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Winter Storm Feb 25 and 26


nrgjeff

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As noted before system is similar to the big one last year. First I will compare and contrast. Then I will share why I favor the north track. Frankly I'm no longer wishing north because too much can go wrong in Chatty.

 

Last year the sfc HP was stronger but this year the surface is colder. LY 850 low was a little father south but TY it is colder. LY 700/500 had more WAA but TY it is a little more of a slider; closing up more recent runs though. I'm afraid if it closes up any more the 850 low will be a little more north. That would be a problem for CHA and a snow killer for ATL.

 

I have to agree with the northern side of the snow shield over achieving in Tenn. That is some low hanging fruit for beating NWP! If the comma head from the NAM verifies, Memphis and Nashville even look good.

 

I'm concerned about boundary layer temps southern Tenn border south. Still heavy snow sticks above freezing. Track might depend on little sfc HP ridge Ohio Valley in wake of GL front overnight. GFS is stronger HP; hence more south on storm track. NAM is weaker HP; if it gets any weaker boundary layer could be a real problem for CHA. I'd rather be in TYS MRX or Kingsport models be damned. Don't know how terrain will work for JC but this could be another Kingsport goodie first half. JC should be fine for good snow back half. I'm down here worrying about Chatty and I will until 00Z runs keep CHA cold enough.

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Since no one else will do it....

 

The last time I think I started a thread was the week before the August heat wave of 2007 so you get what you deserve if this storm busts.... :snowing:

Glad the one that cancelled winter started this thread for us.  

 

We owe you a debt of gratitude for kickstarting winter for us.  Now with that said, after this (whatever that means), can you please get started on finding spring?

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I figured I'd bring a few of the recent posts here from the other thread, feel free to add more.

 

12z NAM 24 hour total after storm #2:

Z2f9MC2.gif

 

Robert:

post-1490-0-48154600-1424790432.jpg



Here's the discussion Robert has to go with his map that Stove posted.


269948_622587471104645_2091126056_n.jpg?

WxSouth



Georgia and parts of Alabama, Tennessee and Virginia. The core of the big snowstorm tomorrow night is this zone.
There will be a lot of problems on this event.
1) Its a WET Snow.
2) Its a FAST falling snow
3) There could be Thunder Snow some areas of Carolinas in particular...

Tree branches can take up to 6" of heavy wet snow, but its the RATE of fall that allows too much clumping that it can fall off in time, so the tree branches snap or trees topple . I found out in a similar upper low where 10" fell in 6 hours.
I'm not sure of exact snow amounts anywhere, but A general 3 to 6" and 4 - to 8" storm is likely this zone, with some localized FOOT amounts of snow in NC , SC or VA. And it all happens in a very fast time frame.
For specific cities, I'll have a breakdown of zones. But for Atlanta and Birmingham, it may start as rain or mix, then both should go to snow with heavy rates, but any further north movement will bisect these cities. The interior Carolinas are cold enough for mostly snow rain at coast, maybe ending as snow. Winds WONT be a problem with this storm, or ICE, but there could be sleet mixed in a narrow zone in middle Alabama to the Midlands SC .
Check WxSouth.com For a breakdown of more maps . Since this is a HIGH IMPACT event I'll try to keep all my weather Fans and Subscribers alerted on this potentially Serious Event.



9z SREF total snow (includes some for the current storm):

dz0Ci0V.gif

Amazing the trend on the SREF, plumes have consistently risen since early yesterday. TYS is up to a 5.5 mean for the Wednesday night storm!



12z Euro:

3vLbGU4.png


 

12z UKie, seems it's precip has ticked a tad north and west as well:

6cZN6Ar.png



Here are the latest SREF snowfall means:

TRI:5.85"
TYS:5.44"
CHA:4.52"
CSV: 5.83"
BNA:4.30"

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I noticed that the sref dumped the huge snow totals in east TN from 9z but inched back the three inch line a hair northwest.  This looks a LOT like other guidance at this point.  I guess the fly in the ointment will be if the low comes out a little "beefier" than modeling suggests and also any final 24 hour wiggles in the track.  Looks like a fun little system for a large part of the state (per the sref)

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Winter Storm Watch for East TN . . .

