WinterWonderland Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Latest on FB from Robert: https://www.facebook.com/WxSouth/posts/1008248849205170:0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Latest on FB from Robert: https://www.facebook.com/WxSouth/posts/1008248849205170:0 Seems reasonable at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Latest SREF plumes: TRI: 4.7 TYS: 4.7 CHA: 5.3 BNA: 2.8 Better than I was bracing for after seeing those early maps! Edit: Wider spread though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Wouldn't take much of a nw jog to really dump on the eastern valley... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 SREF plumes are holding pretty close but down for the 21Z for TYS 4.7" down from 5.4". CHA is up from 4.47" to 5.37", TRI down from 5.85 to 4.78, BNA down from 4.80 to 2.87. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 0z NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Not sure which one to believe,the NAM or HRRR,Just comparing the maps to the HRRR above the NAM is way slower Edit:might not be much slower but sure is showing more juice the HRRR is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 0z NAM: Precip shield on the west side has grown after diminishing the previous run. Looks like it phased more. Good trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The Hi-Res NAM sim radar is kind of ugly, not sure how much faith to put in those p-types but here are a few shots of the weatherbell maps: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 And the Hi-Res clown: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Bet it is not defining the comma head enough. Still think it comes west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Carver, I think Robert's video last night talked about some comma head as the storm moved into NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 That 4 km NAM run is the definition of a heartbreaker. It has less than an inch at KCHA and 6+ at Dalton. Not gonna lie, I will have a childish meltdown if that verifies. I don't really buy that sharp cutoff though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Welp, I reckon it's pretty much RAP/HRRR time from here on out. Here's the RAP at hour 18: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 MRX just upgraded mountains to warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 MRX just upgraded mountains to warning. Likely means they will wait until after the 0Z runs to see if any upgrade is warranted in the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The slightest shift north of the SLP and the eastern Tennessee Ridge and Valley gets walloped, not just North Carolina. The upper-level energy just NW of the SLP would be our player in this occurring. If it does the dirty work, we may get high ratio totals. Southern and Southwest Virginia may also get walloped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 MRX wording: CONFIDENCE OF 4 INCHES OR MORE IN PARTS OF THE MOUNTAIN ZONES HAS RISEN GIVEN LATEST MODEL RUNS...SO WILL UPGRADE SW NC AND EAST TN MOUNTAINS TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. WILL LEAVE WATCH IN PLACE ELSEWHERE FOR NOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 GFS clowns look much better (and more believable) than the NAM. 2-3 over most of east TN, 3-5+ over the southern tier of counties and the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 GFS shot us the bird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Any other time of the winter you'd see everything getting shifted northward,another annoying winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Any other time of the winter you'd see everything getting shifted northward,another annoying winter This started as a gulf coast snowstorm several days ago, so in reality it has shifted north. GFS was totally dry for me as late as yesterday. Can't say I've been too impressed with the "new and improved" GFS in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 This started as a gulf coast snowstorm several days ago, so in reality it has shifted north. GFS was totally dry for me as late as yesterday. Can't say I've been too impressed with the "new and improved" GFS in this pattern. either way,maybe we'll get an inch out of this if we are lucky,gives give us 3 one inch events the last four year..yeehaw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 4z RAP at 18 looking a little better than NAM I think: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Here's the 0z Euro, not that globals matter too much at this point but still: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 From the SE sub-forum: The mean snowfall is a bit deceptive because they still seems to be a spread among the members. Almost all of the arw members show something like this: Granted, this is overdone, but it does realize the potential here. The NMM panels from the sref are total different with minimal snowfall for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Latest from WPC, while I would like to be in the red areas, Chatt, Knox and Tri aren't in bad positioning. All 3 fall in WPC moderate risk of 4" or more. I still think all 3 locations in East get to 4", Chatt may do better. I still think the precip shield is under modeled. Seems overnight MRX upgraded SE TN counties to Warning calling for 3-6" and WWA for the rest of east TN for 2-4". I suspect after the event begins to unfold the warnings will spread further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Latest from WPC, while I would like to be in the red areas, Chatt, Knox and Tri aren't in bad positioning. All 3 fall in WPC moderate risk of 4" or more. I still think all 3 locations in East get to 4", Chatt may do better. I still think the precip shield is under modeled. Seems overnight MRX upgraded SE TN counties to Warning calling for 3-6" and WWA for the rest of east TN for 2-4". I suspect after the event begins to unfold the warnings will spread further. Time and time again the northern shield of precip is underdone with these types of lows - and we just saw that happen yesterday with a similar low. We've had a lot of last minute surprises in the last 2 weeks from a snow storm that turned into an ice storm, a clipper that was originally a non-event that gave Knoxville 2" of snow, a 'front end only' storm that ended up barely even changing over to rain, talk of all the snow melting with the rain on saturday - when it really only partially melted by Monday, and Monday night's system which was 'only' forecast to have an inch or less and ended up in spots around Knoxville to 3" - including my house. I'm pretty sure we're going to be 'surprised' by this storm. I just hope it's surprised in a good way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 HRRR starting to show moderate to heavy snow southern tier TN counties, and Plateau East counties: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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