Jebman Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 We managed snow after the 20th both last year and in 2013. With a look like this on the ensembles I'm not so sure why others are so bearish on snow later in the month. Obviously any event would have to be at night and would probably be more slushy than snowy inside the city. P003 has Bob Chill's HECS. We have at least one more snowstorm left in us this month. Let's bring this one home. It just wants to snow here this winter. We are a snowtown. We got this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 6z gfs is somewhat interesting for the far NW burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 I know it's the 10-day GGEM op, but this looks pretty good to my untrained eye. I'd be interested in what others have to say about the pattern. The ensembles seem to support this general pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 6z gfs is somewhat interesting for the far NW burbs Meh, maybe. Looks wet. The only cold air is in NE. Would be chilly but not cold. Beyond that lots of typical March weather with temps in the 50s mostly. The period around the 20th still looks kinda interesting, although the 500 mb height pattern doesnt look as impressive to me on GEFS on the last several runs as it did on previous cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 the 500 mb height pattern doesnt look as impressive to me on GEFS on the last several runs as it did on previous cycles. Agree. It's a chilly look but the trough axis is too far east. Not a good storm pattern unless that changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 need one more 30+ transitory dump last week of mar or first week of april to make my numbers in teh contest seem somewhat respectable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 Cool story, Tropical Cyclone on the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 Welcome to 'backdoor hell' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 12z Gfs would theoretically drop 2-6" around the region Friday night. I'm not buying it at all but it's not the first run showing the hp being strong enough to get the column right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 Backdoor hp, CAD, almost always under modeled. Will the precip be there is the question. I honestly can't say I'm happy to see that. The past two days have me firmly in spring mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 12z Gfs would theoretically drop 2-6" around the region Friday night. I'm not buying it at all but it's not the first run showing the hp being strong enough to get the column right.gfs had insisted on this for a few days but of course euro says no way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 Not sure what to think on that one.. a usual since I am a waffler. GFS solution is certainly interesting. I think losing snowpack is going to change the equation a bit on marginal events going forward, though we may still keep it in the immediate source regions for cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 6z gfs is somewhat interesting for the far NW burbs 12z too....can I get another meh from the peanut gallery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 Ill give it a meh bc I don't want rain and the gfs is very wet over the next 10 days. We don't need rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 Ill give it a meh bc I don't want rain and the gfs is very wet over the next 10 days. We don't need rain. Meh for the same reason, plus we are in a mild pattern now, and also following this "event". Its a transient High/ back door cold front. NE could cash in on some snow/ice in a set up as advertised. Down this way, seems unlikely, but who knows maybe it evolves. GEM or Euro got anything other than rain? Last I saw it looked like a no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 Meh for the same reason, plus we are in a mild pattern now, and also following this "event". Its a transient High/ back door cold front. NE could cash in on some snow/ice in a set up as advertised. Down this way, seems unlikely, but who knows maybe it evolves. GEM or Euro got anything other than rain? Last I saw it looked like a no. Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 Meh I like surprise snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 I like surprise snow Our timing has been very good of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 Mehmeh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 Euro is a slushy couple inches n and w. Big step towards gfs. Weird setup. Would be stupid luck if something worked out here. I remain skeptical but vigilant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 Euro is a slushy couple inches n and w. Big step towards gfs. Weird setup. Would be stupid luck if something worked out here. I remain skeptical but vigilant. Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 Not tracking a 1-3-rain event. Even though the last one ended up giving me 12". The GFS D10+ looks good, but we had similar patterns in March 2006 and March 2008 that didn't produce anything except a little bit of cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 Euro is a slushy couple inches n and w. Big step towards gfs. Weird setup. Would be stupid luck if something worked out here. I remain skeptical but vigilant. I like it. CAD is always colder than what models show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 I have been wondering about Friday also. 1030+ high directly north is likely going to be cold, not sure why that idea is being muted, daytime real tough now but nightime still easy. After that it looks like a pretty cold5-7 day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 I like it. CAD is always colder than what models show. sir check your messages please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 I have been wondering about Friday also. 1030+ high directly north is likely going to be cold, not sure why that idea is being muted, daytime real tough now but nightime still easy. After that it looks like a pretty cold5-7 day period. as usual makes no sense. highs in 40's, lows in 40's. those temp profiles generally do not support snow, even with your magic barometer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 I like it. CAD is always colder than what models show. Almost 100% always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 It is also helpful that the H is a strong one (i.e. 1040mb+), not some weak 1030mb garbage high... I think we have a chance as long as the H is in that position the 12z GFS shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 12z GEFS and Canadian ensembles are more supportive than 00z were. About 30% of GEFS members and 20% of Canadian members show snow for DC. A few members show 6"+. GGEM still shows rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 FWIW -- http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&stn2=PNM&hh2=144&fixhh=1&stn2_type=anal&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=120 12z UKIE at 120 has a 1040mb H in extreme northern New York/Southern Quebec with a decent CAD signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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