 

TNZ013>016-036>039-068>070-VAZ001-002-005-250345-
/O.CAN.KMRX.WW.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-150224T2100Z/
/O.EXB.KMRX.WS.A.0003.150225T2100Z-150226T1200Z/
CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-
HAMBLEN-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-LEE-WISE-SCOTT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LA FOLLETTE...TAZEWELL...SNEEDVILLE...
ROGERSVILLE...CLINTON...OAK RIDGE...MAYNARDVILLE...RUTLEDGE...
MORRISTOWN...LENOIR CITY...KNOXVILLE...DANDRIDGE...JONESVILLE...
WISE...NORTON...GATE CITY
231 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING
...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

* EVENT...A FEW FLURRIES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THROUGH
  THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
  EXPECTED. THEREFORE...THE SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

  SNOW...OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY...IS POSSIBLE LATE
  WEDNESDAY. ACCUMULATIONS SNOWFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE.


* TIMING...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN LATE WEDNESDAY AND
  CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WILL CONTINUE. WHEN TRAVELING...SLOW
  DOWN AND DRIVE WITH CAUTION. GIVE YOURSELF EXTRA ROOM BETWEEN YOU
  AND THE VEHICLE AHEAD OF YOU.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...AND/OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS. FUTURE DRIVING
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS...SO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS.
 

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Winter Weather Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
216 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

...ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MORE
SNOWFALL ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU, WHERE 2
TO 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. AREAS FARTHER NORTH,
INCLUDING THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA, MAY SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

TNZ008>011-027>034-056>066-075-077-078-080-250415-
/O.NEW.KOHX.WW.Y.0003.150225T1800Z-150226T1200Z/
SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-JACKSON-
PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-MAURY-
MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-
COFFEE-WARREN-VAN BUREN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GALLATIN...LAFAYETTE...CELINA...
BYRDSTOWN...NASHVILLE...LEBANON...MOUNT JULIET...HARTSVILLE...
CARTHAGE...GAINESBORO...COOKEVILLE...LIVINGSTON...JAMESTOWN...
LOBELVILLE...CENTERVILLE...HOHENWALD...FRANKLIN...BRENTWOOD...
COLUMBIA...LEWISBURG...MURFREESBORO...WOODBURY...SMITHVILLE...
SPARTA...CROSSVILLE...SHELBYVILLE...TULLAHOMA...MANCHESTER...
MCMINNVILLE...SPENCER
216 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM
CST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO
6 AM CST THURSDAY.

* TIMING...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

* MAIN IMPACT...1 TO 2 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION.

* OTHER IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
216 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

...ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MORE
SNOWFALL ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU, WHERE 2
TO 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. AREAS FARTHER NORTH,
INCLUDING THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA, MAY SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

TNZ079-093>095-250415-
/O.NEW.KOHX.WS.W.0003.150225T1800Z-150226T1200Z/
GRUNDY-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALTAMONT...WAYNESBORO...LAWRENCEBURG...
PULASKI
216 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST
THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6
AM CST THURSDAY.

* TIMING...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* MAIN IMPACT...2 TO 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1233 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY MORNING
UNTIL 3 AM THURSDAY MORNING FOR NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE...

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM CST
THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM
WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM CST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT.

* TIMING AND AREAS AFFECTED...FROM 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY THROUGH 3 AM
  CST THURSDAY...THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS FOR THE FOLLOWING
  COUNTIES IN ALABAMA: LAUDERDALE...COLBERT... FRANKLIN...
  LIMESTONE...LAWRENCE... MORGAN...CULLMAN... MADISON... MARSHALL...
  JACKSON...AND DEKALB COUNTIES.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ON WEDNESDAY...SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OF
  SNOW SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER...AND 3 TO 5 INCHES FOR NORTHERN
  ALABAMA COUNTIES NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER TO ALABAMA/TENNESSEE
  BORDER.

