ravensrule Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The latest thoughts from JB 1: He said remember the storm I got caught off guard on, before the blizzard? Came up the coast, and 4 days before I did not even think it had a chance ( that's right, I remember mistakes) Anyone seeing the same kind of thing going on here, but with a lot more cold air?In any case he sees this as not far away from turning into a real headache all the way up to New England. Slow the southern branch down a bit and since the big height fall center with the clipper is back in the midwest, it can get interesting. As it is, the western system should come in with snows, and at 30-1 it will be a good storm over the Miss valley into the midwest and that snow should hold together north of the areas that get the snow with the system from the south, which looks to be all the way to at least the Mason DIxon line. This time the snow in DC will fall with a wind that wont cause me to gawk.So here is what I think... Look for the southern storm to shift north a bit moreThe storm from the west to hold more with it north of its track.And the system early next week, another frontal snow, to have its snow swatch shift south more then currently modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The latest thoughts from JB 1: He said remember the storm I got caught off guard on, before the blizzard? Came up the coast, and 4 days before I did not even think it had a chance ( that's right, I remember mistakes) Anyone seeing the same kind of thing going on here, but with a lot more cold air? In any case he sees this as not far away from turning into a real headache all the way up to New England. Slow the southern branch down a bit and since the big height fall center with the clipper is back in the midwest, it can get interesting. As it is, the western system should come in with snows, and at 30-1 it will be a good storm over the Miss valley into the midwest and that snow should hold together north of the areas that get the snow with the system from the south, which looks to be all the way to at least the Mason DIxon line. This time the snow in DC will fall with a wind that wont cause me to gawk. So here is what I think... Look for the southern storm to shift north a bit more The storm from the west to hold more with it north of its track. And the system early next week, another frontal snow, to have its snow swatch shift south more then currently modeled Basically, weenie prediction 1, 2, and 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The latest thoughts from JB 1: He said remember the storm I got caught off guard on, before the blizzard? Came up the coast, and 4 days before I did not even think it had a chance ( that's right, I remember mistakes) Anyone seeing the same kind of thing going on here, but with a lot more cold air? In any case he sees this as not far away from turning into a real headache all the way up to New England. Slow the southern branch down a bit and since the big height fall center with the clipper is back in the midwest, it can get interesting. As it is, the western system should come in with snows, and at 30-1 it will be a good storm over the Miss valley into the midwest and that snow should hold together north of the areas that get the snow with the system from the south, which looks to be all the way to at least the Mason DIxon line. This time the snow in DC will fall with a wind that wont cause me to gawk. So here is what I think... Look for the southern storm to shift north a bit more The storm from the west to hold more with it north of its track. And the system early next week, another frontal snow, to have its snow swatch shift south more then currently modeled that guy would find a way to make it snow in a summer thunderstorm if he could! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Where do you get those that fast? On the model center here on the board. Give me a min and I will let you know the good ones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 At hr 48 for the GEFS members using the AmWx Model Center : 14 of the 20 members have DCA touching or inside the 0.10 QPF line 3 of the 20 members have DCA close by or inside the 0.25 QPF line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I can see several inches falling from this. Further south areas especially. I would play a general 10:1 ratio...we all got burned trying to forecast 15-20:1 ratios on the Feb 16 event. I don't think the surface low will drastically come further north but the vort max and trough will push precip north. I like the trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 At hr 48 for the GEFS members using the AmWx Model Center : 14 of the 20 members have DCA touching or inside the 0.10 QPF line 3 of the 20 members have DCA close by or inside the 0.25 QPF line The trend from 0z is impressive. If we get that same trend for the next 24 hours, we'd be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The trend from 0z is impressive. If we get that same trend for the next 24 hours, we'd be in business. The vort track is pretty good so there is hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I will guess the euro brings the precip north on this run...accumulating snow within the CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The vort track is pretty good so there is hope. I'm hoping you get 3-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I was forecast to get about 0.5" of precip in that one. I don't see any of the major models giving me that kind of precip...yet. The Jan 30, 2010 event has ruined me forever. It makes me think a massive shift within 24 hours is always possible. The 1/30/10 storm didn't really shift that much the last 24 hours, it had a slow north trend the last 48 hours true, but the bigger development that got our area into snowfall was the models missing the band of decent qpf along the nw fringe of the system due to convergence along the edge of the CCB and the high due to the major block in place. The low trended slightly north and that got us into it but it was a combo of that band of like .25 qpf and crazy high ratios that did it the most. I doubt we see such a band in this system without any blocking. That of course could also allow it to trend north more so its a double edged sword. What we need here, or at least those of us NW of DC, is something more like 2000 where this bombs and phases and comes north without models seeing it 48 hours out. DC south could do good without much change at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I will guess the euro brings the precip north on this run...accumulating snow within the CWA Gutsy call Hope it is right. Wes, I hope you get some snow out of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I'm hoping you get 3-4" I am only hoping he gets 3-4" if i get that . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 12z gfs good for close to an inch at jyo...only need 4-5" for back to back 30" seasons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The 1/30/10 storm didn't really shift that much the last 24 hours, it had a slow north trend the last 48 hours true, but the bigger development that got our area into snowfall was the models missing the band of decent qpf along the nw fringe of the system due to convergence along the edge of the CCB and the high due to the major block in place. The low trended slightly north and that got us into it but it was a combo of that band of like .25 qpf and crazy high ratios that did it the most. I doubt we see such a band in this system without any blocking. That of course could also allow it to trend north more so its a double edged sword. What we need here, or at least those of us NW of DC, is something more like 2000 where this bombs and phases and comes north without models seeing it 48 hours out. DC south could do good without much change at all. That is absolutely not true. I do not know where a person could find archived NAM images from the 36 hours leading up to that storm, but my local forecast went from a 10% chance of snow on Friday morning at 7am to a 100% chance of snow on Sat at 7am. If you can find evidence that says I'm wrong, I'll be glad to look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 12z gfs good for close to an inch at jyo...only need 4-5" for back to back 30" seasons http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_kjyo.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 12z gfs good for close to an inch at jyo...only need 4-5" for back to back 30" seasons Missing that clipper jackpot and the last storm sweet spot made a big difference between us! I am sitting at about ~18" for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 That is absolutely not true. I do not know where a person could find archived NAM images from the 36 hours leading up to that storm, but my local forecast went from a 10% chance of snow on Friday morning at 7am to a 100% chance of snow on Sat at 7am. If you can find evidence that says I'm wrong, I'll be glad to look at it. We're inside of 48 hours now. It's going to be hard to get huge model changes inside that, IMO. Never say never, but I think we needed to see some major movement with the 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 We're inside of 48 hours now. It's going to be hard to get huge model changes inside that, IMO. Never say never, but I think we needed to see some major movement with the 12z runs. Might be superstitious, but I don't think you can ever count on 18z for a big trender either. Seems like it always happens at 0z and 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 That is absolutely not true. I do not know where a person could find archived NAM images from the 36 hours leading up to that storm, but my local forecast went from a 10% chance of snow on Friday morning at 7am to a 100% chance of snow on Sat at 7am. If you can find evidence that says I'm wrong, I'll be glad to look at it. I remember the day before the storm, DC was looking good for 4-8", while Baltimore north were on the fringe. I'm not sure how it looked in Winchester, but I remember that band setting up north of Baltimore was a total surprise and made it a huge overperformer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I remember the day before the storm, DC was looking good for 4-8", while Baltimore north were on the fringe. I'm not sure how it looked in Winchester, but I remember that band setting up north of Baltimore was a total surprise and made it a huge overperformer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I remember the day before the storm, DC was looking good for 4-8", while Baltimore north were on the fringe. I'm not sure how it looked in Winchester, but I remember that band setting up north of Baltimore was a total surprise and made it a huge overperformer. a bit OT but as someone who does GIS, don't you think that's a really sloppy map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I remember the day before the storm, DC was looking good for 4-8", while Baltimore north were on the fringe. I'm not sure how it looked in Winchester, but I remember that band setting up north of Baltimore was a total surprise and made it a huge overperformer. No they weren't. Richmond looked good. Not DC. By Friday morning, almost nobody in our area had hope. The models had looked good a couple days earlier, but had steadily trended to nearly nothing. There were no advisories anywhere near us Friday morning. By Friday afternoon, Frederick Co was the only county in Virginia not under an advisory of some kind. By 11 PM Friday night, Frederick County was the only county not under a Winter Storm Warning. By the next morning, we were under a Winter Storm Warning. I"m not going to waste any more time talking about it. When somebody can prove I'm wrong with archived data, then we'll talk. Until that time, no more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 euro gets moisture up to Philly...just not a lot for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 quick glance looks like 0.05" for DC and less north of there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 a bit OT but as someone who does GIS, don't you think that's a really sloppy map? terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I'm hoping you get 3-4" I doubt that happens for many reasons. My goal for my hood is an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Time to see in about 45 mins if the past run of the SREFs was a fluke or if the SREFs double down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 0.10" contour looks like it runs through EZF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 It's a significant shift north with the precip shield... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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