Carvers Gap Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 15z RAP total Stove, that doesn't include what is already on the ground does it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Stove, that doesn't include what is already on the ground does it? Nope, just what falls during the 18 hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Saw on the SE forum that balloons are being sent into the storm. Should be some changes on short range models when that data is ingested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Big differences between global and short range models...big. Just looking at the radar, do returns begin showing in Chattanooga before rush hour? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 http://weather.graphics/hrrr/hrrr_gif.php It's free today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippity Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 NWS is sticking with 2-4 inches for Huntsville area; that's quite a difference than what Robert/WxSouth has forecasted. Local tv Mets are keeping the snow totals conservative, too, so at this point I have no idea what to expect. I will post jobs as long as we have power. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hun/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippity Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 If this map holds true, the Tennessee and Alabama will get slammed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 16z RAP total snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Virga almost to Nashvegas already! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Virga almost to Nashvegas already! thats good,we got dry air ..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 thats good,we got dry air ..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 thats good,we got dry air ..lol 4 years worth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippity Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Brad Travis, WAFF, reports " heavy sleet in Cullman, AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChattChaser Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Nerves in rush. Something just doesn't seem right. I feel like we are going to get warm-nosed here at the last minute and barely get any snow or the precip shield doesn't swing far enough north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Nerves in rush. Something just doesn't seem right. I feel like we are going to get warm-nosed here at the last minute and barely get any snow or the precip shield doesn't swing far enough north Well you most certainly will experience mix precip for a bit at the beginning but, it will not take long to dynamically cool at Chatt. Dewpoint is 18 in Chatt. I understand you being nervous because Chatt misses out a lot, but what Chatt is good at is when it does get it, it usually gets it good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 The HRRR and RAP are just now getting into their useful time frames. They go out 15-18 hours but are better within 8-12 hours, maybe just 6-8 hr. Meanwhile op models have been trending up just about everywhere except MEM/BNA since 00Z last night. With the 12Z NAM I'm over my 850-phobia in CHA. Regarding Nashville, regrettably the NWS is pretty confident in dry air delaying precip and keeping totals in the low range. Hate hearing that for two reasons; we have snow starved members there, and I was forecasting higher. Memphis is on a sharp edge of snow but hopefully northern Mississippi will share. MD 96 valid for Mississippi this morning.. Birmingham to Atlanta is another zone of snow disappointment. 850 low is at/north of them and will cause more rain than snow. Even the north ATL 'burbs are looking kind of wet. That is not news, but I think we were all hoping for our friends down there. However it is a zero sum game. The shift north means party time from North Alabama to East Tennessee. Northwest Georgia and the Mountains were always in good shape. Despite trouble farther west I still believe in Plateau magic with this storm. The 850 low is set to track from central Alabama through northeastern Georgia. Inverted trough at 850 shows up over Tenn but the main 850 low is south. Temps at 700/500 are only a few degrees above perfect dendrite growth, forecast to drop close to or to that threshold. Cook's Method, an old school 200 mb WAA technique, yields up to 9 inches in the favored areas. I have no problem forecasting 4-7 inches from HSV through CHA and 3-6 inches from Knox through MRX. Tri Cities are tricky with terrain and these temps. JC may start out slow but don't give up. Other two look good for 3-6 inches too. Plateau is going to do better than 2 inches; I'm going 3-4 inches up there but 5 would not surprise me middle/lower Plateau. Hard to imagine Chatty but not Plateau. What could go wrong? If one is concerned about JC, you must be concerned about Chatty. Well I don't see JC going to rain, maybe just lighter snow up front. Chatty rain seems pretty hard to do with wetbulbs likely settling at/below freezing. Anything can happen in the South, but I can only see all snow scenarios for Tennessee. North Alabama's Cloudmont Ski Area on Lookout Mountain will have real snow. Ski Bama! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Nerves in rush. Something just doesn't seem right. I feel like we are going to get warm-nosed here at the last minute and barely get any snow or the precip shield doesn't swing far enough north Big storms always have mixing issues. If I had to choose anywhere in the Valley, I would choose Chattanooga. Should be a fine snow storm for you all. You would be hard pressed to find a model or met to say otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The HRRR and RAP are just now getting into their useful time frames. They go out 15-18 hours but are better within 8-12 hours, maybe just 6-8 hr. Meanwhile op models have been trending up just about everywhere except MEM/BNA since 00Z last night. With the 12Z NAM I'm over my 850-phobia in CHA. Regarding Nashville, regrettably the NWS is pretty confident in dry air delaying precip and keeping totals in the low range. Hate hearing that for two reasons; we have snow starved members there, and I was forecasting higher. Memphis is on a sharp edge of snow but hopefully northern Mississippi will share. MD 96 valid for Mississippi this morning.. Birmingham to Atlanta is another zone of snow disappointment. 850 low is at/north of them and will cause more rain than snow. Even the north ATL 'burbs are looking kind of wet. That is not news, but I think we were all hoping for our friends down there. However it is a zero sum game. The shift north means party time from North Alabama to East Tennessee. Northwest Georgia and the Mountains were always in good shape. Despite trouble farther west I still believe in Plateau magic with this storm. The 850 low is set to track from central Alabama through northeastern Georgia. Inverted trough at 850 shows up over Tenn but the main 850 low is south. Temps at 700/500 are only a few degrees above perfect dendrite growth, forecast to drop close to or to that threshold. Cook's Method, an old school 200 mb WAA technique, yields up to 9 inches in the favored areas. I have no problem forecasting 4-7 inches from HSV through CHA and 3-6 inches from Knox through MRX. Tri Cities are tricky with terrain and these temps. JC may start out slow but don't give up. Other two look good for 3-6 inches too. Plateau is going to do better than 2 inches; I'm going 3-4 inches up there but 5 would not surprise me middle/lower Plateau. Hard to imagine Chatty but not Plateau. What could go wrong? If one is concerned about JC, you must be concerned about Chatty. Well I don't see JC going to rain, maybe just lighter snow up front. Chatty rain seems pretty hard to do with wetbulbs likely settling at/below freezing. Anything can happen in the South, but I can only see all snow scenarios for Tennessee. North Alabama's Cloudmont Ski Area on Lookout Mountain will have real snow. Ski Bama! Great write-up as usual. Good luck to your guys!!! Hoping this over performs and you all beat even your forecast...which has pretty nice amounts anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The HRRR and RAP are just now getting into their useful time frames. They go out 15-18 hours but are better within 8-12 hours, maybe just 6-8 hr. Meanwhile op models have been trending up just about everywhere except MEM/BNA since 00Z last night. With the 12Z NAM I'm over my 850-phobia in CHA. Regarding Nashville, regrettably the NWS is pretty confident in dry air delaying precip and keeping totals in the low range. Hate hearing that for two reasons; we have snow starved members there, and I was forecasting higher. Memphis is on a sharp edge of snow but hopefully northern Mississippi will share. MD 96 valid for Mississippi this morning.. Birmingham to Atlanta is another zone of snow disappointment. 850 low is at/north of them and will cause more rain than snow. Even the north ATL 'burbs are looking kind of wet. That is not news, but I think we were all hoping for our friends down there. However it is a zero sum game. The shift north means party time from North Alabama to East Tennessee. Northwest Georgia and the Mountains were always in good shape. Despite trouble farther west I still believe in Plateau magic with this storm. The 850 low is set to track from central Alabama through northeastern Georgia. Inverted trough at 850 shows up over Tenn but the main 850 low is south. Temps at 700/500 are only a few degrees above perfect dendrite growth, forecast to drop close to or to that threshold. Cook's Method, an old school 200 mb WAA technique, yields up to 9 inches in the favored areas. I have no problem forecasting 4-7 inches from HSV through CHA and 3-6 inches from Knox through MRX. Tri Cities are tricky with terrain and these temps. JC may start out slow but don't give up. Other two look good for 3-6 inches too. Plateau is going to do better than 2 inches; I'm going 3-4 inches up there but 5 would not surprise me middle/lower Plateau. Hard to imagine Chatty but not Plateau. What could go wrong? If one is concerned about JC, you must be concerned about Chatty. Well I don't see JC going to rain, maybe just lighter snow up front. Chatty rain seems pretty hard to do with wetbulbs likely settling at/below freezing. Anything can happen in the South, but I can only see all snow scenarios for Tennessee. North Alabama's Cloudmont Ski Area on Lookout Mountain will have real snow. Ski Bama! Thank you Jeff! Appreciate you wisdom! