aldie 22 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Freshen up the yellow snow it looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 It's a significant shift north with the precip shield...It is but even more importantly, low was a good bit stronger (sub 1k) and tucked closer than 0z. Similar to some of the ensemble solutions that brought 2"+ to dca a day or 2 ago. I'm really not sure what the upside is here. probably not much but seeing some accum snow would be nice even if light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 terrible. Pretty groovy in a 70s sort of way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 No they weren't. Richmond looked good. Not DC. By Friday morning, almost nobody in our area had hope. The models had looked good a couple days earlier, but had steadily trended to nearly nothing. There were no advisories anywhere near us Friday morning. By Friday afternoon, Frederick Co was the only county in Virginia not under an advisory of some kind. By 11 PM Friday night, Frederick County was the only county not under a Winter Storm Warning. By the next morning, we were under a Winter Storm Warning. I"m not going to waste any more time talking about it. When somebody can prove I'm wrong with archived data, then we'll talk. Until that time, no more. Found this on CWG, written 1130am on the 29th http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2010/01/update_slight_shift_north_with_snow_accumulations.html only advisories had been issued at this time for the southern areas. at the bottom of the article you can click "previous/next". that will give you a decent timeline of events. But youre def right... not much was expected even friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 That is absolutely not true. I do not know where a person could find archived NAM images from the 36 hours leading up to that storm, but my local forecast went from a 10% chance of snow on Friday morning at 7am to a 100% chance of snow on Sat at 7am. If you can find evidence that says I'm wrong, I'll be glad to look at it. We are talking about 2 different things, you are talking about what the model qpf showed and I am talking about the SLP and H5 track of the storm. I usually don't even look at the qpf until after I have seen the h5/slp. The models are awful at qpf sometimes so I would rather see what they are showing without the precip there to bias my interpretation of the run. The track of that storm did not shift a great deal the last 24 hours what shifted was the models precip associated with the low. From 48 hours out they were missing that band along the northwest edge of the storm. From a week out that storm was actually a big hit for our area then it shifted way south, then back close, after that it was only minor adjustments north in the actual slp track. The actual track shifted a little north the last 24 hours but mostly what shifted was a much more expansive precip shield then models had depicted. That's what got us into it. I am doubtful of such an expansive qpf this time with a positive NAO. On the other hand perhaps the actual slp can shift further north this time for the same reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Everything trending in a good way for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Let's see if the 15z SREFS hold on to their monsoon of qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 quick glance looks like 0.05" for DC and less north of there looks like the gfs mostly .. northern extend further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 No they weren't. Richmond looked good. Not DC. By Friday morning, almost nobody in our area had hope. The models had looked good a couple days earlier, but had steadily trended to nearly nothing. There were no advisories anywhere near us Friday morning. By Friday afternoon, Frederick Co was the only county in Virginia not under an advisory of some kind. By 11 PM Friday night, Frederick County was the only county not under a Winter Storm Warning. By the next morning, we were under a Winter Storm Warning. I"m not going to waste any more time talking about it. When somebody can prove I'm wrong with archived data, then we'll talk. Until that time, no more. This is a different argument... you are right if you are arguing that the forecasts changed and we were expecting the storm to miss to the south. That is true. What I am saying is the reason that was wrong was not that the storm shifted way north at the last minute, it is that the precip field turned out to be much more expansive then expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 looks like the gfs mostly .. northern extend further north We have some tight consensus with globals right now. Ukie is the wettest. Euro is driest. GFS-GGEM in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 This is a different argument... you are right if you are arguing that the forecasts changed and we were expecting the storm to miss to the south. That is true. What I am saying is the reason that was wrong was not that the storm shifted way north at the last minute, it is that the precip field turned out to be much more expansive then expected. what saved us in Jan, 2010 was the CRAS and it will save us this week too http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/index_pcp_m_loop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Let's see if the 15z SREFS hold on to their monsoon of qpf You seem to be giving a significant amount of weight to the SREFs. Can you explain why? Recent performance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Well, if mitch is posting the cras i may as well add the navgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Found this on CWG, written 1130am on the 29th http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2010/01/update_slight_shift_north_with_snow_accumulations.html only advisories had been issued at this time for the southern areas. at the bottom of the article you can click "previous/next". that will give you a decent timeline of events. But youre def right... not much was expected even friday night. Thank you. And, when I have time, I plan to visit the "links to past events" thread that MN posted here some time ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I think CRAS is programmed to always be north of everthing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 You seem to be giving a significant amount of weight to the SREFs. Can you explain why? Recent performance? I'm not giving significant weight per say but want to see if the wet trend persists because we will be getting into the range where these models tend to do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 I think CRAS is programmed to always be north of everthing else. uh-ohhhh....you just responded to a CRAS post I will forever bring it up when you pi$$ me off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Thank you. And, when I have time, I plan to visit the "links to past events" thread that MN posted here some time ago. it wont be here -- American didn't start until late 2010. You'd have to check Eastern http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/forum/15-weather-forecasting-and-discussion/page__prune_day__100__sort_by__Z-A__sort_key__last_post__topicfilter__all__st__1720 start there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 uh-ohhhh....you just responded to a CRAS post I will forever bring it up when you pi$$ me off Sounds like we'll be hearing a lot about the CRAS then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 it wont be here -- American didn't start until late 2010. You'd have to check Eastern http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/forum/15-weather-forecasting-and-discussion/page__prune_day__100__sort_by__Z-A__sort_key__last_post__topicfilter__all__st__1720 start there Good luck with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Good luck with that not sure what you mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 not sure what you mean. What's left of that board is riddled with SQL errors.. most of the content is unreachable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 not sure what you mean. OH. yeah, nevermind. i hadn't actually clicked on a thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Ok, anybody want to summarize the trend of the past 3 model cycles (3 for the 6 hour models, 2 for the 12's) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 We have some tight consensus with globals right now. Ukie is the wettest. Euro is driest. GFS-GGEM in between. Is it time to start talking about a Ukie wet bias (at least with these southern stream coastals)? Anecdotally (I know, I know), it feels like it's been super aggressive. Then again, it's hard to say. All of that metric system gibberish makes it tough to tell. If UKMET measured precip in a God-fearing English unit of measurement like inches, bags, firkins, ells, leagues, perches, ropes, or noggins, it might be more clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 Ok, anybody want to summarize the trend of the past 3 model cycles (3 for the 6 hour models, 2 for the 12's) north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 It's coming. That model has been awesome. Congrats and enjoy. Mahk Webstah - Congrats on one hell of a KICK ASS snow season for Boston and E MASS!!! I hope you guys continue to get even MORE snow! I think BOS needs a 200 inch season, THIS season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmcwahoo Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I know its not a lot, but over on the Southeastern board a comparison of the 0z and 12z Euro's show a doubling of QPF (.1 to .2) over much of Virginia. Hampton Roads doubled from roughly .2/.3 to .5/.6. Whole precip shield took a big move north and west. Again, not big amounts, but a positive trend at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Well, if mitch is posting the cras i may as well add the navgem gomidshipmen.JPG what will it take to get that low to track due north just like Jan 2000? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 High-res RGEM, not surprisingly, is wetter than the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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