mattie g Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 I'll take the under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 I'll take the under. i would to mattie!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 It will be an interesting period to watch. GGEM had us getting snow on Tuesday, but eventually agreed with the GFS that the storm would stay well to our south. On the other hand the GGEM was the first model to show yesterday's storm, back when the GFS thought that one would pass well to our south. Six days out, it's hard to know which model will be most accurate. It's like looking at different members of an ensemble. There's potential in the pattern though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 Canadian ensembles have a cold front swinging through as a gigantic low tracks along the Canadian border, which is what the rest of the operational models have. I'd say there is a 0% chance this happens next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 Canadian ensembles have a cold front swinging through as a gigantic low tracks along the Canadian border, which is what the rest of the operational models have. I'd say there is a 0% chance this happens next weekend. Good. Any chance we can eliminate the cold front, too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 Good. Any chance we can eliminate the cold front, too? It wont be very cold, especially if its sunny. upper 40s- low 50s next weekend and breezy is my guess. Cold has no bite late March/early April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 I wouldn't necessarily count out late next week yet IMO... individ EPS ensembles are all over the place -- some show pretty decent coastal storms and others show nada e23 to go please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 I wouldn't necessarily count out late next week yet IMO... individ EPS ensembles are all over the place -- some show pretty decent coastal storms and others show nada e23 to go please Still has a chance that is above 0% and well below 50%. It's still a thread-able needle until models trend way more progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 Guessing is nice, and maybe that will be how it plays out, but the modeling right now has 850 temps in the -12C range and a closed upper low nearby. If that is correct, it would be a breezy day with a stratocumulus field filling in quickly and highs in the low 40s. It wont be very cold, especially if its sunny. upper 40s- low 50s next weekend and breezy is my guess. Cold has no bite late March/early April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 Ukmet looks close to something big...scraper for now Will know in a few hours where that SLP goes on Weatherbell... looks intriguing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 It wont be very cold, especially if its sunny. upper 40s- low 50s next weekend and breezy is my guess. Cold has no bite late March/early April. Scratching head looking at my records back to 1980.... Date RLH RL biggest snowfall 3/29 37 17 1.5/84 3/30 39 20 3.2/03 3/31 34 18 1.0/03 4/01 37 20 2.0/03 4/02 43 22 0.2/11 4/03 37 23 2.0/87 4/04 37 18 3.2/87 4/05 33 24 2.5/87 Not earth shattering, but it does get chilly and white. I'll take a 2003 or 1987 repeat myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 Ukmet looks close to something big...scraper for now Well, looks like I'm taking a 4wd vehicle to gatlinburg on the 28th to my sisters wedding..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 This winter just does not seem to know how to say goodbye. I think we have one final snowstorm. We are a snowtown. It loves to snow this winter. Let's bring this one home. Maryland is going to get absolutely shellacked. It will, because I said so. I dont think psuhoffman and Fozz have had enough snow yet. Ready that shovel Bob Chill, because you are gonna be diggin MORE snow! Casa de Das is gonna get shut down by a SICK, OBSCENE monster snow deathband! I dont care if that calendar says spring. I say its still winter and its gon' snow! It does not need to snow in my back yard for me to root for snow! I want Maryland to get shut down by severe torrential snow! We've got this one, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 A ton of uncertainty on the 00z GEFS individ members at around the Day 6 to 7 time period... some show nada, some show a storm with rain (because the SLP is west of us), and a few show a developing storm that could potentially produce some snow for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 Looks like 00z EURO has the same idea at 144... but out to sea it goes as it deepens... Def is a signal during this time period for something -- be it nothing or a major storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 00z GFS was closer. Needs to be more amped up with a slower kicker. New England will have a much easier time getting snow out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 EPS members def picking up the threat for next weekend... some of the SLP positions and strengths are nuts, along with the snow accums. 15%-20% of the EPS members are throwing out 6"+ or very close to it for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 Scratching head looking at my records back to 1980.... Date RLH RL biggest snowfall 3/29 37 17 1.5/84 3/30 39 20 3.2/03 3/31 34 18 1.0/03 4/01 37 20 2.0/03 4/02 43 22 0.2/11 4/03 37 23 2.0/87 4/04 37 18 3.2/87 4/05 33 24 2.5/87 Not earth shattering, but it does get chilly and white. I'll take a 2003 or 1987 repeat myself. Oh it can happen, it just usually doesn't. My reply was more of a tongue in cheek "reassurance" to WintrWXLuvr not to be concerned about a late season(early Spring) cold front. Hardly the type of cold thats going to keep everyone inside by the fire lol. Unless there is a storm, I still doubt we see worse than a couple days with highs in the 40s in the metros. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 12z GFS is actually similar to yesterdays ggem at 500mb, however the surface front is way east so the low doesn't get cranking until it's offshore. The GGEM was wrong, just not in the way I expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 GGEM is somewhat close, but that 1045 H needs to get here quicker... and to shift the SLP east a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 Isnt the GFS "right where we want it" at this range. I will say this, it has been signaling something for the 28-30th period for quite a while now. 12z run gives a couple inches of slop to eastern NC verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 Isnt the GFS "right where we want it" at this range. I will say this, it has been signaling something for the 28-30th period for quite a while now. 12z run gives a couple inches of slop to eastern NC verbatim. how are you going to get a snowstorm with raging +nao?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 how are you going to get a snowstorm with raging +nao?? The Atlantic has sucked all winter. And last winter. Yet we have managed to get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 The Atlantic has sucked all winter. And last winter. Yet we have managed to get snow. It's bound to go wrong eventually, tho I like being east for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 It's bound to go wrong eventually, tho I like being east for this one. I am in full tilt Spring mode now. Just casually "tracking" this. I really think this is a low probability but its been on the radar for a while, and if it happens, it would be interesting. I like weather that's interesting. And being east is not typically where you want to be the very end of March if you want snow. Does happen though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 how are you going to get a snowstorm with raging +nao?? You should ask DT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 GEFS all over the place for late this week/weekend... a couple of large storms, a few grazes... a few misses... and even a few rainers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 You should ask DT It's good to be on the inside looking out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 Looks like a weak area of precip develops at 144 near us and to the SW ETA: 2-4" in C/S VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 GEFS all over the place for late this week/weekend... a couple of large storms, a few grazes... a few misses... and even a few rainers None of them show significant snow. Most bullish member is 2-4", and that's from the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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