Ian Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 99.9%It's almost feeling like late winter again out there. Baro approaching 30.0... Bears watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 p003 is in for the late march hecs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 1-2" doesn't seem all that crazy or loltastic to me if this works out. ETA: tropical tidbits shows 1-2, while instantwx shows 3-5. I think it's obvious which one is more trustworthy, but any fault in the clown map is on the algorithm, not the model itself. I'm not saying I buy the higher totals but tropical tidbits nam snow maps have had an issue for a while. They have looked low compared to other nam output and sometimes were obviously off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Sun angle? Maybe once the temps crater tonight people will think about snow. Right now, people are thinking about outdoor activities. It didnt seem like it would drop so damn fast tonight. It was 73 here and I had on full summer clothes. It got cold really fast and there I was, faced with a 5 mile jebwalk in my July tshirt and board shorts. I can hardly believe this: It's already down to 45/19 with a north wind at 11 with gusts to 24 mph. This chilly air mass took me completely by surprise. If you cant trust a SE Ridge what can you trust lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 NAM still likes Friday morning a lot... decent snow sounding at DCA at 63 with all levels below 0C Sim radar shows rakage at 63 as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Silly NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 4km NAM has us snowing by 6am or so and decent snow at 8am as teh run ends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 If it comes in early and heavy enough... NAM could be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 WPC 90 percentiles came in close to 4.5" north of I-70 and 2-3 south including the metro areas. That is a reasonable max scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Holy canadian! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Holly canadian! 10:1:10 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Canadian is lulz Although 12z UKIE at 144 seems intriguing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Canadian is lulz Although 12z UKIE at 144 seems intriguing UKIE update? This event still intrigues me, typical for GFS to show something, then lose it, only to bring it back. Just need the EURO on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 UKIE update? This event still intrigues me, typical for GFS to show something, then lose it, only to bring it back. Just need the EURO on board. Only goes out to 144 on meteocentre... we will see what Weatherbell shows in a little bit (as in 144+) http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&stn2=PNM&hh2=000&fixhh=1&stn2_type=anal&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 That does look good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Safe to say it's not a GGEM solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Yea, the model runs that showed the huge snow bomb (12z GFS the other day, 12z GGEM today) phased the energy down south. 12z EURO ain't gonna cut it either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Yea, the model runs that showed the huge snow bomb (12z GFS the other day, 12z GGEM today) phased the energy down south. 12z EURO ain't gonna cut it either. Euro has some flurries over SW VA Tuesday morning. Close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Safe to say it's not a GGEM solutionim worried the ggem fringes me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 im worried the ggem fringes me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Crushed by the bell on the 18z GFS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Crushed by the bell on the 18z GFS....huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 huh? and a cutter from hell behind it, gg for winter. Is the GGEM storm the one behind the GFS coastal tho? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 GGEM has done this several times in the medium range, I doubt the 500mb pattern amplifies as much or as quick as it is showing, it looks like it has a misplaced jet streak that helps pop a ridge over the Pacnw and leads to the imaginary HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Crushed by the bell on the 18z GFS....what? We don't speak NJ here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 It's a period you'd expect the risk of a big storm which is why even an absurd solution gives you some pause. The GGEM does seem to be mishandling the western ridging in that period compared to the other models. For us at least there's always been something off when it comes to a big one lately.. though it hasn't hurt with the small to mod ones so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 what? We don't speak NJ here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Parallel Euro also says no dice. Dual Dr Nos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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