* IMPACTS...WIDESPREAD TRAVEL PROBLEMS WILL BE ANTICIPATED ON
  WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

----------------------------------

* TIMING AND AREAS AFFECTED...FROM 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY THROUGH 3 AM
  CST THURSDAY...THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS FOR THE FOLLOWING
  COUNTIES IN TENNESSEE: LINCOLN...FRANKLIN AND MOORE COUNTIES.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ON WEDNESDAY...SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN
  SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

----------------------------------

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND
WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

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MRX AFD:

 

 

 

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...ACCUMULATION SNOWFALL HAS
ENDED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION THOUGH A FEW POCKETS OF
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS INTO THE EVENING. WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN
THE SNOWFALL TONIGHT AND MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS A
LOW PRESSURE OVER TX THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GULF STATES AND
BEGIN TO EFFECT THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION LATE ON WEDNESDAY.
DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK...THE INCOMING SYSTEM IS
RATHER DIFFICULT. BY THE END OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY...THE LOW BEGINS
TO PULL IN SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT INTO FAR SOUTHERN
AREAS. DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE DAY...SNOWFALL WILL
SLOWLY SPREAD NORTH FROM THE TN/GA STATE LINE. AT THIS TIME OF DAY
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING AND WHILE EXPECT
PRECIP TO BE SNOW...THE AMOUNT OF SNOW ACCUMULATING LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON IS IN QUESTION. BY 6 PM WEDNESDAY...CURRENT TRENDS SHOULD
BRING UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW ALONG THE BORDER WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TOWARD I40.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING NORTH AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH DAMPENING UPPER LOW AS IT
MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE TN VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUNDING LAYER
PWAT VALUES VERY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR NEAR .75 IN. SURPRISED
TO SEE RELATIVELY LOW QPF ACROSS TN VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS IS
THE FLATTEST AND FASTEST WITH THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH RESULTS IN
LOWER SNOW TOTALS OVER A SHORTER PERIOD. INITIALIZED GRIDS WITH
HIGHER THAN MODEL DEPICTED QPF. LEANED TOWARD A MORE NORTHERLY AND
LONGER LASTING EVENT. REGARDLESS...SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD BE FAIRLY
HIGH. CURRENT SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE NEAR SREF MEANS. THESE VALUES MAY
BE STRETCHED UPWARD BY A FEW ROBUST OUTLAYERS BUT SEEM REASONABLE
FOR THIS EVENT. MOS TEMPERATURE FORECASTS APPEAR TOO HIGH THROUGH
THE MID TERM. UNDERCUT THESE NUMBERS BY 3 TO 4 DEGREES INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING
BUT SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES EAST THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. MILD WARM UP BEGINS ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION BY SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON
TIMING...LOOKS TO START AS LIGHT SNOW BUT SWITCH TO LIGHT RAIN. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE TN VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO WARM
TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH VERY GOOD CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.
 
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18z RGEM:

Really, really looks like the models want to add a northern component to this and turn the storm. You can see that bend as the precip runs off the coast. I think what is happening is that the models are struggling with how much to phase it. Probably had some data ingested that caused less of a phase. I still think that this has a bigger precip shield than shown. And it makes sense for a big storm to end this current cold stretch. Hopefully, we can get Chatt some snow!!!

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Really, really looks like the models want to add a northern component to this and turn the storm. You can see that bend as the precip runs off the coast. I think what is happening is that the models are struggling with how much to phase it. Probably had some data ingested that caused less of a phase. I still think that this has a bigger precip shield than shown. And it makes sense for a big storm to end this current cold stretch. Hopefully, we can get Chatt some snow!!!

 

I'd love 4 inches but would be content with a repeat of today lol.  Let's get Nashville a few inches and Chatt/south a good dumping and call it a winter!  My tomato seedlings are staring at me in the garage like "lolwut".

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Winter Storm Warnings stretching all the way from east Texas to Charlotte. . . . except of course for MRX's CWA, where we don't even have any graphics up for the event. MRX was quick with the warnings for last week's events, but this week they are back to their old ways. I guess we get upgraded when it starts snowing.

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I'd love 4 inches but would be content with a repeat of today lol.  Let's get Nashville a few inches and Chatt/south a good dumping and call it a winter!  My tomato seedlings are staring at me in the garage like "lolwut".

I agree, but I have a strong feeling (and its not just the burrito I had for lunch) that area wide Chatt to Tri we'll see around 4 or 5 inches.  Nash 2-3.  I think we will see models jump back up on QPF on tonight 0Z and tomorrows 6Z.  

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I'd love 4 inches but would be content with a repeat of today lol.  Let's get Nashville a few inches and Chatt/south a good dumping and call it a winter!  My tomato seedlings are staring at me in the garage like "lolwut".

Here! Here! Let's go out in style. Let's get a good snow for all and break for spring. Models are struggling with this one. 0z and even 12z will need to be watched.

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