WxUSAF Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 HM: Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 1m 1 minute ago @antmasiello the only thing keeping me from hyping a KU right now is the calendar for 3/20-25 period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 I want a 3/25 three-peat. I don't care how we do it- can just be a mangled one inch event if you want. Yes, I like spring and all that, but we have plenty of time for warm weather. 3/25 is the new 12/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 10, 2015 Author Share Posted March 10, 2015 HM: Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 1m 1 minute ago @antmasiello the only thing keeping me from hyping a KU right now is the calendar for 3/20-25 period. gotta' like that guy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 HM: Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 1m 1 minute ago @antmasiello the only thing keeping me from hyping a KU right now is the calendar for 3/20-25 period. I saw this and it made me all giddy. How great would it be to have a crushing March storm to close things out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Hopefully it's March 20-24 while I'm out of town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Couple thoughts on the potential switch to a colder regime in about 8 days. Ensembles are basically unanimous on a relatively brief but effective -nao period getting established sometime between the 17th-19th but only lasting a few days. However, the -epo/+pna signal keeps getting stronger and looks to possibly become persistent again. Both the gefs/eps hold it through the end of their runs and the new weeklies hold it through week 3 into week 4. Considering the last period of -epo/+pna lasted over a month, it's hard to doubt a return for a time. What does it mean? Hard to say. It's probably going to be more annoying than anything else. Personally, I'm not looking forward to chilly and windy conditions to close out the month and possibly into early April. But what I want and weather does have zero connection so it is what it is. With the -nao looking to be a quick hitter (assuming it happens), scoring during that period is going to need some luck. Beyond that would be typical stuff that we've seen for 2 winters straight. I guess the odds of additional snow are higher than normal but there is no way to discount hostile climo of the last 10 days of March. This is the 0z EPS d10-15 mean. GEFS looks no different. I'm already accepting the fact that this is probably where were headed for another extended period. The GEFS panel shows a pretty good -nao and displaced lobe into se canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Couple thoughts on the potential switch to a colder regime in about 8 days. Ensembles are basically unanimous on a relatively brief but effective -nao period getting established sometime between the 17th-19th but only lasting a few days. However, the -epo/+pna signal keeps getting stronger and looks to possibly become persistent again. Both the gefs/eps hold it through the end of their runs and the new weeklies hold it through week 3 into week 4. Considering the last period of -epo/+pna lasted over a month, it's hard to doubt a return for a time. What does it mean? Hard to say. It's probably going to be more annoying than anything else. Personally, I'm not looking forward to chilly and windy conditions to close out the month and possibly into early April. But what I want and weather does have zero connection so it is what it is. With the -nao looking to be a quick hitter (assuming it happens), scoring during that period is going to need some luck. Beyond that would be typical stuff that we've seen for 2 winters straight. I guess the odds of additional snow are higher than normal but there is no way to discount hostile climo of the last 10 days of March. This is the 0z EPS d10-15 mean. GEFS looks no different. I'm already accepting the fact that this is probably where were headed for another extended period. The GEFS panel shows a pretty good -nao and displaced lobe into se canada. 5daymean.JPG gefs-nao.JPG It's a fabulous looking pattern for snow for DJF. Probably just means cold rain for most of us, although folks in the mountains could certainly still get a big event without major help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 It's a fabulous looking pattern for snow for DJF. Probably just means cold rain for most of us, although folks in the mountains could certainly still get a big event without major help. Yea, elevation will prob get something decent. You have to wonder if we would have higher chances of accum snow with a ns vort going underneath than something coming up from the gulf. 35 and cold rain while the far burbs and mountains get hit would get on my nerves quite a bit. A digging ns wave with cold air in place might favor a better column for the closer in burbs. Especially at night. Of course there's the outside chance a late march miller A has all the right ingredients but I doubt it would be all snow if it happened. I'm pretty much in warm mode now so if we are going to get cold again, it better snow or it's going to be nails on a chalkboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 10, 2015 Author Share Posted March 10, 2015 It's a fabulous looking pattern for snow for DJF. Probably just means cold rain for most of us, although folks in the mountains could certainly still get a big event without major help. that's what climo says, but we've had some "odd" snow setups this year, so who knows (in essence, I guess I'm just restating HM's thoughts with a weenie's fond memory of the last 4 weeks) otoh, like Bob said, NAO drops, then it rises, which is a great signal for an Archambault event (notice I said event and not snow lol) it's out last howrah for the season, so why not follow it, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 If it was even a week earlier then I'd be much more excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 00z CMC ensembles and GEFS have nearly given up on the idea of snow for DC this Friday, but they continue to show chances near the end of the month. 06z GFS op run makes the most of the pattern near the end of the month, with a coastal storm just off Cape May dropping snow on us. I'm not sure if that's what Highzenberg is getting at -- it would happen about four days after the images he's been posting, when the wave in the southwest makes it across the country. That is exactly what Highsenberg is getting at, the day 10 setup with a west based -NAO, trough axis right over us, and energy coming out of the southwest is perfect for a HECS. What is NOT perfect is the calendar. We will see what happens...the setup is excellent but of course the time of year makes it a super long shot. I consider anything else we get to be bonus at this point anyways so whatever. We are now at the time of year where even if there is a trough in the east a sunny day will feel pleasant anyways so if we get a storm great, if not enjoy the warmer weather and sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Yea, elevation will prob get something decent. You have to wonder if we would have higher chances of accum snow with a ns vort going underneath than something coming up from the gulf. 35 and cold rain while the far burbs and mountains get hit would get on my nerves quite a bit. A digging ns wave with cold air in place might favor a better column for the closer in burbs. Especially at night. Of course there's the outside