yoda Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 While we're all focused on the Thursday system, the NAM continues to show a period of heavy sleet falling right during the Tuesday PM rush hour with temperatures just below freezing. Saw that in the soundings... looked ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Who is JB? Justin Berk? Joe Bastardi. He is known as JB around here and Justin Berk is JB2. But usually when someone says JB they are talking about Joe Bastardi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Who is JB? Justin Berk? JB=Joe Bastardi JB2= Justin Berk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Thanks. Now I know :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 So, we're going to warm up for about 6 hours? Looks that way...what happened to the epic 'warm up' for this upcoming week? haha Eventually it will warm up, but looks like not this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Dang, if the NAM is right this snowpack might last until May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 End of the 21z SREFs run looks enticing to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 More importantly, about 3" at DCA and 5-6" at BWI and IAD and I've got the seasonal snow contest wrapped up. Victory is mine! teh contest is all mine. remember it runs thru april. we have this week's event, then a 4 ft region wide dump over two days either last week of march or first week of april. followed by a quick melt, floodings, and lots of sad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Dang, if the NAM is right this snowpack might last until May. Our sun angle will melt Antarctica in 3 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 End of the 21z SREFs run looks enticing to me 21z SREFs mean is 2"... 6 members have 4"+ (ARP1/ARP3/NMN2/ARN3/NMMC/ARWC)... this is for DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Our sun angle will melt Antarctica in 3 hrs. Not if it's cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 00z NAM likes the idea of sleet for several hours Tuesday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 00z GFS likes the idea of sleet for several hours Tuesday afternoon Damn, it came out super early tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Damn, it came out super early tonight! I fixed my mistake... though i wouldn't be surprised if 00z GFS showed same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 00z NAM likes the idea of sleet for several hours Tuesday afternoon how do you have the gfs already. are you nostradamus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Just noticed 18z GFS says ..what torch.. for Wednesday. .has highs not topping 40 in the northern tier counties. Then it has us snowing Thurs. morning with temps in the teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Looks like 4 to 6 hrs of sleet then over to light rain/dry slot for Tuesday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 NAM is later with the cold on this run probably going to go west.....I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 let me just say, I am analyzing the NAM.....it's diff than all the other models so no one should believe it at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 let me just say, I am analyzing the NAM.....it's diff than all the other models so no one should believe it at this point Going to be close looking at 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 Going to be close looking at 72 no it's not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 if it changes to snow on the NAM, it's at 84 hrs. or later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 It has been consistent with a healthy thump of precip during the afternoon / early evening hours with sfc temps below freezing. Potential for an awful Tuesday PM rush hour. 00z NAM likes the idea of sleet for several hours Tuesday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Not too worried about the NAM at the end of its run. It does show the very real risk that this goes north (or south). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 Not too worried about the NAM at the end of its run. It does show the very real risk that this goes north (or south). me neither frankly yeah, it's always nice to see the every model give us a decent hit, but hoping for that with the NAM will get us nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 What happened to the torch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 What happened to the torch? CAD... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 NAM looks pretty damn good to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 What happened to the torch? Every time it looks like a torch is on the horizon it disappears. Climo is on our side now, so even a BN day its still 'warmer' than what we've been dealing with. We're getting to the time of year where we need like -15 to -20 departures or night time to get good snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 let me just say, I am analyzing the NAM.....it's diff than all the other models so no one should believe it at this point It's not that different from some of the gfs ens members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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