Wonderdog Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Thursday looks very interesting. A little jog to the north and will be measuring again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 6z GFS is very interesting for early Friday. Low-level temps are still marginal as one would expect in late March, but at least the precip arrives during the overnight hours. It's at least something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 6Z GFS has some snow for us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Euro not too far off but has high further east. Still drops some snow.. Sfc is mehish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 16, 2015 Author Share Posted March 16, 2015 this Thurs. night/Fri. morning "thing" is what the Canadian has been insisting on for days would bring us accumulating snow, 1"-4" depending on exact location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 16, 2015 Author Share Posted March 16, 2015 I just looked at Euro text output and it gives mby 2-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 16, 2015 Author Share Posted March 16, 2015 fyi, Euro snow map has DCA and BWI all in the 3" snow area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Euro has perfect timing and heaviest rates after midnight. Not sure all snow is accumulating 10:1 snow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 fyi, Euro snow map has DCA and BWI all in the 3" snow area Kids are asking me for one more snow day on Friday. Maybe...just maybe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 16, 2015 Author Share Posted March 16, 2015 Kids are asking me for one more snow day on Friday. Maybe...just maybe... if it happens, it's a coup by the Canadian since it's been showing it for days now I think it was cae that posted the Canadian was doing best of all the models, so that would make sense but, lots can go wrong between then and now any time of year but even more so the end of March, so we'll see how the models trend today I would note that the Euro has the heaviest precip falling in SW VA while the Canadian has it going to our north, but on both models have DCA/BWI wityh similar totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Kids are asking me for one more snow day on Friday. Maybe...just maybe...Need more precip to start. Looks look a low to no road impact type thing for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Need more precip to start. Looks look a low to no road impact type thing for now. I honestly would be fine with grass only (as long as I can call it measurable). Kids will hate that, but too bad. They already used 8 snow days (+3 for HoCo). Will keep an eye on today's runs for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Before we give the GGEM too much props the good run was focused on a weekend storm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 I honestly would be fine with grass only (as long as I can call it measurable). Kids will hate that, but too bad. They already used 8 snow days (+3 for HoCo). Will keep an eye on today's runs for sure. Euro/GFS 'agreement' (for something) is good enough for me at this range.. though it's a bit sketch still. Hopefully just grass accum. If you all want a bigger storm I'd be happy missing it on the weekend/early week. -12 850s at 384. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 That's why late winter is so much better than early winter with a marginal surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 I think it was cae that posted the Canadian was doing best of all the models, so that would make sense The Canadian ensemble has been doing very well recently, especially with long-term H500 maps. There are no verification scores available for the EPS, but I would guess that the EPS is better. The Canadian op has not been the best of all models -- that's still the Euro by a good margin. Based on verification scores, UKMET is still #2. Recently the GGEM has passed the GFS, but it still trails the UKMET and Euro. For anyone who is interested, here's how the models have done for sea-level pressure anomalies in the northern hemisphere over the last month. The northern hemisphere scores don't necessarily reflect what's going on locally, but I've found there's a pretty good correlation. Earlier this winter, when the GGEM was struggling, it was also posting the lowest verification scores of the top 4 global models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Somebody please tell me that the Euro leaves my area high and dry. Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Somebody please tell me that the Euro leaves my area high and dry. Thanks in advance. I can't lie to you by western buddy. You're sorta near the fringe at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 I can't lie to you by western buddy. You're sorta near the fringe at least. Plenty of time to trend away from me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 16, 2015 Author Share Posted March 16, 2015 Before we give the GGEM too much props the good run was focused on a weekend storm: yeah, and then it switched its tune to a system to our west on its 12Z Saturday run with a coastal redevelopement, and has held with that scenario for the most part, though with a change to rain (more rain last night, but still 2-3" before a change) the 0Z Euro and 6Z GFS were better (to these weenie eyes) because they had little, if any, change to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 GFS looks decent.. sfc is iffy but some accum NW at least. Focus of precip after sunrise. High is running out ahead a bit more than 6z though plus a low NW... perilous maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Damn, damn, damn, the GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Also clobbers the PHL to BOS zone after. Well, more like Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Euro will save me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 haha.png Heh, not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Also clobbers the PHL to BOS zone after. Well, more like Cape Cod. our best sounding is again at 2pm....lol...would be cool if we are getting raked in the afternoon...though probably like 3/25 last year....which kind of sucked down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 our best sounding is again at 2pm....lol...would be cool if we are getting raked in the afternoon...though probably like 3/25 last year....which kind of sucked down here Yeah problem is it's basically done by then. I'd hope the Euro is right with timing I think. High shifted east a decent bit too out ahead.. can't have too many things off this time of year and still score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Damn, damn, damn, the GFS! Come on. Come onnnn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Shining example of snowmaps gone wrong on wxbell for 12z GFS heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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