Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 What happened to the torch? There was never really a torch being modeled. Just possibly a day 2 before the front that could be warm as the low tracks to the nw. It trended less amped so return flow isn't that strong. RIC and south might hit the 60's on wed. I havent seen a good warm signal at all through the first week of march. There are some decent hints of warmer temps by the 10th or so. Too far out to think much about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 NAM looks pretty damn good to me I agree. Looks like a slug of snow would be moving in at hr 90. But alas, it's the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 NAM is kinda meh unless I'm missing something. Surface temps wouldn't cave until after h84 and by then it looks like most of the precip has slid off to the north and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 NAM looks pretty damn good to me It does once you account for over-amping late in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 NAM is kinda meh unless I'm missing something. Surface temps wouldn't cave until after h84 and by then it looks like most of the precip has slid off to the north and east. That is the scenario you don't want unless you are west of the blue ridge. Yeah, it's similar to the GFS ensembles but I don't think it will play out like this? Flow is just ripping. and yeah, long range NAM is like playing Russian roulette. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 but what's the weather going to be like in Cape May? That is the scenario you don't want unless you are west of the blue ridge. Yeah, it's similar to the GFS ensembles but I don't think it will play out like this? Flow is just ripping. and yeah, long range NAM is like playing Russian roulette. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 It does once you account for over-amping late in the run. IDK, this one could have us all wishing it south before it's over. IMO, this is the thinnest rope we've walked all season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 but what's the weather going to be like in Cape May? Boring and damp. What will the weather be like in Piney Orchard? You might have trouble seeing thru the concrete jungle. Some are legitimately bridge jumping over the NAM, well the winter wasn't that bad. It will snow again before Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 There was never really a torch being modeled. Just possibly a day 2 before the front that could be warm as the low tracks to the nw. It trended less amped so return flow isn't that strong. RIC and south might hit the 60's on wed. I havent seen a good warm signal at all through the first week of march. There are some decent hints of warmer temps by the 10th or so. Too far out to think much about. Keeping my expectations in check for warmth- except for wishcasting 60 on Wed. Damn. Eh. My red shoes need a tune up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Not too worried about the NAM at the end of its run. It does show the very real risk that this goes north (or south).I'm more worried about north then south this time. Euro and gfs have a good solution by ejecting the energy in prices and weak waves riding along the front allowing it to slide east as they traverse. If the energy trends towards one stronger wave as it often does but the front starts in the same spot it could stall it and the snow area would shift north. I'm not going to worry about the 84 hour nam but if the gfs ukmet or euro started to show that then I would get that uh oh feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 RGEM has light snow passing through DC / Baltimore around noon on Tuesday, sleet starting around 2, and a changeover to freezing rain during rush hour. If the end of its run verifies, I hope the road crews around here have saved up some salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Gfs looks great. Just lock this run up please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Gfs:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 00z GFS is a winner for many, still such a weird storm to track. I don't ever really remember a setup like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Gfs looks great. Just lock this run up please. Yes. Let's just lock it in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 snow at 78 hrs with decent qpf to follow http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015030200&time=INSTANT&var=CSNOW&hour=078 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 GFS is 3-5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 GFS looks like area wide 4-6" after the changeover? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Nice run. GFS and NAM pretty far apart wrt the timing of surface temps dropping below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Yes. Let's just lock it in here. After seeing the 18z gefs toss out the scary too far north solutions it's really nice to see the 0z op look great. There's no scary shift this run. Looks excellent for some heavy rates and fast accum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Edited to add: oops, wrong thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Do you guys believe this can deliver 10" of snow to central Miss like the gfs shows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 Instant wx maps is like 3-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Should we start a new thread for the Tuesday event, so we can keep this one focused on Thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 DC probably flips to snow just after hour 75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 lots of rain on the GFS before the change....1"+ at BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 GFS looks like area wide 4-6" after the changeover? It's hard to say because there is such a strong shift in a 3 hour period. Using DCA as an example, at 75 hours it is borderline snow, but probably not quite there and 36 degrees, and at 78 hours, it is 29 degrees and ripping. So depends when the changeover happens, and how quickly it gets heavy enough to accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 lots of rain on the GFS before the change....1"+ at BWIWe need that change sooner or we will lose a lot of accumulating snow to meltage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Instant wx maps is like 3-4" A lot of guidance supporting a 3-5/4-6 type of event. Gfs/euro/ukie/ggem and even the navgem show a similar event. Good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 every time i check the forecast, the high temp on wednesday goes down. was 60 earlier, now it's 52. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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