nj2va Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 Euro showing cold air around the 21st/22nd - my money is on the cold moderating and we wind up near 50/low 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 Well since it's so quiet I guess I'll just drop this here, from the LC model: Classic equatorial breach enhanced low track from Port Hueneme, CA to Shamrock, TX to Travelers Rest, SC. The swing toward Big Tusket Island after passing the Boston smasher sweetspot is something else. TROPICAL + ARCTIC man. Also, that could be severe for me in New Orleans so let's do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 The Bay of Campeche ridge is preventing any storm from taking a track we like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 When do we call it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 When do we call it? Now for DC. Wait a couple weeks for Westminster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 When do we call it? It's ovah! Some of the early tree bloomers look like they're ready to pop soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 When do we call it? 0Z run tonight will be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 Now for DC. Wait a couple weeks for Westminster. 6z GFS @240 has an inch or 2 of snow for DC; not much of anything for Westminster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 13, 2015 Author Share Posted March 13, 2015 Day 10 on last night's Euro sorta looks like the kind of system we see in late MAR with a u/l Low over SW VA/NW NC and the mts. getting nailed with 850 temps fine but our surface temps a hair too warm. It's in fantasy range but interesting nonetheless because it's pretty classic for late season. It'll likely be gone by 12Z but it's there for a few more hours. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 Day 10 on last night's Euro sorta looks like the kind of system we see in late MAR with a u/l Low over SW VA/NW NC and the mts. getting nailed with 850 temps fine but our surface temps a hair too warm. It's in fantasy range but interesting nonetheless because it's pretty classic for late season. It'll likely be gone by 12Z but it's there for a few more hours. lol Looks like a classic spring ULL, NC high country heavy snow event. Boone nailed. 40s and rain elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 It could happen (like the NAM) but check out how it comes together at 500mb--seemingly impossible to figure out at this range. If it's right the Euro deserves a medal for valor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 It could happen (like the NAM) but check out how it comes together at 500mb--seemingly impossible to figure out at this range. If it's right the Euro deserves a medal for valor.what do you mean by like the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 what do you mean by like the nam He means it isn't going to snow again until at least next November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 13, 2015 Author Share Posted March 13, 2015 The models have been showing several different looks for the period, but with no real consistency to give confidence there will be a storm that could "potentially" bring us (DCA/BWI area) snow, let alone concrete signal for a snow storm. If the Euro can hold this look for several days and at least one other credible model support it, then I could see giving JI the go-ahead to start a threat thread (say that 5x times fast out loud and see if it doesn't generate a 911 call). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 what do you mean by like the nam Just in general.. the NAM could be right but it usually isn't. The storm develops from a lobe of a vort in central canada merging with another coming in off the Pacific between next Wed and Sat or so then dives to our south. Just seems a long shot for that solution at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 Just in general.. the NAM could be right but it usually isn't. The storm develops from a lobe of a vort in central canada merging with another coming in off the Pacific between next Wed and Sat or so then dives to our south. Just seems a long shot for that solution at the moment. I'm paying almost no attention to ops. We need air cold enough to either be on the doorstep or overhead before any op run is meaningful (and I'm sure that's how you feel all the time. lol). Ensembles are in total spray mode beyond d6 Euro ens is starting to pick up on the possibility in d7-10 range. Looks better beyond but we're really fighting an uphill climo battle by then. Latest weeklies still look pretty annoying weeks 3-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 13, 2015 Author Share Posted March 13, 2015 I'm paying almost no attention to ops. We need air cold enough to either be on the doorstep or overhead before any op run is meaningful (and I'm sure that's how you feel all the time. lol). Ensembles are in total spray mode beyond d6 Euro ens is starting to pick up on the possibility in d7-10 range. Looks better beyond but we're really fighting an uphill climo battle by then. Latest weeklies still look pretty annoying weeks 3-4. idk if it's just me, but after this winter, upper 40's and low 50's seem warm to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 I'm paying almost no attention to ops. We need air cold enough to either be on the doorstep or overhead before any op run is meaningful (and I'm sure that's how you feel all the time. lol). Ensembles are in total spray mode beyond d6 Euro ens is starting to pick up on the possibility in d7-10 range. Looks better beyond but we're really fighting an uphill climo battle by then. Latest weeklies still look pretty annoying weeks 3-4. Definitely a chance somewhere out there it seems. I think elevation n/w probably is about a flip of the coin for more "decent" (~2"+).. around me maybe more like 25%. Once we blow past Mar 20-25 it's going to take a lot of luck to get more than a hefty dusting around here probably. Even with the colder looks it still seems we get to ~50+ many days which isn't too terrible even if a bit cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 13, 2015 Author Share Posted March 13, 2015 The latest run of the 10 day Canadian temp ensembles have just reversed course (this is from last night's 0Z run-this ensemble product is only run during the 0Z cycle as far as I know). Without this continuing to trend colder, it'll be hard, at least for me, to get seriously excited about the prospects of snow in the low lands. Weenie dreaming is, of course, another matter. http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/tenday_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 euro looks like its going to snow at 174...lets see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 congrats central and southern VA for now ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 Oh yea...this has BIG potential!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 It just needs to trend north a bit.....double digit snow for Richmond LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 The latest run of the 10 day Canadian temp ensembles have just reversed course (this is from last night's 0Z run-this ensemble product is only run during the 0Z cycle as far as I know). Is that different from the 2m temp anomalies shown on tropicaltidbits? Days 5-12 still look pretty cold. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem-ens®ion=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2015031300&fh=252&xpos=0&ypos=222 I don't know if anyone has noticed, but the Canadian ensemble has been on a tear recently. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/ensm/ It has been posting higher verification scores than the GEFS most of the winter, but recently its 10-day H500 anomaly correlation score has passed the NAEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 It just needs to trend north a bit.....double digit snow for Richmond LOL doubtful with those surface temps. edit: hi res looks a little colder than normal rez.. still a wet snow. interesting nonetheless.. not quite the same evolution as 0z but shows the pattern wants to try at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 It just needs to trend north a bit.....double digit snow for Richmond LOL alert! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 I wrote a post out this AM about how close the EURO was to a huge storm for us, but deleted it since it was probably a fluke, but the 12z run....uhhh wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 doubtful with those surface temps. edit: hi res looks a little colder than normal rez.. still a wet snow. interesting nonetheless.. not quite the same evolution as 0z but shows the pattern wants to try at least. The shortwave is forced to dig underneath that big ULL in Canada....If it digs farther and closes off, we'd be talking something historic. lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 The shortwave is forced to dig underneath that big ULL in Canada....If it digs farther and closes off, we'd be talking something historic. lmao With the NAO going negative; the AO tanking, and the PNA treading water in a week, why not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 The shortwave is forced to dig underneath that big ULL in Canada....If it digs farther and closes off, we'd be talking something historic. lmao I'll take the under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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