR and RAP have the northern shield not moving past the state line below Memphis/Nashville. It is knocking on the borders door right now. I wouldn't be concerned in Chatty. Dynamical cooling and wet bulbs should keep you mostly snow. Maybe some rain/sleet at the start of the event. Charlotte to RDU are going to get crushed. I like your projections!! I feel comfortable with those, and Jeff's and maybe a blend of the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The question I have...Have the models caught-up or is this a case where the precip is growing so quick on the western side that models don't catch real time. This trend has been the case all winter with precip not being robust enough. Approaching spring time helps. Makes them juicier. I don't think they will catch on until it is almost happening. To be honest after last weekend's event I don't have much trust in the HRRR and RAP. They were advertising 1-3 inches and I ended up with 8. With all that said this is a much different situation than last week. Last week was a thermal problem that those short term models had. They were trying to warm us up too quick. Here in this situation most of us are concerned with precip shield placement and intensity. Last week the HRRR and RAP were a little bit weak on the intensity but overall did okay. I wouldn't trust those models too much around Chattanooga. They will probably show too much rain mixing in. At least in my experience last weekend they were too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I don't think they will catch on until it is almost happening. To be honest after last weekend's event I don't have much trust in the HRRR and RAP. They were advertising 1-3 inches and I ended up with 8. With all that said this is a much different situation than last week. Last week was a thermal problem that those short term models had. They were trying to warm us up too quick. Here in this situation most of us are concerned with precip shield placement and intensity. Last week the HRRR and RAP were a little bit weak on the intensity but overall did okay. I wouldn't trust those models too much around Chattanooga. They will probably show too much rain mixing in. At least in my experience last weekend they were too warm. My knock on the RAP is it is usually too low for the northern Valley. I really want to see the 18z NAM before locking in...but 3-6" for the eastern Valley seems about right...w/ locally higher amounts further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I've gone from thin high and midlevel overcast to full thick overcast over the last hour. Also of note I'm starting to get gusty N and NE winds gusting to around 15 now. The winds are a little surprise to me, guess its a sign of a strengthening storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 FWIW the radar is really lit-up to the southwest w/ a NE trajectory. Looks like E TN will be under the comma head. Now, if true...hope this baby really hits bombogenesis on its way to Hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Big differences between global and short range models...big. Just looking at the radar, do returns begin showing in Chattanooga before rush hour? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 17z HRRR is beefy, considering it's still snowing plateau eastward: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Yes. Let alone Chatt.... Returns before rush for TYS lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 No ground truth here yet. Just cloudy. 34 at my jobsite in Cleveland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 No ground truth here yet. Just cloudy. 34 at my jobsite in Cleveland. Yep the Virga is here too, almost to knox now. We just have to remember that is the grease for the wheels that are coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 17z HRRR is beefy, considering it's still snowing plateau eastward: I am going to leave the map up w/ these comments. The precip shield has backed westward about 100 miles today on this model. It isn't so much that the storm is moving northward, though it has a tad. It has more to do w/ the models recognizing an expanding precip shield for a deepening slp. Remember, we get pretty good snows when lows track just north of the GOM through southern GA and to Hatteras, preferably inside Hatteras. Prob won't go inside Hatteras this time, but the storm may be strong enough to overcome that distance as it strengthens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Virga is going to make it to Kentucky before 3PM. Its just amazing how under modeled this has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 are there any current reports of precip reaching the ground in TN yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Is the ULL modeled to track across East TN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I would like to see this part of the precip shield below Memphis work its way N/NE. So far it is having a harder time doing so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 That is a sharp heavy cutoff line inching it,s way toward Memphis I would like to see this part of the precip shield below Memphis work its way N/NE. So far it is having a harder time doing so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 18z RAP: 18z HRRR: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 are there any current reports of precip reaching the ground in TN yet? AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 134 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015 .DISCUSSION...CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS LIGHT ECHOES NOW MOVING INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE, ALTHOUGH TEMPS ACROSS THE MID STATE ARE FOR THE MOST PART SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER, LARGE DEW POINT SPREADS (15-20F) DO LEAVE SOME ROOM FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING. TEMPS UPSTREAM WHERE IT HAS ALREADY BEEN PRECIPITATING ARE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING, SO BELIEVE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WE SEE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SNOW. LATEST HPC SNOWFALL PROGS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE AMOUNTS WE HAVE BEEN FORECASTING, SO AM GOING TO LEAVE THE SNOW GRIDS ALONE THIS FORECAST. NAM BRINGS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE BETWEEN 00Z & 06Z, WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z. LOOK FOR SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TOMORROW AS A SECONDARY WAVE PUSHES THROUGH BUT WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEKEND WHEN THE NEXT ACTIVE SYSTEM MOVES IN. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SPRING-LIKE FRONTAL SYSTEM ON TUESDAY AS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET APPEAR TO SET THE TABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE WE TURN COLDER AGAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnmetalhead Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 15z SREF Means TRI: 4.71 (Large cluster of members between 2 and 5, and another smaller cluster right around 8 inches)TYS: 5.02 (Also a large cluster of members between 2 and 5, and another cluster of members from 7-8.5)CHA: 7.03 (Every member but 3 clustered between 5.24-10.61. Lowest member still 2.45)BNA: 0.93 (A lot of members between .24-.74. Seven members between 1-2.67, bringing up the mean) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippity Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Okay, what makes me a bit nervous is that most of the models dump snow to HSV's west, then less snow over north AL, then homogeneous again over Georgia and the Carolinas. I sure hope that doesn't happen and we get plenty of snow here. Any thoughts, e,parts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 HRRR seems to dry slot us, because of the convection down south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnmetalhead Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 HRRR seems to dry slot us, because of the convection down south? Don't like the looks of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWonderland Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 are there any current reports of precip reaching the ground in TN yet? Oak Ridge is overcast. No precip yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 HRRR seems to dry slot us, because of the convection down south? Lets just hope that convective banding across the gulf, FL and GA doesn't get that strong. Right now the precip shield has a lot of convection but fairly disorganized, if it can stay disorganized I think we will be ok. We'll have to watch for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 MRX: 000FXUS64 KMRX 252008AFDMRXAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN308 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...A LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER IS DELAYING PRECIP AT THE GROUND OVER SOUTHERNAREAS...BUT GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THIS LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN SNOWBEGINNING NEAR CHATTANOOGA AROUND 22-23Z...WITH ACCUMULATIONSSTARTING AN HOUR OR TWO LATER AS TEMPERATURES DROP FROM EVAPORATIVECOOLING. HEAVY TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED AT TIMES THISEVENING AS AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING BETWEEN UPPER JET STREAKS PROVIDESSTRONG VERTICAL ASCENT. THIS LIFT APPEARS STRONGEST OVER SE TN...SWNC..AND THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. BY 06Z WE START TO SEE DRIERAIR MOVING INTO SOUTHERN AREAS AT THE DENDRITE GROWTH LEVEL...ANDTHE AREA OF BEST FORCING MOVES INTO NE TN AND SW VA. POPS WILL DROPBACK TO A CHANCE NORTH TO SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH BY EARLY THURSDAYMORNING...WITH LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AFTERTHIS TIME. THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORYAREAS AND TIMING WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.A NW UPSLOPE FLOW AND SOME STEEPENING LAPSE RATES MAY KEEP SOME SNOWSHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN NORTHERN AREAS AND THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAYAFTERNOON AND NIGHT. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THIS WILL ADD MUCHADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE TOTAL...AS UPSLOPE WINDS AREONLY 10-15 KTS AND MOISTURE IS SHALLOW. FOR TEMPERATURES...WILLUNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SNOWCOVER...AND FOR THE EXPECTED OVERCAST CLOUD COVER THAT IS EXPECTEDTO LINGER THROUGH THURDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Afternoon disco from MRX: .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...A LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER IS DELAYING PRECIP AT THE GROUND OVER SOUTHERNAREAS...BUT GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THIS LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN SNOWBEGINNING NEAR CHATTANOOGA AROUND 22-23Z...WITH ACCUMULATIONSSTARTING AN HOUR OR TWO LATER AS TEMPERATURES DROP FROM EVAPORATIVECOOLING. HEAVY TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED AT TIMES THISEVENING AS AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING BETWEEN UPPER JET STREAKS PROVIDESSTRONG VERTICAL ASCENT. THIS LIFT APPEARS STRONGEST OVER SE TN...SWNC..AND THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. BY 06Z WE START TO SEE DRIERAIR MOVING INTO SOUTHERN AREAS AT THE DENDRITE GROWTH LEVEL...ANDTHE AREA OF BEST FORCING MOVES INTO NE TN AND SW VA. POPS WILL DROPBACK TO A CHANCE NORTH TO SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH BY EARLY THURSDAYMORNING...WITH LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AFTERTHIS TIME. THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORYAREAS AND TIMING WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.A NW UPSLOPE FLOW AND SOME STEEPENING LAPSE RATES MAY KEEP SOME SNOWSHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN NORTHERN AREAS AND THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAYAFTERNOON AND NIGHT. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THIS WILL ADD MUCHADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE TOTAL...AS UPSLOPE WINDS AREONLY 10-15 KTS AND MOISTURE IS SHALLOW. FOR TEMPERATURES...WILLUNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SNOWCOVER...AND FOR THE EXPECTED OVERCAST CLOUD COVER THAT IS EXPECTEDTO LINGER THROUGH THURDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Is the ULL modeled to track across East TN? Parts of the the 500 mb low should track over east TN. Here is the current position of the upper low and the forecasted positions. I will say the NAM has been pretty darn good with this system so far. This storm would of been a doozy if the 500mb low would of stayed intact more and stayed negative tilt over the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 Thank you for the feedback on my previous post. All snow HSV to CHA is settled. Dual polarization radar correlation coefficient shows all snow at/north of the blue line. Shows up best out of KBMX. Dual pole physics are superior to some grid based algorithms, so I am now really rest assured no debacle in Chattanooga. Everybody enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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