ers-wxman1 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Yes it is Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 If this happens it would be a heavy wet snow after a day of melting. That = a huge mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 If this happens it would be a heavy wet snow after a day of melting. That = a huge mess. PIT mentioned flooding in the hazardous weather outlook for the mountains. I am hoping against hope that it somehow is colder than forecast and they don't get massive rainfall on the Allegheny Plateau on Wed. But if it does happen, seems like that could mean a lot of liquid hitting the rivers - given that I was out there yesterday skiing waist deep powder in the trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 If this happens it would be a heavy wet snow after a day of melting. That = a huge mess. The ground will still be very cold. A day or two of warmth can't warm the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 PIT mentioned flooding in the hazardous weather outlook for the mountains. I am hoping against hope that it somehow is colder than forecast and they don't get massive rainfall on the Allegheny Plateau on Wed. But if it does happen, seems like that could mean a lot of liquid hitting the rivers - given that I was out there yesterday skiing waist deep powder in the trees. Wow that's good snow out that way. Even out here...IF this pans out for heavy snow, it would follow a day of melting then a freeze and wet snow. That could cause issues with trees, power lines as well. If it becomes a warning level event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 The ground will still be very cold. A day or two of warmth can't warm the ground Sure it can. This time of the year it can warm pretty quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2015 Author Share Posted March 1, 2015 I still think we sneak in a moderate event of 4" or more that shows up in the short term no, probably not any Miller A's, but more likely a front-end snow or wave on a front after it passes those are more typical for us in a +AN/NAO regime anyway Wed night/Thurs better work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Spring is the new winter. LOL no kidding -- March 2013 we had several inches at the end of the month; last year snows in early, mid and late month adding up to 20", and now this start to March. Yikes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Wed night/Thurs better work! It's going to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Wow that's good snow out that way. Even out here...IF this pans out for heavy snow, it would follow a day of melting then a freeze and wet snow. That could cause issues with trees, power lines as well. If it becomes a warning level event. Yeah, http://data.canaanmtnsnow.com is reporting 20 inches at his measuring point which seems about right. On north facing slopes under tree cover at 4,000 feet it's closer to 3 feet of snowpack. Here is what PIT said: LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LIKELY WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND RELATED RIVER RISE OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS... TRIBUTARIES AND SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS ARE COVERED OVER WITH ICE. A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN FLOW AND STAGE LEVELS WILL CAUSE ICE MOVEMENT STARTING TUESDAY AND WILL RAISE THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING. HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Sure it can. This time of the year it can warm pretty quick. First we gotta lose the snowpack.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2015 Author Share Posted March 1, 2015 12Z EUro spit out .21" at BWI by 7PM with another .04" overnight oooooops! .27" has fallen thru 2PM with hours more to come http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KBWI.html hope it makes the same mistake for Wed. night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 12Z EUro spit out .21" at BWI by 7PM with another .04" overnight oooooops! .27" has fallen thru 2PM with hours more to come http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KBWI.html hope it makes the same mistake for Wed. night! Euro has struggled with precip on a few events lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Sure it can. This time of the year it can warm pretty quick. No it can't...not in two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 No it can't...not in two days. We've got an early October sun angle... don't underestimate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 It's going to work.It has a good shot but the frustrating thing this year is due to the nao everything is a progressive frontal wave. No wound up coastals with scut off h5. That means the 6"+ snow area is relatively narrow with every storm. Makes it hard to feel confident in any system until it's inside 24 hours when the zone of good snow is only 50 miles wide. Any shift and your screwed. Hopefully next year we get a -nao and a few storms with a nice 150 mile wide snowfall. Less stressful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 We've got an early October sun angle... don't underestimate. The ground is frozen everywhere probably to a minimum of a foot deep, most likely more. A couple of warm days, at least one of which will likely be cloudy, has ZERO chance of undoing that. Sure, you can warm some asphalt, a little, but it takes a long time to warm the ground to the point where it can effect snowfall. And, as Ian said, you've got to melt the snow first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Yeah I've been wondering what this winter coulda been like with this amazing Pacific pattern and artic air, had we also had blocking. I hate to say this, but after back-to-back cold winters, I wonder if we are in store for a 2012-like torcher for next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 