ShawnEastTN Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 RAP also showing the last 5 hours of it range moderate to heavy snow Plateau East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 0z Ukie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 6z Hi-Res NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The RAP is looking pretty decent for the eastern half of TN and the event isn't done at the end of it's range. It's worth noting that with yesterday's storm radar over performed relative to RAP/HRRR even right up to the last minute. Those models even initialized with less on their sim radars than what the actual radar was showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I believe we are in for a good one this evening. I'd love to get under that deformation zone and outdo last Feb's system. KCHA had 7.2 from it, I had a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 3z SREF plumes: TRI: 4.1 TYS: 4.3 CHA: 6.7 BNA: 1.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I think the 0Z UKMET has it pretty close except I would extend the the amounts westward further. I think 3-4" will extend back as far west as the Eastern Highland Rim, or at the very least the Western escarpment of the Cumberland Plateau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 On the actual live radar, this storm is huge. Seems to have a favorable trajectory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 On the actual live radar, this storm is huge. Seems to have a favorable trajectory. I agree, already very large precip shield, looks like a comma already forming, and to me watching it live it appears to already have an ENE movement. It doesn't look like it moving due east, I wouldn't say its moving NE, but definitely ENE. ENE from TX would move heavier totals north for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The precip shield is currently larger than the GFS had it being at this time. Edit: Beat me to it Shawn. Yeah I like the looks of the radar this morning definitely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 MRX HWO from this morning: .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...PATCHY DENSE FREEZING FOG CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING. THEFOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO ONE-QUARTER MILE OR LESS. THEFREEZING FOG COMBINED WITH REFROZEN WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS WILLPRODUCE SOME BLACK ICE.A WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING THROUGHTHURSDAY MORNING PRODUCING HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER THE SOUTHERNTENNESSEE VALLEY...FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...AND THE HIGHERTERRAIN OF THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL WILLALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE REST OF EAST TENNESSEE INTO SOUTHWESTVIRGINIA.SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNINGAREA WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY. SNOW AND ICECOVERED ROADWAYS LATE TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL MAKETRAVEL DIFFICULT ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO...THE SNOW TEXTURE WILL BEFAIRLY WET ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. THE WET SNOW MAY DOWN SOMETREES AND POWER LINES WITH LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAYMORNING. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH ARE EXPECTEDACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH A DUSTING POSSIBLE ACROSS THENORTHERN AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Radar returns are already getting close to Memphis... I really think this afternoon MRX will upgrade the rest of the Valley counties eastward to warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 12z NAM is north at 15 with the precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The precip shield, though light in nature, is more northwest than the earlier run. Seems the model is catching onto the radar. Looks good for Chatt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Radar returns are already getting close to Memphis... I really think this afternoon MRX will upgrade the rest of the Valley counties eastward to warning. It doesn't really matter at this point, but I'd be stunned if they did. Campbell County got 8-10 inches last year under a WWA that never changed during the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 12z NAM is north at 15 with the precip shield. Yep, and on top of that its still under modeled based on current shield, that is definitely in our favor. It is showing a nice comma even for being under modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The precip shield, though light in nature, is more northwest than the earlier run. Seems the model is catching onto the radar. Looks good for Chatt. The precip shield is quite a bit larger than the sim radar from earlier NAM runs. Further north and much further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The precip shield is quite a bit larger than the sim radar from earlier NAM runs. Further north and much further east. East or west? What do you think happens with this, John? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The second piece of energy expected to drop in tomorrow and give us a dusting to an inch is giving 9-12 inches up in Iowa. I guess it's going to weaken quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The second piece of energy expected to drop in tomorrow and give us a dusting to an inch is giving 9-12 inches up in Iowa. I guess it's going to weaken quite a bit. Yeah... LOL I have a hard time with that also considering an exiting storm and lots of left over low level moisture left hanging around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 East or west? What do you think happens with this, John? East, the sim radar didn't have reflectivity in Alabama at all at 8 am but it was nearly to Georgia already. I think MRX has it handled pretty well, there will be areas in the advisory that probably meet warning criteria and some parts of the warning area will probably exceed 6 inches. But overall the graphic that says 2-5 in the WWA and 4-7 in the warned areas is probably pretty solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 12z NAM is north at 15 with the precip shield. Wow, significant shift: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The radar at 14z on top, what the radar is modeled to look like at 15z below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 East, the sim radar didn't have reflectivity in Alabama at all at 8 am but it was nearly to Georgia already. I think MRX has it handled pretty well, there will be areas in the advisory that probably meet warning criteria and some parts of the warning area will probably exceed 6 inches. But overall the graphic that says 2-5 in the WWA and 4-7 in the warned areas is probably pretty solid. I think it will depend on the comma head. If it is stout...we overperform. If not 1-3". The NAM moved a more solid precip shield into the Valley. Anyone have a clown map for the regular 12z NAM?Edit: Thanks, Stove! I told you all that it shifted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The precip shield on the NAM still looks way underdone for a 999mb LP running from Mobile to S Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 12Z Hi Res NAM out to 27 H. Solid 5-6" southern valley, and central valley northeastward up the valley 3-5". I still wonder with that precip shield if that is underdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I think this is a case of the models finally catching-on to how strong the storm is. I don't know that the storm is jogging north as much as the precip shield has been undermodeled. Good trend. Now let's see where it takes us. Hey, if someone wants to track the trends on the RAP(yes, I don't like it) and see if the precip is expanding west with each run. The NAM has been pretty good for the past few...so, I definitely give weight to its trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Look at the 12km NAM... Great Valley wide 4-6" or 5-7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 QPFS off the NAM bna...14 cha....76 tri......46 csv..36 mem..17 any one else want theirs post your station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChattChaser Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 What is everyone's opinion on these Rap/HRRR simulations that show us getting screwed down here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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