Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 It's hard to say because there is such a strong shift in a 3 hour period. Using DCA as an example, at 75 hours it is borderline snow, but probably not quite there and 36 degrees, and at 78 hours, it is 29 degrees and ripping. So depends when the changeover happens, and how quickly it gets heavy enough to accumulate. It's kinda funny that we need to root for heavy rain. The flip would be sick if the gfs is right. Love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 every time i check the forecast, the high temp on wednesday goes down. was 60 earlier, now it's 52. It might stay in the 40s... several runs show that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 after 1AM Thursday, .26" falls at both DCA and BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Id like to go back to the 16-20 the euro showed a few days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 It's kinda funny that we need to root for heavy rain. The flip would be sick if the gfs is right. Love it. we get it.....7PM Wed-1AM Thurs .46" qpf falls at BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 It's kinda funny that we need to root for heavy rain. The flip would be sick if the gfs is right. Love it. The synoptics are different, but the ground truth could be a lot like 1/26/11. Late afternoon, early evening, on a dime, we go from heavy rain to torrential snow. Hopefully it comes in early enough to keep Ji on the Toll Road for 10 hours again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 SBY gets nailed on the GFS more than us, so we can afford a bit of a north shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 we get it.....7PM Wed-1AM Thurs .46" qpf falls at BWI Bwi would flip before 1am. The caa behind the front is strong. Column can get right pretty quick with the front. I'm digging this event. I'm not expecting huge #s or anything but I could envision 3-6 hours of 1"+/hr rates. Especially the first couple after the flip. It would be a pasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 as an aside, GFS laughs at the sleet on the NAM and RGEM Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The synoptics are different, but the ground truth could be a lot like 1/26/11. Late afternoon, early evening, on a dime, we go from heavy rain to torrential snow. Hopefully it comes in early enough to keep Ji on the Toll Road for 10 hours again I'd love to see it happen during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 Bwi would flip before 1am. The caa behind the front is strong. Column can get right pretty quick with the front. I'm digging this event. I'm not expecting huge #s or anything but I could envision 3-6 hours of 1"+/hr rates. Especially the first couple after the flip. It would be a pasting. would be a perfect ending to this "last minute" winter we've had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 would be a perfect ending to this "last minute" winter we've had screw that..I'm down with mangled events until April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 as an aside, GFS laughs at the sleet on the NAM and RGEM Tuesday Short range stuff has been doing really well with the recent string of waa into cold antecedent airmasses. Nam/rgem are prob more right than wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 We could use a bit of a north shift. CHO getting a ton of precip on tonight's run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 We could use a bit of a north shift careful what you wish for around here when it comes to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 We could use a bit of a north shift Nah, we just need a faster shift with the caa and leave the precip right where it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 Short range stuff has been doing really well with the recent string of waa into cold antecedent airmasses. Nam/rgem are prob more right than wrong. we'll need the sleet to maintain the snow pack because an inch of rain at or around 40 degrees in early March can quickly melt even the most glaciated snow packs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Nah, we just need a faster shift with the caa and leave the precip right where it is. Excuse what's probably a dumb question, but is that possible without shifting the heavy precip further se? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 screw that..I'm down with mangled events until April. we need a Miller B to clobber us just to say we did it for once Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Excuse what's probably a dumb question, but is that possible without shifting the heavy precip further se? Too many details to give a hard and fast answer. The short story is to root for no delay with the front and let the chips fall. Rain to snow with no lull seems inevitable and the earlier snow starts the more we get imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 we need a Miller B to clobber us just to say we did it for once 2/10/10 did it for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I hate these nail biter systems where you have to wait for cold air and a transition. If it works out it will be a heavy wet snow for sure. That will be a high impact either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 GFS has had a south Jersey jackpot last couple runs.....like 8-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 lol, well I got my Miller B on the GFS, just too far north I guess it would be fitting for the winter to close out with one more Boston bomb, though it doesn't quite show that on this run.....later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 00z UKIE at 72 has a 1007mb SLP in SW VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 lol, well I got my Miller B on the GFS, just too far north I guess it would be fitting for the winter to close out with one more Boston bomb, though it doesn't quite show that on this run.....later? actually, it gives BWI almost 2" with a rogue piece of energy (for lack of a better term) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 00z UKIE at 72 has a 1007mb SLP in SW VA what about the 0-850 line.....location? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 what about the 0-850 line.....location? I am getting it meteocentre... so it will be a few... QPF map at 72 is juicy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 GGEM looks pretty good as well ETA: A paste job of snow for all of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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