mitchnick Posted March 6, 2015 Author Share Posted March 6, 2015 huh? we've seen them fail on an -nao repeatedly.. they still have a greenland vortex till like d10.I didn't say anything about the nao, did I? I was referring to storm patterns, which is all I ever care about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Damn. Guess I better put my AmWx spring and summer hibernation plans on hold. I know its long range, but we know March can produce (with lots of luck). I'm all in for anything that gives us 1 more shot. Had too much fun yesterday to not want that just 1 more time. How great would it be if we finally got our ever elusive -NAO to boot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Another thing that has been poorly forecast most of the winter seems to have good agreement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Gfs 18z Hates ian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Regional models have difficulty maintaining the largest scales/longest wavelengths (think continental scale and beyond even) when they are allowed to cycle on their own states. The NAM, RAP, and HRRR all use some form of partial cycling for this very reason. It also helps with satellite radiance assimilation, which requires bias correction, which requires large (global) samples of data to do correctly/consistently. Thanks again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Pretty unusual consistency with the global ens at long leads. Maybe our miller A with a block will be a going away present The GEM ensemble is on board as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Gfs 18z Hates ian It sure does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 same date as March 1958. Bring it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 It sure does There is potential for sure! Globals show it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Gfs 18z Hates ian I really hope we see more 384 op GFS maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 I really hope we see more 384 op GFS maps. I don't think anyone is taking that seriously or at least I hope not. Potential seems to be there, but we need it at night or -20 daytime departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 I really hope we see more 384 op GFS maps. Somebody should start a thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 We had a good snow last year on the 17th, the year before on the 18th and 25th. If we get more, it's not a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 We had a good snow last year on the 17th, the year before on the 18th and 25th. If we get more, it's not a surprise. I think the year before might have missed DC proper, hard to remember anything good from that season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 I don't think anyone is taking that seriously or at least I hope not. Potential seems to be there, but we need it at night or -20 daytime departures.I'm only interested in the lw pattern being advertised on the ensembles. If we're going to repeat second half of march snow, the ensemble look is one that leaves the possibility open. Even during solid climo we waste good patterns more often than not On a fun note....18z gfs drops 3-6" d9-10. Almost in range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 I think the year before might have missed DC proper, hard to remember anything good from that season. DC got shafted in early March of 2013, but I think they got snow on the two later dates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 I'm only interested in the lw pattern being advertised. If we're going to repeat second half of march snow, the ensemble look is one that leaves the possibility open. Even during solid climo we waste good patterns more often than not On a fun note....18z gfs drops 3-6" d9-10. Almost in range. We scoff at 3-6" around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 I think the year before might have missed DC proper, hard to remember anything good from that season. March 25th, 2013 was an area-wide event. Here are the totals http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/events/?event=20130325 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 I'm only interested in the lw pattern being advertised on the ensembles. If we're going to repeat second half of march snow, the ensemble look is one that leaves the possibility open. Even during solid climo we waste good patterns more often than not On a fun note....18z gfs drops 3-6" d9-10. Almost in range. Staying up for the Euro tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 March 25th, 2013 was an area wide event. Here are the totals http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/events/?event=20130325 Missed school and went skiing at Timberline that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Staying up for the Euro tonight? Only if I'm awake anyway. I definitely won't be after DST. Unless we're staring down the barrel of a HECS inside of 4 days.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Only if I'm awake anyway. I definitely won't be after DST. Unless we're staring down the barrel of a HECS inside of 4 days.... 200-240 hours. It's coming. GFS doesn't have a handle on the cold. Or something like that. Yeah...that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 March 25th, 2013 was an area-wide event. Here are the totals http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/events/?event=20130325 The 3" on March 25th (overnight) 2013 was the highest of the season for me. It's the system that "turned the tide" for sucky winters here in the D.C. area. March hasn't been the same since Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 The 3" on March 25th (overnight) 2013 was the highest of the season for me. It's the system that "turned the tide" for sucky winters here in the D.C. area. March hasn't been the same since 4.8" here... my only WSW criteria total that season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Who has the Dec 5th threat On a model? If we can post to 384 then what is stopping us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 It's important that people tell us how difficult it is for it to snow in mid to late March...I'm not sure but we will need really big departures plus it needs to snow at night and we will need rates and oh yeah luck...lots of luck...it's gonna be late March after all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 It's important that people tell us how difficult it is for it to snow in mid to late March...I'm not sure but we will need really big departures plus it needs to snow at night and we will need rates and oh yeah luck...lots of luck...it's gonna be late March after all 32F in late March is not the same as 32F in January. Also snow cover in Turkey is decreasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Great things can happen at night in March. It's tough during the day from now on as we need departures of -22 or colder, right timing, right rates. At night, just -5 to -10 will do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 It's important that people tell us how difficult it is for it to snow in mid to late March...I'm not sure but we will need really big departures plus it needs to snow at night and we will need rates and oh yeah luck...lots of luck...it's gonna be late March after all Yawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 We had a good snow last year on the 17th, the year before on the 18th and 25th. If we get more, it's not a surprise. who said it would be a surprise? spin spin spin. plenty of talk about big potential, return of the miller A in -nao to go out with a bang etc.. it's d10 and beyond lol. worst thing ever is someone to say that. unfettered snow cheerleading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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