Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,587
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

March Threats/Snow Storms Pt. II


mitchnick

Recommended Posts

It's good to be on the inside looking out.

Probably not wise to say things like "physically impossible" or "Meteorological impossibility". Yeah the projection is for the AO and NAO to be pretty strongly positive as we close the month, and it is getting pretty late in the game.  But if I recall correctly the AO was very positive and the NAO was solidly positive on March 5th when 7 inches of snow fell imby. It was real cold too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Probably not wise to say things like "physically impossible" or "Meteorological impossibility". Yeah the projection is for the AO and NAO to be pretty strongly positive as we close the month, and it is getting pretty late in the game.  But if I recall correctly the AO was very positive and the NAO was solidly positive on March 5th when 7 inches of snow fell imby. It was real cold too.

thought nao supposed to change to - state around this time, guess not!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GEFS all over the place for late this week/weekend... a couple of large storms, a few grazes... a few misses... and even a few rainers :lol:

Wow rainers in late March. Say it ain't so!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

For the die-hards --

 

 

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
1154 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015  
 
VALID 12Z THU MAR 26 2015 - 12Z MON MAR 30 2015  

 
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST SEEMED TO BE ON-TRACK---WITH SYSTEM  
MIGRATING FROM SOUTHERN ROCKIES DAY 1 TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY  
DAY 4---USHERING IN A COLDER BUT DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS EAST OF  
THE DIVIDE. UPSTREAM RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL LIKELY  
CONTAIN A CUTOFF SYSTEM---APPROACHING 130W AROUND DAY 5. BY DAY  
7---ADDITIONAL PACIFIC ENERGY SWEEPS THE REMNANT CUTOFF INLAND.  
 
THOUGHT A BLEND OF THE 23/00Z ECENS-DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND THE  
NAEFS WORKS THROUGH DAY 5---WITH LESS DETERMINISTIC INPUT AFTER  
29/00Z TO COVER THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND THE  
EQUATOR-WARD SPREAD OF CANADIAN AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.  
 
VOJTESAK  
   
..SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
 
 
WAVY COLD FRONT CROSSING THE EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD SHOULD  
INITIALLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME BANDS OF ENHANCED RNFL... MOST  
LIKELY FROM THE OH VLY NEWD AND A LITTLE LATER OVER THE FL  
PENINSULA. SNOW ON THU SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE UPR MS VLY/UPR  
GRTLKS BUT EXPECT WINTRY PCPN POTENTIAL TO SHIFT SEWD WITH TIME AS  
COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE EAST. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE  
COULD BE A LITTLE ADDED FOCUS FRI-SAT FROM OH VLY INTO THE SRN  
HALF OF THE APLCHNS/SRN MID ATLC
.
UPSTREAM SYSTEM DROPPING SEWD  
FROM CANADA SHOULD SPREAD AN AREA OF SNOW N/RAIN S FROM THE NERN  
TIER ACROSS THE NERN QUADRANT OF THE LOWER 48. ANY WRN CONUS PCPN  
SHOULD BE MOSTLY ON THE LGT SIDE... INCLUDING ACTIVITY OVER/NEAR  
THE NRN-CNTRL ROCKIES THU-FRI AND WITH ANY MSTR THAT COULD REACH  
THE WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER IS MODERATE  
AT BEST GIVEN DEPENDENCE ON A COMPACT UPR LOW THAT IS TYPICALLY  
CHALLENGING TO FCST.  
 
THE AMPLIFIED MEAN PATTERN ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A CONTRAST IN TEMPS.  
EAST COAST WARMTH ON THU WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BROAD AREA OF  
HIGHS 10-20F BELOW NORMAL OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS FRI-SAT  

WITH SOME MODERATION THEREAFTER. ON THE OTHER HAND A MAJORITY OF  
THE WRN CONUS SHOULD SEE MULTIPLE DAYS WITH HIGHS 10-25F ABOVE  
NORMAL WITH SOME LOCATIONS PSBLY REACHING DAILY RECORD VALUES.  
SOME OF THE WARM AIR OVER THE WEST SHOULD EXTEND INTO PARTS OF THE  
NRN-CNTRL PLAINS BY SAT.  
 
RAUSCH  
 
 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...