CAPE Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Where is the Super Mega Block that the reliable ensembles predicted? I mean, the ensembles are where it's at for long range forecasting, right? We only get faux blocking now. Its the new -NAO. Probably has something to do with all the dirty glacier ice in Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Where is the Super Mega Block that the reliable ensembles predicted? I mean, the ensembles are where it's at for long range forecasting, right? ? That was a week ago and it was transient as expected Ensembles have been killing it with the -epo regime and general longwave pattern for the last month. Not sure what point you are trying to make. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 ? That was a week ago and it was transient as expected Ensembles have been killing it with the -epo regime and general longwave pattern for the last month. Not sure what point you are trying to make. Just a guess, but probably he is making the point that the long range models have advertised decent blocking quite often this (past)winter, and it never verified. Transient stuff....well, 36 hour blocks don't really have much impact, and in my book that doesn't count. Zero impact on sensible weather, so not really worth a mention. EPO is another matter entirely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Why is there a 40% chance for snow in my NWS forecast for both Saturday and Saturday night? Is there something I'm not aware of? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Why is there a 40% chance for snow in my NWS forecast for both Saturday and Saturday night? Is there something I'm not aware of? Guidance has been hinting at a weak trough(Norlun-ish?) to the west of a developing storm well off the coast. Could produce some rain or snow showers. Not a big deal. So no you do not need to be aware of, or on alert for, anything significant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 ? That was a week ago and it was transient as expected Ensembles have been killing it with the -epo regime and general longwave pattern for the last month. Not sure what point you are trying to make. About 2 weeks ago, or so, I remember talk of a massive blocking pattern. You are saying it happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Maybe Bob is right. We did have snow Friday. I certainly wasn't paying attention to the upper pattern. I was too busy griping about the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 About 2 weeks ago, or so, I remember talk of a massive blocking pattern. You are saying it happened? But none of us said it wasn't going to be transient or the start of a new regime. It happened but not as extreme as some of the runs 8 days out. Here's the GEFS run I posted saying it was an impressive upper air pattern: And here's the verification during the 17th-20th. Still had a -ao/nao and 50/50. Ensembles picked up on this period 10 days out. They did damn good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 Maybe Bob is right. We did have snow Friday. I certainly wasn't paying attention to the upper pattern. I was too busy griping about the snow. We had snow pretty often from early Feb forward, with a +AO/NAO. The cold and storminess was Pacific driven... EPO/PNA. Little if any help on the Atlantic side. I agree with you on the poor verification, wrt to advertised -NAO of any significance on long term guidance, if thats what you were getting at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 We had snow pretty often from early Feb forward, with a +AO/NAO. The cold and storminess was Pacific driven... EPO/PNA. Little if any help on the Atlantic side. I agree with you on the poor verification, wrt to advertised -NAO of any significance on long term guidance, if thats what you were getting at.To be fair, guidance advertised a raging +ao/nao the vast majority of the winter. The blocking looks were always d10+ and never impressive. I don't recall the numerical index d10+ ever being below -1sd and it was always fleeting when it showed up in lala land. In general, lr ens guidance did really well. Especially inside of d10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 To be fair, guidance advertised a raging +ao/nao the vast majority of the winter. The blocking looks were always d10+ and never impressive. I don't recall the numerical index d10+ ever being below -1sd and it was always fleeting when it showed up in lala land. In general, lr ens guidance did really well. Especially inside of d10. Yes, I generally agree. But there were several occasions where there were at least strong hints (at longer leads) of a developing neg NAO, which never came to fruition. The LR did very well wrt EPO and PNA pattern obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 SREF, GGEM, and to a lesser extent, NAM, all have snow showers this weekend. Actually, GGEM is pretty aggressive. No mention of this in the forecast discussion, which is probably prudent, since it won't happen. At any rate, sort of an interesting discussion here on the cold air: .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...STRONG COLD ADVECTION AT LOW LEVELS CONTINUES AS THE CORE OFUNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTOTHE NORTHEAST...BRUSHING THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. 