yoda Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 12z GEFS and Canadian ensembles are more supportive than 00z were. About 30% of GEFS members and 20% of Canadian members show snow for DC. A few members show 6"+. 10 of the 51 12z EPS members show 2" or more for DC... 4 show 6"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 sir check your messages please What messages? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 FWIW -- http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&stn2=PNM&hh2=144&fixhh=1&stn2_type=anal&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=120 12z UKIE at 120 has a 1040mb H in extreme northern New York/Southern Quebec with a decent CAD signal This is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 What messages? sent you a question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 12z GEFS and Canadian ensembles are more supportive than 00z were. About 30% of GEFS members and 20% of Canadian members show snow for DC. A few members show 6"+. GGEM still shows rain. Trend is our friend. We've seen it all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 sent you a question Heather Archambault? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 Heather Archambault? amen thank you sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 I like it. CAD is always colder than what models show. Ironically my concern isn't the surface with this setup, It's a sneaky warm layer above 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 Ironically my concern isn't the surface with this setup, It's a sneaky warm layer above 850. lol I dont like the 500 mb look, 850, or the surface. Weak sauce. If anything there might be a better shot at something a couple days later. 18z GFS is now hinting at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 Stepping away from model raw output and thinking about the general idea doesn't paint a rosey picture. I agree with Cape. Were getting into difficult climo time. The airmass overhead leading in is not conducive. Relying on a pressing airmass to clash with precip is a flag. It's marginal at best even if it presses enough. It's just a typical Canadian hp and not arctic. Precip looks light and surface even after dark is pretty weak. To get sticking snow it has to either puke on us during daylight or be below freezing after dark. Neither of which appear to be the case. The gfs does show some sub freezing 2m temps but that can change really easy. We've gotten really lucky a bunch this year and last. If this thing does drop more than 1" near the cities then there is clearly a golden horseshoe working magic that defies logic. Euro ens look pretty good down the line with the trough axis. Hopefully the 17th-23rd tosses us a bone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 Early morn. March 22, throws down a tidbit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 Trend is our friend. We've seen it all year. You sure about that... the trend has only been our friend since 2/21. Most of the winter the trend has NOT been our friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 You know winter is coming to an end where there are only two posts after 10pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 See guys in October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 Almost time for the mid-Atlantic fantasy severe season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 If anyone has an interest, Larry Cosgrove likes one last eastern cold and coastal threat around the 20th or so. He's been pretty good all winter, so worth keeping an eye I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 GFS and NAM can't seem to agree on rain for tomorrow. Surprise. NAM is mostly showery/dry. GFS gets a larger chunk of the area in the .5-1" range. I suppose its best to take a blend of the two. Last nights euro really didn't like the chances of snow outside the mountains and NNE. And it stayed mild locally. Highs in the 50s 8 of the next 10 days at DCA without a single < 32 low?? If that happens we're going to have trees budding everywhere. Hopefully pollen isn't too bad this spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 GFS and NAM can't seem to agree on rain for tomorrow. Surprise. NAM is mostly showery/dry. GFS gets a larger chunk of the area in the .5-1" range. I suppose its best to take a blend of the two. Last nights euro really didn't like the chances of snow outside the mountains and NNE. And it stayed mild locally. Highs in the 50s 8 of the next 10 days at DCA without a single < 32 low?? If that happens we're going to have trees budding everywhere. Hopefully pollen isn't too bad this spring. I wonder if an early start is not better for allergy sufferers (like myself). A late start may just compress the season and make it more intense. I do know that it is all about heat and moisture for me. My misery is proportional to temperature. The hotter it gets the worse my allergies. 60F from now until June (preferably through Sept ) with ample rain would make me quite happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 If the gfs from 6z I looked at is correct, we are going to have a miserable period from this weekend into at least early next week. Pretty much the worse case scenario........cold and damp. I want a blizzard or a sunny torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 9, 2015 Author Share Posted March 9, 2015 If the gfs from 6z I looked at is correct, we are going to have a miserable period from this weekend into at least early next week. Pretty much the worse case scenario........cold and damp. I want a blizzard or a sunny torch. yeah, after this weekend, I almost forgot about winter.....until I realized there was still a heck of a lot of snow hanging around it's hard to believe the I95 corridor has a legit shot at much before we get the advertised switch, and even then we'll need a whole lot of help/luck it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 Friday is still of interest. Cold air pressing in, now looks like late afternoon temps in the upper 30's, see what nightime and some more cold air pressing will bring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 el oh el Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 severe weather in the southern plains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAsnowlvr82 Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 severe weather in the southern plains? Wrong thread!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Nam 84 fwiw is detecting more cad down our way. Seems like it picked up on it early the last couple ice events too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 heh Please stop posting these horrific images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 00z CMC ensembles and GEFS have nearly given up on the idea of snow for DC this Friday, but they continue to show chances near the end of the month. 06z GFS op run makes the most of the pattern near the end of the month, with a coastal storm just off Cape May dropping snow on us. I'm not sure if that's what Highzenberg is getting at -- it would happen about four days after the images he's been posting, when the wave in the southwest makes it across the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 heh Not worth staying up for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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