As noted before system is similar to the big one last year. First I will compare and contrast. Then I will share why I favor the north track. Frankly I'm no longer wishing north because too much can go wrong in Chatty.   Last year the sfc HP was stronger but this year the surface is colder. LY 850 low was a little father south but TY it is colder. LY 700/500 had more WAA but TY it is a little more of a slider; closing up more recent runs though. I'm afraid if it closes up any more the 850 low