AvantHiatus Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 You might need to clarify further. We just had a major snow with a ridiculously positive AO, a ridiculously negative PNA, and a positive NAO. March 5th is the new February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 By the 15th? Not seeing that. What are you looking at? Looks more like the 18th-20th to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Hopeful that this one does the same. We had a negative NAO in late December -- it did nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 We had a negative NAO in late December -- it did nothing. That EPO is ripping thru man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 That EPO is ripping thru man. You can see even a 'good' pattern keeps us right on the fringe of enough cold late in the ens. wischasting/leaning favorable is cool in january.. in mid-March I'm going to push back hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 careful...you downplayed, if not poo-poo'ed, Thursday's event 5 days out too anything's possible in MAR as long as we can revert back to the pattern of the last 3+ weeks after next week's break no i didn't.. you're an anti science weenie. if you're going to lie I will attack you. just because I wasn't locking in on models 7 days out is not poo pooing.. learn some things. i saw the same **** you did.. i can formulate thoughts without making an unnecessary call from range and then praying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 We had a negative NAO in late December -- it did nothing. A very transient dip that lasted a day or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 You might need to clarify further. We just had a major snow with a ridiculously positive AO, a ridiculously negative PNA, and a positive NAO. Big difference between mid to late March and the first week, especially in the metro areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 EPS and GEFS are bearish on snow the next 10 days. If we punt the next 10 days, we basically need perfect setups in the metro area for more than snow TV. Maybe I'm missing something though... 00z GEFS Meteogram temps: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Big difference between mid to late March and the first week, especially in the metro areas. LOL, thanks for clarifying. I have no doubt that you never read the post I replied to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 By the 15th? Not seeing that. What are you looking at? Looks more like the 18th-20th to me. wxbell numerical indices page. Euro/gem/gfs ops and ensembles all show the nao dipping negative on the 15th. Trough in the east doesn't establish until the 18-19th so initially it means nothing other than a #. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 You might need to clarify further. We just had a major snow with a ridiculously positive AO, a ridiculously negative PNA, and a positive NAO. I said unless there is a very anomalous setup. I went back and checked IAD's #. 80% of marches with decent snow had a moderate to strong -nao on the means for the month. I didn't say it was required. It certainly ups the odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 wxbell numerical indices page. Euro/gem/gfs ops and ensembles all show the nao dipping negative on the 15th. Trough in the east doesn't establish until the 18-19th so initially it means nothing other than a #.NOAA ensemble page keeps it positive or close to neutral till after that. Only a few below that. There's a difference between having an -NAO on charts and having a good setup for us. I don't see a good -NAO till after on GFS and Euro ensembles. Still have pretty low height over Greenland/west by the 15th on eps/gfs ens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 NOAA ensemble page keeps it positive or close to neutral till after that. Only a few below that. There's a difference between having an -NAO on charts and having a good setup for us. I don't see a good -NAO till after on GFS and Euro ensembles. Still have pretty low height over Greenland/west by the 15th on eps/gfs ens. Agreed. It's probably the higher heights over Iceland on the 15th dropping the index before the pattern looks better on paper. It builds in the from the east so it's a process obviously. I think seeing fairly strong consensus with the upper air pattern after the 15th gives the idea some credence but we've been fooled plenty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 On paper the means look good for around 18-21st. Something could happen, but we all know avg high temps are in the 50s etc. I am going to keep enjoying the snow thats on the ground today, then enjoy the normal March weather we get over the next week or so. After that, I probably wont care either way if it snows again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Agreed. It's probably the higher heights over Iceland on the 15th dropping the index before the pattern looks better on paper. It builds in the from the east so it's a process obviously. I think seeing fairly strong consensus with the upper air pattern after the 15th gives the idea some credence but we've been fooled plenty.Fair enough. I don't really disagree with you fundamentally. I think the move is def toward a negative nao.. More wondering if it will be too late for anything but cold air. I dont look at the charts much. I think you are pretty honest in your interpretation.. Really not trying to pick a fight with anyone on this. Just don't really appreciate that sometimes waiting for things to come together is viewed as a negative here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Ops and ensembles are unanimous with the nao going negative on the 15th. So 8 days away and not 10+. If it fails it will be the closest range fail of the year wxrisk won't like your synopsis at all!