Bob Chill Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Yeah.. we need more or this could just evaporate at game time. Still seems we're chasing a 1-3" or so anyway. Pretty much. I'm not sure how much more can change at this point. It would be a Jan 2000 type situation to get a decent hit at this point. I'm not sure that's ever going to happen again. Models are exponentially better at shorter ranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 Yeah.. we need more or this could just evaporate at game time. Still seems we're chasing a 1-3" or so anyway. yep, barring horrendous model errors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I'm with you on this. RGEM was actually pretty decent with the last few storms I believe, especially the last week storm where we tried to ignore it's sharp cutoff. It was way too dry/south on that storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Everyone was hating on yesterdays SREF mean, it actually looks very close to the current GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 Everyone was hating on yesterdays SREF mean, it actually looks very close to the current GFS run. we want this morning's sref mean! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Everyone was hating on yesterdays SREF mean, it actually looks very close to the current GFS run.If only tomorrows gfs would look like today's sref. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 you just received 8-9" of snow from the cr@p pattern you are again complaining about.....I don't get it Me either. The negative bent is not working right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 yep, barring horrendous model errors Yeah not much upside with this on the GFS, you have to go to NC to find the 0.25 qpf line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 so, i'm expecting clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Me either. The negative bent is not working right now. Your expectations of a colder/further south trend for next weekend are showing up on the gfs. Big shift from 6z through D5. There's a ton of spread on the ensembles by d7+ but it's notable inside of d5 on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 29.45 low right at coast is going to kick back more nw and big high out west not pushing in yet Thanks. Has not happened yet I know but I will key on this and not worry about quickers or kickers. In the contours of the coastal, they indicate a ene-ne move. That would be indicative of a weaker low. Anything 29.4/5 like will be taking a ne-nne move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I have to say I am really shocked at the huge difference between the SREF and global models. I mean, I know the SREF are too extreme in many of its members but it's been doing well this year down here. Hard to believe it is THAT wrong, but anything can happen these days. Also, I am not really excited that the GFS looks crappy because it's been performing better this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I have to say I am really shocked at the huge difference between the SREF and global models. I mean, I know the SREF are too extreme in many of its members but it's been doing well this year down here. Hard to believe it is THAT wrong, but anything can happen these days. Also, I am not really excited that the GFS looks crappy because it's been performing better this year. Something has to give sooner or later. Global cave toward the short range or vice versa or a middle of the road solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The SREFs can be a useful tool, if you understand their biases. In general, only the SREF NMM members are worth much. The ARW and NMB members have a pronounced NW/wet bias with coastal storms. Averaging the NMM members from the past 2 SREF runs gives a mean of about 0.05" QPF at LGA, 0.1" at ISP and 0.2" on the Twin Forks. Ratios should be around 20:1. This site has a good objective snow ratio forecast based on NAM and GFS: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=namm DCA SREFs ARW mean: 0.95" qpf NMM mean: 0.08" qpf NMB mean: 0.58" qpf Excellent consistency Above is probably your answer. He is a very good met who posts in the NY forum who now lives out of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I want the horrendous model error someone mention above. And I want it realized 12 hours before the event. I want it to be talked about for years to come. In other words I want ................... Yes, you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Everything in general seems to be ticking north. The SREFS are probably over amped but showing the right trend and the GFS/NAM/Euro operational runs too dry. While no two systems are alike, the pattern looks similar to the Feb 16 event. Question is do we get better lift in the snow growth zone or does it stay south again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Ggem looks like the same kind of scrape as the nam/rgem/gfs. Starting to converge a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Something has to give sooner or later. Global cave toward the short range or vice versa or a middle of the road solution. SREFs and Globals seem to start with a different premise about the conditions in the immediate term, so wouldn't this preclude a middle of the road solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Ggem looks like the same kind of scrape as the nam/rgem/gfs. Starting to converge a bit. Its a scrape... 0.1 line reaches just south of DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Everything in general seems to be ticking north. The SREFS are probably over amped but showing the right trend and the GFS/NAM/Euro operational runs too dry. While no two systems are alike, the pattern looks similar to the Feb 16 event. Question is do we get better lift in the snow growth zone or does it stay south again? So what is your gut feeling/forecast in this situation? If you had to make a call accumulation wise..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 12z UKIE 42 - 1002mb SLP right on the coast at the SC/GA border 48 - 998 off of OBX 60 - bye bye way out to sea Here is the 48hr QPF map -- http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=060&fixhh=1&stn2_type=anal&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=048 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Everything in general seems to be ticking north. The SREFS are probably over amped but showing the right trend and the GFS/NAM/Euro operational runs too dry. While no two systems are alike, the pattern looks similar to the Feb 16 event. Question is do we get better lift in the snow growth zone or does it stay south again? I was forecast to get about 0.5" of precip in that one. I don't see any of the major models giving me that kind of precip...yet. The Jan 30, 2010 event has ruined me forever. It makes me think a massive shift within 24 hours is always possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 UKIE is ~0.15 to 0.20 QPF for DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 UKIE is ~0.15 to 0.20 QPF for DCA 48 hr. Ukie map is not far from a 2-4" event at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 early march 1999 rings a bell here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I know its kinda past their range/inside 60 hrs, but there are some decent GEFS individual members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Tony Pann us on board w the north trend. I'll duck now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 I know its kinda past their range, but there are some decent GEFS individual members there are just enough "things" in the world of models that are keeping all of us weenies on the edge of our seats for a potential surprise mod event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Tony Pann us on board w the north trend. I'll duck now. He is usually the most bearish met i have ever seen. So that has to be some kind of good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I know its kinda past their range/inside 60 hrs, but there are some decent GEFS individual members Where do you get those that fast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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