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March Threats/Snow Storms Pt. II


mitchnick

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1-2" doesn't seem all that crazy or loltastic to me if this works out.

ETA: tropical tidbits shows 1-2, while instantwx shows 3-5.

I think it's obvious which one is more trustworthy, but any fault in the clown map is on the algorithm, not the model itself.

I'm not saying I buy the higher totals but tropical tidbits nam snow maps have had an issue for a while. They have looked low compared to other nam output and sometimes were obviously off.
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Sun angle?

 

Maybe once the temps crater tonight people will think about snow.  Right now, people are thinking about outdoor activities.  

It didnt seem like it would drop so damn fast tonight. It was 73 here and I had on full summer clothes. It got cold really fast and there I was, faced with a 5 mile jebwalk in my July tshirt and board shorts. I can hardly believe this: It's already down to 45/19 with a north wind at 11 with gusts to 24 mph. This chilly air mass took me completely by surprise. If you cant trust a SE Ridge what can you trust lol

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UKIE update? This event still intrigues me, typical for GFS to show something, then lose it, only to bring it back. Just need the EURO on board. 

 

Only goes out to 144 on meteocentre... we will see what Weatherbell shows in a little bit (as in 144+)

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&stn2=PNM&hh2=000&fixhh=1&stn2_type=anal&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=144

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Yea, the model runs that showed the huge snow bomb (12z GFS the other day, 12z GGEM today) phased the energy down south. 12z EURO ain't gonna cut it either. 

Euro has some flurries over SW VA Tuesday morning. Close. 

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GGEM has done this several times in the medium range, I doubt the 500mb pattern amplifies as much or as quick as it is showing, it looks like it has a  misplaced jet streak that helps pop a ridge over the Pacnw and leads to the imaginary HECS.

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It's a period you'd expect the risk of a big storm which is why even an absurd solution gives you some pause. The GGEM does seem to be mishandling the western ridging in that period compared to the other models. For us at least there's always been something off when it comes to a big one lately.. though it hasn't hurt with the small to mod ones so much.

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