It has a good shot but the frustrating thing this year is due to the nao everything is a progressive frontal wave. No wound up coastals with scut off h5. That means the 6"+ snow area is relatively narrow with every storm. Makes it hard to feel confident in any system until it's inside 24 hours when the zone of good snow is only 50 miles wide. Any shift and your screwed. Hopefully next year we get a -nao and a few storms with a nice 150 mile wide snowfall. Less stressful. Eh, I really don't care about 6"+...give me 2 to 4 or 3 to 6 and I'm good. I like this threat for some odd reason...it is a unicorn storm, but I think we can pull through. Be curious what the EPS has for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Eh, I really don't care about 6"+...give me 2 to 4 or 3 to 6 and I'm good. I like this threat for some odd reason...it is a unicorn storm, but I think we can pull through. Be curious what the EPS has for it. Let's go for 6-8" and call it quits! 70's by the 15th. Anybody with me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeedaSnowday Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Let's go for 6-8" and call it quits! 70's by the 15th. Anybody with me? <raising hand> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Eh, I really don't care about 6"+...give me 2 to 4 or 3 to 6 and I'm good. I like this threat for some odd reason...it is a unicorn storm, but I think we can pull through. Be curious what the EPS has for it. EPS is supportive of the op. Typical spread both north and south but the majority give us a nice shot. UKIE is close to a really big hit but the midlevels lag a bit more than other guidance. Still a nice 2-4/3-6 deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2015 Author Share Posted March 1, 2015 Eh, I really don't care about 6"+...give me 2 to 4 or 3 to 6 and I'm good. I like this threat for some odd reason...it is a unicorn storm, but I think we can pull through. Be curious what the EPS has for it. Hey, I'm with you on it!And don't look now but the latest srefs have got a great look with the 0-850 line through us and a huge slug of moisture to our sw ready to come our way. Just sayin' before the inevitable poo-poos of the srefs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 EPS is supportive of the op. Typical spread both north and south but the majority give us a nice shot. UKIE is close to a really big hit but the midlevels lag a bit more than other guidance. Still a nice 2-4/3-6 deal. Sweet lets bring this baby home and then i am ready for spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Hey, I'm with you on it! And don't look now but the latest srefs have got a great look with the 0-850 line through us and a huge slug of moisture to our sw ready to come our way. Just sayin' before the inevitable poo-poos of the srefs. Yup... too bad its out in SREFs la-la land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Yeah I've been wondering what this winter coulda been like with this amazing Pacific pattern and artic air, had we also had blocking. I hate to say this, but after back-to-back cold winters, I wonder if we are in store for a 2012-like torcher for next year. I wouldn't be surprised if we had a mild winter soon, but probably not 2012 warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2015 Author Share Posted March 1, 2015 Yup... too bad its out in SREFs la-la landwhy too bad?it supports the euro, Canadian, and Ukie srefs shouldn't be trusted on their own but there's nothing wrong with considering them as additional support for the legit models imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Let's go for 6-8" and call it quits! 70's by the 15th. Anybody with me? Hey, I'm with you on it! And don't look now but the latest srefs have got a great look with the 0-850 line through us and a huge slug of moisture to our sw ready to come our way. Just sayin' before the inevitable poo-poos of the srefs. It's a go boys. I'm all in. Bob just said the EPS are in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Eh, I really don't care about 6"+...give me 2 to 4 or 3 to 6 and I'm good. I like this threat for some odd reason...it is a unicorn storm, but I think we can pull through. Be curious what the EPS has for it. I guess what frustrated me was how close this was to an epic year here only to fall short. We had a string of 2-4" dry fluff snows up here and they added up the total but even though it's been crazy cold they would sublimate and blow away before the next snow could add on. Too many weeks where it was crazy cold, got 6" but not much on the ground to show for it when it was over. Add 2" to some of those or have it be icy snow that stays till the next can add on or move the 8" I got last week to the beginning of the cold run in January and I would have a much more favorable view of this year. So close to epic but fell just short. Eta: I know I'm being picky and by no means was this a bad year just could have been great and barely missed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I guess what frustrated me was how close this was to an epic year here only to fall short. We had a string of 2-4" dry fluff snows up here and they added up the total but even though it's been crazy cold they would sublimate and blow away before the next snow could add on. Too many weeks where it was crazy cold, got 6" but not much on the ground to show for it when it was over. Add 2" to some of those or have it be icy snow that stays till the next can add on or move the 8" I got last week to the beginning of the cold run in January and I would have a much more favorable view of this year. So close to epic but fell just short. Eta: I know I'm being picky and by no means was this a bad year just could have been great and barely missed. Yes, but you've already put your chips back in for next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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