850 HPA TEMPSPROGGED IN THE -9C TO -13C RANGE SATURDAY. EXAMINATION OF UPPER AIRRECORDS SHOWS ONLY ABOUT A DOZEN TIMES HAS 850 TEMPS FALLEN TO -10COR LOWER FROM MAR 27 INTO APRIL. WITH DECENT CAA ON SATURDAY...SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR STRATO-CU DECK. WHERE CLOUDS HOLD...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE 40S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ANDLOW/MID 40S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HOWEVER...IF THE DECK GETS WIPEDOUT DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE AND/OR DOWNSLOPING THEN THE RELATIVEWARMTH OF LATE MARCH SUN COULD CAUSE TEMPS TO OVERCOME CAA AND RISEA CAT OR TWO HIGHER THEN FORECAST. STILL...UNSEASONABLY COLD ANDBRISK ON SATURDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evaporativecooler Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 AO looks to go negative over the next week, associated with the seasonal breakdown of the PV. Can say with pretty high certainty that the period around the 4th is our last chance for flakes. The preceding air mass looks extremely marginal, though that's to be expected for April. Maybe, just maybe the western burbs can pull something off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 Storm around the 4th is trending colder on gfs... Don't look at 6z gfs if you want winter to be over haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 We may need to start a new thread for the 4/4 event. Maybe call it the "Final Four (as in inches) thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 Lol have fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 70 degrees in Charleston around 4/4. I hope you get whatever snow you can up here that day. Have at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 70 degrees in Charleston around 4/4. I hope you get whatever snow you can up here that day. Have at it. Dont worry you wont miss anything GFS is alone in its delusion. I will be in Charleston the week of 4/12. Hoping for 80 everyday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 O V E R Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 this Winter returning for the last 10 days of march was a complete bust. It was cold enough for a few snow events but very dissapointed that we couldnt even get a decent storm to develop. All the long range models that showed a stormy pattern were just wrong. What a sucky end to a mediocre winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 this Winter returning for the last 10 days of march was a complete bust. It was cold enough for a few snow events but very dissapointed that we couldnt even get a decent storm to develop. All the long range models that showed a stormy pattern were just wrong. What a sucky end to a mediocre winter Everything was too linear and progressive. It was obvious that nothing was going to happen, the trough axis wasn't digging far enough west. This was in part due to the west coast ridge, which was so insane that it crushed everything and caused nothing but cold and dry. I hope this 2013-2014 pattern is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 If you look at dca snow totals..it was a slightly above average winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 this Winter returning for the last 10 days of march was a complete bust. It was cold enough for a few snow events but very dissapointed that we couldnt even get a decent storm to develop. All the long range models that showed a stormy pattern were just wrong. What a sucky end to a mediocre winter Never change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 this Winter returning for the last 10 days of march was a complete bust. It was cold enough for a few snow events but very dissapointed that we couldnt even get a decent storm to develop. All the long range models that showed a stormy pattern were just wrong. What a sucky end to a mediocre winter We should all be worried about next winter. Very worried. I may cancel it by August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 We should all be worried about next winter. Very worried. I may cancel it by August. Canceling before the end of October would be foolish. SAI. Cohen is a genius. He apparently has invented, on the fly, a new connection between Eurasian snow-cover and the EPO...or the PNA, or both. Cold is cold, regardless of the delivery mechanism. He predicted cold. Cold came. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Euro! :o :o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Euro! :o :o Does it show a lot of rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Canceling before the end of October would be foolish. SAI. Cohen is a genius. He apparently has invented, on the fly, a new connection between Eurasian snow-cover and the EPO...or the PNA, or both. Cold is cold, regardless of the delivery mechanism. He predicted cold. Cold came. That connection has been long established. A simple search in Google Scholar will show plenty of research, before Cohen, with that connection. But keep buying into the hype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Euro! :o :o Is it showing snow for Alaska? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Euro! :o :o Probably the worst AF joke ever. I don't even have to check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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