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 How bout them 12z Euro apples: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The HRRR and RAP are just now getting into their useful time frames. They go out 15-18 hours but are better within 8-12 hours, maybe just 6-8 hr. Meanwhile op models have been trending up just about everywhere except MEM/BNA since 00Z last night. With the 12Z NAM I'm over my 850-phobia in CHA. Regarding Nashville, regrettably the NWS is pretty confident in dry air delaying precip and keeping totals in the low range. Hate hearing that for two reasons; we have snow starved members there, and I was forecasting higher. Memphis is on a sharp edge of snow but hopefully northern Mississippi will share. MD 96 valid for Mississippi this morning.. Birmingham to Atlanta is another zone of snow disappointment. 850 low is at/north of them and will cause more rain than snow. Even the north ATL 'burbs are looking kind of wet. That is not news, but I think we were all hoping for our friends down there. However it is a zero sum game. The shift north means party time from North Alabama to East Tennessee. Northwest Georgia and the Mountains were always in good shape. Despite trouble farther west I still believe in Plateau magic with this storm. The 850 low is set to track from central Alabama through northeastern Georgia. Inverted trough at 850 shows up over Tenn but the main 850 low is south. Temps at 700/500 are only a few degrees above perfect dendrite growth, forecast to drop close to or to that threshold. Cook's Method, an old school 200 mb WAA technique, yields up to 9 inches in the favored areas. I have no problem forecasting 4-7 inches from HSV through CHA and 3-6 inches from Knox through MRX. Tri Cities are tricky with terrain and these temps. JC may start out slow but don't give up. Other two look good for 3-6 inches too. Plateau is going to do better than 2 inches; I'm going 3-4 inches up there but 5 would not surprise me middle/lower Plateau. Hard to imagine Chatty but not Plateau. What could go wrong? If one is concerned about JC, you must be concerned about Chatty. Well I don't see JC going to rain, maybe just lighter snow up front. Chatty rain seems pretty hard to do with wetbulbs likely settling at/below freezing. Anything can happen in the South, but I can only see all snow scenarios for Tennessee. North Alabama's Cloudmont Ski Area on Lookout Mountain will have real snow. Ski Bama! Thanks again for taking the time to keep us updated. Your posts are always well placed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 How bout them 12z Euro apples: I think some of those totals could be slightly higher in east Tennessee given the propensity for upward trends right before the last 2 storms which had similar dynamics at play, or at least their's probably some wiggle room involved for higher numbers but perhaps it's capped this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I think some of those totals could be slightly higher in east Tennessee given the propensity for upward trends right before the last 2 storms which had similar dynamics at play, or at least their's probably some wiggle room involved for higher numbers but perhaps it's capped this time around. Yeah the globals aren't very useful now but I thought it was interesting to see the Euro move NW that much here close to go time. It's ensembles and control indicated it might. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Yeah the globals aren't very useful now but I thought it was interesting to see the Euro move NW that much here close to go time. It's ensembles and control indicated it might. The NW trend is amazing how often it occurs, since sunday this has shifted a couple hundred miles. Their must be a serious kink in the operating systems that just cannot rid itself of that trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The question I have...Have the models caught-up or is this a case where the precip is growing so quick on the western side that models don't catch real time. This trend has been the case all winter with precip not being robust enough. Approaching spring time helps. Makes them juicier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Euro will keep the Birmingham crowd happy. Can't say the same for the Southern Atlanta metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I've been just sitting back and reading for this one. There isn't much more I can add that y'all have went over and showed. I would go 4-6 for KTRI and KTYS. 6-8 for KCHA. I think the next few hours will be very telling on radar for how far northwest the band gets. HRRR and RAP have the northern shield not moving past the state line below Memphis/Nashville. It is knocking on the borders door right now. I wouldn't be concerned in Chatty. Dynamical cooling and wet bulbs should keep you mostly snow. Maybe some rain/sleet at the start of the event. Charlotte to RDU are going to get crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 17z RAP down a little: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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