psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 It's a go boys. I'm all in. Bob just said the EPS are inEps look like a 3-5" avg across the area.Eta: gfs is alone is centering the wave south. In the end my bigger fear is if the sw energy ejects more and this ends up a bit more amped it could shift north like the feb 2-3 storm last year. Best case scenario would be to get the front to clear east then get the more amped solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 The ground is frozen everywhere probably to a minimum of a foot deep, most likely more. A couple of warm days, at least one of which will likely be cloudy, has ZERO chance of undoing that. Sure, you can warm some asphalt, a little, but it takes a long time to warm the ground to the point where it can effect snowfall. And, as Ian said, you've got to melt the snow first. I'm looking at road temps more than grass cover. I'm concerned about road conditions for work, grass cover for personal fun ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Roads are problematic now for high impact any way you cut it. A day near freezing with clouds and precip plus traffic keeps them wet. The main remedy is thumpage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Yup... too bad its out in SREFs la-la land We do la-la-land really well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Yes, but you've already put your chips back in for next year. I see nothing at this point to indicate next year will suck. If anything early signs are good. Of course it's a crap shoot this far out but why be negative until there is a reason too. Besides I don't need 40" to be happy. Give me one good 12"+ snow and a good 10 day period of snowcover and I'm ok. I can pull that off up here in a mediocre year usually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I see nothing at this point to indicate next year will suck. If anything early signs are good. Of course it's a crap shoot this far out but why be negative until there is a reason too. Besides I don't need 40" to be happy. Give me one good 12"+ snow and a good 10 day period of snowcover and I'm ok. I can pull that off up here in a mediocre year usually. We are due for something nasty and torchy, based on statistics and also the progression of oscillations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2015 Author Share Posted March 1, 2015 We are due for something nasty and torchy, based on statistics and also the progression of oscillations.shocked, just shocked, to see you post this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 We are due for something nasty and torchy, based on statistics and also the progression of oscillations. That's what you were saying about this winter back in October. If anything we're due for a -NAO. I could see a 2006-07 type deal next winter if we go Niño/+QBO like we did then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I don't really get the "we're due for another torch winter" talk. Maybe it's for humor. Yeah, we had a great winter last year and this one is now working out well, thanks to a great 4-6 week period right at the end. If it weren't for that, we'd all be complaining how this year sucked or how cold was wasted every time (not long ago, that's what we were doing!). We've had our share of crap winters in terms of snow and/or torches recently. 2007-08 sucked, I don't recall much other than a good clipper system in December; 2008-09 was meh except for the early March event; 2010-11 wasn't awful but other than Commutageddon there's not much memorable (except the fail for Boxing Day, and that's not a good kind of memorable!); 2011-12 and 2012-13 were about as bad as it could get. That's plenty of "bad" or "meh" winters in there to make up for a couple of other good ones we've had. Remember when it was all we could do to break the streak of not having a 2"+ event in DC, which went on for nearly 3 years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 CMC ensemble is still becoming more bullish for Thursday, but not as much as GEFS. GEFS has some members showing about a foot again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 That's what you were saying about this winter back in October. If anything we're due for a -NAO. I could see a 2006-07 type deal next winter if we go Niño/+QBO like we did then. Other than the fact that we had zip for -AO/NAO, this winter to me is actually very reminiscent of 2006-07 in some ways. This year is turning out snowier in the end, but both this year and 2006-07 were very back-loaded after an awful beginning, especially February. Both also had extreme cold in February. This year of course the DJF period as a whole was colder, primarily because Jan. 2007 wasn't exactly cold as I recall until late while this year had more consistent January cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2015 Author Share Posted March 1, 2015 18z NAM at the end of its run showing just what you'd expect, an over amped solution. Get rid of the NAM's typical bias of doing that, and that's one pretty map at 84 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Eps look like a 3-5" avg across the area. Eta: gfs is alone is centering the wave south. In the end my bigger fear is if the sw energy ejects more and this ends up a bit more amped it could shift north like the feb 2-3 storm last year. Best case scenario would be to get the front to clear east then get the more amped solution. Exactly. Cold doesn't trend south. My guess is the cold has a tough time making it as far as the GFS and Euro show. I certainly wouldn't want to be in the sweet spot or south on this one. And...I think the NAM just showed what you described. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 That's what you were saying about this winter back in October. If anything we're due for a -NAO. I could see a 2006-07 type deal next winter if we go Niño/+QBO like we did then. There is alot more to it than having a -NAO my friend. My prediction for this year was correct in the snow department, temps were a little off. Didn't 11-12 have a massive winter -NAO? The overall feel of the winter was bitterly cold and dry, except for the first half. When averaged together it turned out kind of 'meh'. Missing out on the Boston Blizzard sealed the deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Other than the fact that we had zip for -AO/NAO, this winter to me is actually very reminiscent of 2006-07 in some ways. This year is turning out snowier in the end, but both this year and 2006-07 were very back-loaded after an awful beginning, especially February. Both also had extreme cold in February. This year of course the DJF period as a whole was colder, primarily because Jan. 2007 wasn't exactly cold as I recall until late while this year had more consistent January cold. Agreed, evolution was similar in some respects, though this yr was more PNA/EPO driven. Snowpack is also similar this year..pretty much a glacier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 There is alot more to it than having a -NAO my friend. My prediction for this year was correct in the snow department, temps were a little off. Come on, really? You predicted (in your words) a "mediocre winter", with +temps/-snow. Didn't 11-12 have a massive winter -NAO? The overall feel of the winter was bitterly cold and dry, except for the first half. When averaged together it turned out kind of 'meh'. Eh, no? The 2011-12 winter was a door-to-door raging +AO/+NAO/+EPO.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Come on, really? You predicted (in your words) a "mediocre winter", with +temps/-snow. Eh, no? The 2011-12 winter was a door-to-door raging +AO/+NAO/+EPO.. uh, no? The +EPO overhwhelmed all others signals. Just face it man, we will torch again. Or at least go back to what cold used to be. Not sure if that is possible now tho, seems feast or famine globally. Called for average snow, everyone got there for the most part. Temps were forecasted in the 0.5-2.0+ range for all months averaged (DJF). It seemed like I was going for a torchy winter because people misinterpreted. I argued that 2013 temps would not be reachable due to warming, this is where I messed up. I failed to see that the EPO was in an unprecedented and unchangeable state and that the Eurasian side would be record warm. Haven't seen this in a long time? Regime shift? ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 There is alot more to it than having a -NAO my friend. My prediction for this year was correct in the snow department, temps were a little off. Didn't 11-12 have a massive winter -NAO? The overall feel of the winter was bitterly cold and dry, except for the first half. When averaged together it turned out kind of 'meh'. Missing out on the Boston Blizzard sealed the deal. 2011-12 was a raging torch. Not even close to bitter cold or a -NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2015 Author Share Posted March 1, 2015 Enough with the climate garbage folks. None of it has to do with current snow threats, which is the subject of this thread. Please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 2011-12 was a raging torch. Not even close to bitter cold That would be 2014-2015 my friend. December was garbage, agreed? Enough with the climate garbage folks. None of it has to do with current snow threats, which is the subject of this thread. Please. How else do you break records from 1889? It had a hand in delivering us the weather we got. We are looking back as a retrospective and explaining how this winter stacked up among recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Take this crap to another thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I have a good feeling about this one. Will probably see some crazy snowfall maps the next couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 JB comparing storm to february 1967. Anybody know what happened to with that storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Take this crap to another thread. Apologies, decent energy ejecting from the SW on the 18z GFS. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_063_500_vort_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2015 Author Share Posted March 1, 2015 Much better gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2015 Author Share Posted March 1, 2015 JB comparing storm to february 1967. Anybody know what happened to with that storm?if he ain't gonna use the Kennedy Inauguration storm, I'm not interested! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 GFS going to be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 GFS is probably snow for DC at hour 81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Happy hour returns. Gfs pleasing many winter enthusiasts. Hour 90 is sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 On this run, the HP in the midwest is about 8 MB's weaker.Possibly why the overrunning looks more juicy. Looked like about 15 hours of varying intensities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.