Ji Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 18z gfs has rain to snow d9-10like those ever work out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 What's with all of this "last storm of the season". It's March. We've got one more left in us. Maybe I should rephrase.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Euro weeklies sincerely apologize to anyone rooting for warmth. Weeks 3-4 are below normal. Nice -epo reload signal. Our last hurrah may not have hurrahed yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Euro weeklies sincerely apologize to anyone rooting for warmth. Weeks 3-4 are below normal. Nice -epo reload signal. Our last hurrah may not have hurrahed yet. April is the new March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Or actually, April is the old March. New March is heart of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Modoki El Niño FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Yet another winter where DCA's biggest snow came after 2/20...still keeping to half of the past ten seasons including this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Or actually, April is the old March. New March is heart of winter. In a lot of ways, we have had an incredibly similar pattern from Jan 1 through now as we did during Jan 1 - March 31st last year. It's really bizarre. The pac pattern is stuck in a rut. A good rut for us but wow. Strange stuff. We should NOT be getting snow like we are with the Atlantic stuck in an awful rut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
motsco Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Euro weeklies sincerely apologize to anyone rooting for warmth. Weeks 3-4 are below normal. Nice -epo reload signal. Our last hurrah may not have hurrahed yet. at this point 40* + would feel like spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 18z gfs has rain to snow d9-10 Screw it. May as well get to 40 inches now. Bring it on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 End of GEFS run shows a pretty damn good pattern. If that verifies we'll be chasing snow until April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 In a lot of ways, we have had an incredibly similar pattern from Jan 1 through now as we did during Jan 1 - March 31st last year. It's really bizarre. The pac pattern is stuck in a rut. A good rut for us but wow. Strange stuff. We should NOT be getting snow like we are with the Atlantic stuck in an awful rut. I don't study the large features like you guys do, but from the peanut gallery, it certainly appears that the Pacific trumps the Atlantic. Makes sense since we are downstream from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Modoki El Niño FTW thought the term sounded Japanese. もどき (modoki) translates roughly to mock. Just an FYI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 GGEM looks great at 240 hours.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 GGEM looks great at 240 hours.... Beat me too it. Looks like one of the GGEMs ridiculously overdone high though. I doubt we can get a snowstorm on the 564dm contour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 A little over-running Monday night? (altho may be too warm?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Last nights eps (along with the op) took a big step back from the 12z run with regards to the day 9/10 thing. Waits to long to eject the low from the gulf. In fact, the low just sits there for 3 days before finally moving up the Appalachians when the high us off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Or actually, April is the old March. New March is heart of winter. It kind of is, isn't it? December is the new November. Winter is now January-March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zgummy Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Is the 6z GFS for real? There's lows bouncing all over the place hrs 222 to 288. Never seen that before .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Obviously we're getting to the time of year where it is harder to get good events but does anyone really think that was the last hurrah? I don't but I hear it everywhere today. To be clear I'm not calling for another warning event, just a slower transition to spring I think we'll see a few small slop events that are more likely to be .25" or less, except for the places to the north and west that can pick up a couple inches in those situations. Beyond that, I just can't see anything of significance until next February 15 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Obviously we're getting to the time of year where it is harder to get good events but does anyone really think that was the last hurrah? I don't but I hear it everywhere today. To be clear I'm not calling for another warning event, just a slower transition to spring i think maybe we'll get another little one, but i have a feeling this was one of those pattern changing type storms. also, if the upcoming forecast verifies, then that would be the most extended pattern of mild we've had in months which would make me thing we've turned the corner to spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 6, 2015 Author Share Posted March 6, 2015 Is the 6z GFS for real? There's lows bouncing all over the place hrs 222 to 288. Never seen that before .. this is the time of the year where we get cut off lows, which are usually fairly strong upper level lows that are cut off from the main jet some cut offs have been pretty prolific with snowfall that said, we're at the end of the line when comes to realistic snow chances, so a lot of things have got to go right and we need a whole lot of luck too the fact that the models are showing a "confused Low" setup at the end of the 10 days period suggests that there's something to keep an eye on that has some characteristics of a cut off Low, but no way any model figures out anything for certain at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 this is the time of the year where we get cut off lows, which are usually fairly strong upper level lows that are cut off from the main jet some cut offs have been pretty prolific with snowfall that said, we're at the end of the line when comes to realistic snow chances, so a lot of things have got to go right and we need a whole lot of luck too the fact that the models are showing a "confused Low" setup at the end of the 10 days period suggests that there's something to keep an eye on that has some characteristics of a cut off Low, but no way any model figures out anything for certain at this range We've definitely had the luck part down lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 DC will pretty much need night snow or a thump at like 8 a.m. to get much from here out esp if we punt the next 7-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Miller A type system coming out of the Gulf Monday night into Tuesday still looks a bit south and too warm. No cold source to work with. Per latest 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Miller A type system coming out of the Gulf Monday night into Tuesday still looks a bit south and too warm. No cold source to work with. Per latest 12z GFS. If the southeast ridge were weaker and further southeast it would be an amazing setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 00z EPS for the next 10 days have <1" of the snow on the means for DC. Towards the end of the run, average to slightly above average temps showing up on the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 DC will pretty much need night snow or a thump at like 8 a.m. to get much from here out esp if we punt the next 7-10. We're probably punting 7-10. Ensemble guidance is unanimous in pumping canada with pac air for a while when we lose the -epo. I'm all for a mild stretch to be honest. Even if simply hovering around normal. Early-mid next week through the middle of the following week is looking pretty nice for warmer weather in general. Probably not consecutive days or anything but an overall period that is going to feel far different than what we've been experiencing for months. There's a growing signal beyond that (somewhere around the 16th give or take) where we go back to a -epo/+pna and the AO drops from what appears to be an astounding +5 over the next few days. NAO progs show a dip to negative around that period but I'm not holding my breath. The short story is it appears our milder period is going to be transient. But as you said, the second half of march becomes hostile for snow by default. Even the good setups need to be great or excellent to have a shot. GEFS and EPS look similar from d11+ with colder weather returning in the east with the epo tanking and +ao/nao relaxing. I'm simply going to enjoy the next 10 days or so and not worry about snow. If it ended yesterday I'm more than content. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 I think we'll see a few small slop events that are more likely to be .25" or less, except for the places to the north and west that can pick up a couple inches in those situations. Beyond that, I just can't see anything of significance until next February 15 or so. Last year I recall we had that bowling ball cut-off low that really overperformed...maybe in early April? Trying to remember. I was out in Herndon and it gave us a quick wet 1-2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 ^ I wouldn't be surprised to see it snow again even IMBY.. Mar 25 is still a good ways off. Could definitely have a better shot of a 'sizable' elevation event than normal. I wouldn't even totally rule out another mod event for the immediate area but it will take luck and then some. Probably some cold rain in our future either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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