chance a late march miller A has all the right ingredients but I doubt it would be all snow if it happened. I'm pretty much in warm mode now so if we are going to get cold again, it better snow or it's going to be nails on a chalkboard. Better get your nerve pills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Yea, elevation will prob get something decent. You have to wonder if we would have higher chances of accum snow with a ns vort going underneath than something coming up from the gulf. 35 and cold rain while the far burbs and mountains get hit would get on my nerves quite a bit. A digging ns wave with cold air in place might favor a better column for the closer in burbs. Especially at night. Of course there's the outside chance a late march miller A has all the right ingredients but I doubt it would be all snow if it happened. I'm pretty much in warm mode now so if we are going to get cold again, it better snow or it's going to be nails on a chalkboard. You are probably right about the NS vort idea, but getting one to dig this far south in late march will be a chore for sure. Our best shot at anything more then snow tv in this pattern would be to get a low to bomb just southeast of us and the H5 to cut off over DC. That is how most of the anomalous late seasons storms have happened in the past. That is how march 58 happened. Started as rain pretty much everywhere. If the low is already mature coming at us it is likely to bring up more warmth then the cold can fight off this late in the season. We need it to develop and bomb at just the right time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 monster -NAO on the GFS but the PV is just crushing everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 monster -NAO on the GFS but the PV is just crushing everything Yup....this time the -NAO might be modeled correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 monster -NAO on the GFS but the PV is just crushing everything Well swell. That's just fantastic news for late March. Eff this weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 GGEM at 240 looks interesting, but the high is moving away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Yup....this time the -NAO might be modeled correctly. there is always something new on the modeling that shows up to screw us lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 monster -NAO on the GFS but the PV is just crushing everything This is actually the time frame where we probably want the models over doing the PV and crushing, especially late March. What are the odds the PV is actually that far south and strong enough to crush everything the last week of March? Either way its all bonus anyways considering the time of year. Going to be a while before the outcome is resolved its a LONG ways off. Shame this pattern might be coming a couple weeks too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 This is actually the time frame where we probably want the models over doing the PV and crushing, especially late March. What are the odds the PV is actually that far south and strong enough to crush everything the last week of March? Either way its all bonus anyways considering the time of year. Going to be a while before the outcome is resolved its a LONG ways off. Shame this pattern might be coming a couple weeks too late. You would be surprised. I'll take the over. Winter pattern recognition is useful. Aside from December, this stuff had a hay-day in our backyards. No doubt will result in something different tho, given the shortening wavelengths. Right now, too crushing for a 93 redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 You would be surprised. I'll take the over. Winter pattern recognition is useful. Aside from December, this stuff had a hay-day in our backyards. No doubt will result in something different tho, given the shortening wavelengths. Right now, too crushing for a 93 redux. a 93 type storm is not really on the table, not the right setup to get that kind of triple phased monster. NAO was actually really positive during that event. This pattern would be more similar to a 1958 type setup. Either way late march storms like that are 1 in 50 years type events so odds are long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 a 93 type storm is not really on the table, not the right setup to get that kind of triple phased monster. NAO was actually really positive during that event. This pattern would be more similar to a 1958 type setup. Either way late march storms like that are 1 in 50 years type events so odds are long. 2015-1958 = 57. WE ARE DUE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 2015-1958 = 57. WE ARE DUE! yea but we had one in 1942 also, so by that logic we have had our 2 in the last 100 years so were not due yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 yea but we had one in 1942 also, so by that logic we have had our 2 in the last 100 years so were not due yet... Seems to be a hallmark of the bookend -PDO pattern, perhaps the +AMO as well. We are in that arena but since 2013 we've lost the -PDO in a traditional sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 [Annoying statistics geek] That's not how statistics work people. There's no such thing as "being due". [/Annoying statistics geek] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 [Annoying statistics geek] That's not how statistics work people. There's no such thing as "being due". [/Annoying statistics geek] I got attacked by a PhD student for mentioning being due in an article once lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 I got attacked by a PhD student for mentioning being due in an article once lol. Sometimes the smarter you get, the dumber you get. I'm not even going to think about what could happen in a week or two. It's nice to see the -nao seemingly coming to fruition unless the models are really off course. Mostly from an interesting standpoint because it's been so long. As far as getting more snow...eh...maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 [Annoying statistics geek] That's not how statistics work people. There's no such thing as "being due". [/Annoying statistics geek] I think (hope) we were all just having fun with the statistics thing.... considering our last "threat" of the season is 12-15 days away and its a powerball lottery ticket odds threat, we might as well have a little fun with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Sometimes the smarter you get, the dumber you get. I'm not even going to think about what could happen in a week or two. It's nice to see the -nao seemingly coming to fruition unless the models are really off course. Mostly from an interesting standpoint because it's been so long. As far as getting more snow...eh...maybe. yep, even up here I am skeptical but its all we have left to track so why not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Sometimes the smarter you get, the dumber you get. I'm not even going to think about what could happen in a week or two. It's nice to see the -nao seemingly coming to fruition unless the models are really off course. Mostly from an interesting standpoint because it's been so long. As far as getting more snow...eh...maybe. I wouldn't be too surprised if we run into a lengthier -NAO in the weeks/mo ahead. Seems we have in recent springs/even into summers (minus maybe 2013?). Might as well mess with severe season at this point too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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