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 I know it has a small % of happening, but run after run, the LR GFS & ensembles keep hinting at +PNA, -NAO, displaced PV.....This might be the year for some closed off bomb to drop East of VA surprisingly that is what JB suggested Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 There are several holy grails that have taken a beating lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 7, 2015 Author Share Posted March 7, 2015 It's still pretty far off for something we don't do often here. Euro looks decent.. best south of here. You know the rest of my thoughts lol. Maybe except in this case it's probably most likely to fall apart and shift southeast. no i didn't.. you're an anti science weenie. if you're going to lie I will attack you. just because I wasn't locking in on models 7 days out is not poo pooing.. learn some things. i saw the same **** you did.. i can formulate thoughts without making an unnecessary call from range and then praying. I said 5 days out....storm March 5, go back 5 days to 2/28 those posts clearly showed you were at least downplaying it you've been in DC too long my friend, you think snarky answers and equivocal statements are going to make you right more often than not instead of taking a real stand bottom line, you down played it and poo-poo'ed it and calling me a liar and cursing doesn't change those facts and apparently me calling the pattern must piss you off lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Fair enough. I don't really disagree with you fundamentally. I think the move is def toward a negative nao.. More wondering if it will be too late for anything but cold air. I dont look at the charts much. I think you are pretty honest in your interpretation.. Really not trying to pick a fight with anyone on this. Just don't really appreciate that sometimes waiting for things to come together is viewed as a negative here.I totally get where you're coming from. I'm probably no different in how I feel about chances but I'm a self proclaimed optimist so that spin is always rooted in my posts when looking a good bit down the line. For the record, I think the chance of seeing snow fall again is better than 50/50. Otoh- the chances of a warning criteria event outside of elevation is less than 10%. A sloppy inch or two is 25% at best. If the flip to cold gets pushed back further in time like it often does then odds decrease quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 I said 5 days out....storm March 5, go back 5 days to 2/28 those posts clearly showed you were at least downplaying it you've been in DC too long my friend, you think snarky answers and equivocal statements are going to make you right more often than not instead of taking a real stand bottom line, you down played it and poo-poo'ed it and calling me a liar and cursing doesn't change those facts and apparently me calling the pattern must piss you off lol wait you're quoting my posts from a week out? i actually never said it wasn't going to happen.. i did repeatedly say it was not a typical setup to score big (it wasn't) and that we 'just can't know yet' as a joke and because i was tracking a system ahead of it. in 09-10 a lot of weenies had a great year of forecasting too. i never poo pooed anything.. in fact I was quite bullish in a realistic range so please STFU. no real forecasters say we're a lock on something a week out.. maybe you can't understand that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 12z GFS still hinting at Miller A around Day 10... 850s were fine this run.... but 2m temps iffy... GFS has been signaling the 17th-18th for quite a while now ETA: Another one appears at the end of the run as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 7, 2015 Author Share Posted March 7, 2015 wait you're quoting my posts from a week out? i actually never said it wasn't going to happen.. i did repeatedly say it was not a typical setup to score big (it wasn't) and that we 'just can't know yet' as a joke and because i was tracking a system ahead of it. in 09-10 a lot of weenies had a great year of forecasting too. i never poo pooed anything.. in fact I was quite bullish in a realistic range so please STFU. no real forecasters say we're a lock on something a week out.. maybe you can't understand that. haha....5 DAYS, not a week, what are you reading? (3/5 minus 1 day is 3/4, 3/4 minus 1 day is 3/3, 3/3 minus 1 day is 3/2, 3/2 minus 1 day is 3/1, 3/1 minus 1 day is 2/28-the dates of the posts I quoted) again, wrt to your characterization, you are not reading, I said down-played, if not poo-poo'ed and then there is your obligatory "maybe you can't understand"....again, that DC thing look, your posts are there and mine are there...you obviously take this way more seriously than I do if anyone is bored they can go back and look p.s.: speaking of a week out, I think it was a week, if not more, that I said I felt we were in for at least one more moderate event defined as 4"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Gefs are a little more bullish with the high than the OP. day 7-8. . It will be hard to get snow this far south, but I have a feeling SNE will get buried again. Edit: euro gives the GEFS the finger and is still insisting on a Pactorch for all of the US day 7-10. Will see a few days in the 60s if that verifies. Edit2: Looking at the height animosities we are relying on a backdoor cold front to get near normal temps in the day7-10 period. Otherwise it will be well above normal, was dumb of me to talk about snow in the timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Euro has a major bias of Too much trough in west this year when historic pdo does not support it especially in 7 to 10 day range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Euro has a major bias of Too much trough in west this year when historic pdo does not support it especially in 7 to 10 day range The next 7-10 days look terrible for snow chances across the board. We need an arctic high to drop down and get trapped. Or time with something. That's not happening until the -epo comes back. Canada is going to get assaulted with pac air in the medium range. Even a strong hp in se canada won't deliver what we need. Hopefully the pattern advertised from the 18-23rd happens in some fashion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 The next 7-10 days look terrible for snow chances across the board. We need an arctic high to drop down and get trapped. Or time with something. That's not happening until the -epo comes back. Canada is going to get assaulted with pac air in the medium range. Even a strong hp in se canada won't deliver what we need. Hopefully the pattern advertised from the 18-23rd happens in some fashion. Yeah I thought anything next weekend looked back-doorish when I looked this morning. Thats not gonna do it here, esp not in March. The 0z GFS ens mean looked quite good for around the 20th. Have been out enjoying the weather so not paid attention to today's guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 We managed snow after the 20th both last year and in 2013. With a look like this on the ensembles I'm not so sure why others are so bearish on snow later in the month. Obviously any event would have to be at night and would probably be more slushy than snowy inside the city. P003 has Bob Chill's HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navm.html?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2015030618&fh=384&xpos=4&ypos=208 GFS says we are not done with winter just yet. Probably wrong but better than showing no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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