midatlanticweather Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I'm hugging the RGEM And SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 There is time for this to come north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 I'm hugging the RGEM move over big fella' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Um...big shift north with a Canadian model. HR 45 Did the low shift north or just the extent of the precip? It seems like the low is sliding ENE from there which wouldn't do much for us. We need the low to come north of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 There is time for this to come north. plenty of time if things follow the script, the models will continue, generally speaking, to bring it north until 12Z tomorrow, then they'll waffle a little and push it back south some but not so far south we're out of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 move over big fella' What did i tell you on Sunday. I am like RG3, never doubt my calls . It is really good to see the RGEM on our side. It has been money this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Now that the rgem is showing something decent I feel a little better. I'm too lazy with the foreign maps to calc qpf. Anybody grab those #s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 What did i tell you on Sunday. I am like RG3, never doubt my calls . It is really good to see the RGEM on our side. It has been money this winter. it has, I agree here's the 48 hr. B&W map....not a ton of qpf, but we've got some time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I am not sold. Mood flakes maybe north of EZF but never a fan of lows sliding ENE near OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Precip looks pretty light on the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Did the low shift north or just the extent of the precip? It seems like the low is sliding ENE from there which wouldn't do much for us. We need the low to come north of there. If ers-wx says it can come north then I listen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Now that the rgem is showing something decent I feel a little better. I'm too lazy with the foreign maps to calc qpf. Anybody grab those #s? ~0.1" for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 ~0.1" for DC Eh, so in line with the high res nam and a bit juicier than the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 ~0.1" for DC Lol, if you listened to the weenie commentary you would have thought it was 1" QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 Precip looks pretty light on the RGEM I mean it's not like we haven't done this dance in the past 2 weeks everybody knows we'll make it up on ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 If ers-wx says it can come north then I listen. I agree it can come north but I'm just pointing out whether the low came north or if the precip shield came north; to me, that low position and where it's going after that frame doesn't do much for us up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 ~0.1" for DC edit: nevermind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 GFS is coming in more amped up with the vort. Could see it early too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 My main issue with this one is the vort game says it should be better than it looks up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 I agree it can come north but I'm just pointing out whether the low came north or if the precip shield came north; to me, that low position and where it's going after that frame doesn't do much for us up here. when trying to figure out whether I'll see decent precip imby, I generally look to see if decent radar returns are into WVA, west of ROA at 42 hrs they are, in fact well into WVA, but then weaken my suspicion is that the model it putting too much confluence to our NE from the SE Canada storm like all the models seem to like to do so if it's wrong, all other things being relatively equal, we should see better precip in future runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 39 h on the GFS has the northwestern extent of the precip looking better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Sorry, Ji, looks like the JMA keeps it south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 GFS is coming in more amped up with the vort. Could see it early too. yeah it's better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Now that the rgem is showing something decent I feel a little better. I'm too lazy with the foreign maps to calc qpf. Anybody grab those #s? I'm with you on this. RGEM was actually pretty decent with the last few storms I believe, especially the last week storm where we tried to ignore it's sharp cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Not a ton better with sfc track but a bit west maybe.. .1" to about Fredericksburg. .05" north of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 It gives us pixie dust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Not a ton better with sfc track but a bit west maybe.. .1" to about Fredericksburg. .05" north of DC. It's a big fat tease storm. I'm disliking it more every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 It's a big fat tease storm. I'm disliking it more every day. patience tester... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 It's a big fat tease storm. I'm disliking it more every day. Yeah.. we need more or this could just evaporate at game time. Still seems we're chasing a 1-3" or so anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Yeah.. we need more or this could just evaporate at game time. Still seems we're chasing a 1-3" or so anyway. I'm not sure I'd even stay up to watch an inch fall anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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