high risk Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Looking at the 3z SREF plumes, the members that have pretty much nothing for DC are all members that are initialized off of the GFS. This is completely consistent with the dry solution of the GFS run. Whatever the GFS is or isn't picking up in the initial state is influencing most of its SREF members. Maybe the GFS is right, but it's hard to ignore that most of the members initialized off of the NAM and RAP are wetter. Given that the 6z GFS seemed to be finally picking up on a north trend, it will be interesting to see if the 9z SREF mean is wetter. Edit: I see that the 9z SREF mean just came in with the 0.5" line up to DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 9z SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 What annoys me with this storm is that if it slowed down just a bit there would have been potential for it to phase with the trailing short wave. last weeks lead wave did the same thing. I don't think it's necessarily just the timing though. This year since the +nao -epo pattern set in we haven't had anything phase south of us. The stj either cuts up west of us or stays squashed south. Getting anything to bomb off the va capes seems a lost cause in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Looking at the 3z SREF plumes, the members that have pretty much nothing for DC are all members that are initialized off of the GFS. This is completely consistent with the dry solution of the GFS run. Whatever the GFS is or isn't picking up in the initial state is influencing most of its SREF members. Maybe the GFS is right, but it's hard to ignore that most of the members initialized off of the NAM and RAP are wetter. Given that the 6z GFS seemed to be finally picking up on a north trend, it will be interesting to see if the 9z SREF mean is wetter. Edit: I see that the 9z SREF mean just came in with the 0.5" line up to DC. Wow, just saw that. Significantly wetter. Will be interesting to see 12z guidance. If the SREF is right it would be a big win, if not a HUGE bust because they've been consistently snowy for the past couple days especially along the eastern shore of MD for Thursday while global models haven't been. We will see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 WOW the srefs just shifted N big time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 last weeks lead wave did the same thing. I don't think it's necessarily just the timing though. This year since the +nao -epo pattern set in we haven't had anything phase south of us. The stj either cuts up west of us or stays squashed south. Getting anything to bomb off the va capes seems a lost cause in this pattern. you just received 8-9" of snow from the cr@p pattern you are again complaining about.....I don't get it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 WOW the srefs just shifted N big time it's coming....they have ever since the clippers stopped diving south of us in early JAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 LOL is that the 0.5 line in DC? This would be so awesome if the SREFS pulled off an upset here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 LOL is that the 0.5 line in DC? This would be so awesome if the SREFS pulled off an upset here. Yes it is... I am very surprised it made that jump up once again... can't wait to see the plumes on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The SREF plumes are just absolutely ridiculous...... Means: EZF: 8.3 DCA: 7.2 BWI: 6.5 RIC: 8.9 IAD: 6.9 OKV: 6.8 All of these have extreme outliers near or above 20"......but I think the further South you go its possible 1-3 inches could fall.....not really sure where this is going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Yes it is... I am very surprised it made that jump up once again... can't wait to see the plumes on this run For DCA: Some ridiculous high totals. LOL but a mean of 7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 What is the timing looking like for this on Thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The DCA plumes are ridiculous... 7 members at 10 inches or more This will be a huge win or bust for them. Something's gotta give soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 Leesburg only wants an inch so I hope for his sake IAD is much lower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Leesburg only wants an inch so I hope for his sake IAD is much lower Shhhhh.....I'm working my asshat mojo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The SREF plumes are just absolutely ridiculous...... Means: EZF: 8.3 DCA: 7.2 BWI: 6.5 RIC: 8.9 IAD: 6.9 OKV: 6.8 All of these have extreme outliers near or above 20"......but I think the further South you go its possible 1-3 inches could fall.....not really sure where this is going. The mean is over 4 inches even up here. Hope we all cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Leesburg only wants an inch so I hope for his sake IAD is much lower Nah he can have 7" its alright. Honestly, I'm not sure I'm in on this one. I'd like to see the NAM continue to make similar moves because the other globals are not reassuring. H5 is intruiging a la Ian but I'm not gung ho on BWI even seeing an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 the reason the SREF came north is because of the phase (not phasing) of the main shortwave and the kicker. In the 9z package, they are more oriented for a phase than in any other model. The more the first shortwave slows down and/or the second one speeds up, the more the system will dig and the better chance for it to come up the coast. We need about a 12 hour difference in timing. All will be clear by 0z tonight, and if things line up, there could be major shifts in the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 DCA SREFs ARW mean: 0.95" qpf NMM mean: 0.08" qpf NMB mean: 0.58" qpf Excellent consistency Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 DCA SREFs ARW mean: 0.95" qpf NMM mean: 0.08" qpf NMB mean: 0.58" qpf Excellent consistency There's a 0 in all of them!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 DCA SREFs ARW mean: 0.95" qpf NMM mean: 0.08" qpf NMB mean: 0.58" qpf Excellent consistency Lol, crazy shift here, if real, but this thread has certainly lit up now. Lets hope globals hop on board at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Using the 60% rule, it would be about 4" for DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 you just received 8-9" of snow from the cr@p pattern you are again complaining about.....I don't get it I made a statement of fact. I'm didnt nor am I complaining about my snow. I'm happy with what I got this week. but I was pointing out that all of our snow has come from systems from the west or southwest, not up the coast. It's been hard to get coastals this year. Just not the pattern for that. I am rooting for this to break that trend of course. It could the flow isn't hostile at all for it to shift north more even. I agree with highzenburg though that had this been 24 hours slower it could have phased with the northern stream system. Then we might be discussing if it's 1 or 2 feet vs 1 or 2 inches. Also I love big storms. I'd give up all my under 4" snows to get one big one each year. Just my preference. While I got 3" last Monday night I was disapointed that lead wave amped and killed what could have been a big storm behind it. While happy with the 12" I got the last week I will always take more. I try to be very generous in most things but I'm a greedy bastard with snow. Btw weren't you in the group trying to argue winter was over a month ago and I was pointing out all the years where Baltimore went into feb with similar snow to this year then got to near or above avg. this is a crap pattern for an hecs but a good one for snow in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Collective wishcasting may be working but when only the nams and srefs are in our favor I don't get the warm and fuzzy. 0z ukie and 6z gfs look similar with getting .10 near EZF. Euro sucked. What to do with the fork should be decided shortly. I'm rooting for the euro to blow it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 itshappening.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 the reason the SREF came north is because of the phase (not phasing) of the main shortwave and the kicker. In the 9z package, they are more oriented for a phase than in any other model. The more the first shortwave slows down and/or the second one speeds up, the more the system will dig and the better chance for it to come up the coast. We need about a 12 hour difference in timing. All will be clear by 0z tonight, and if things line up, there could be major shifts in the models. agree this is what highzenburg and myself were saying earlier when it looked like they were not going to phase. I would have to see the individual runs to see how they pull it off. Are they slowing the lead wave, speeding up the northern stream, both, or perhaps leaving enough behind to pop a second low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 You can't help but think the short term models are getting the jump on the inside 48 favorable shift in our favor. #Snowtown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Models still trying to figure out a 48 hour system makes me lol at people worrying about the track of next weeks system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 LOL is that the 0.5 line in DC? This would be so awesome if the SREFS pulled off an upset here. Did we not call this the winter of miracles just yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 agree this is what highzenburg and myself were saying earlier when it looked like they were not going to phase. I would have to see the individual runs to see how they pull it off. Are they slowing the lead wave, speeding up the northern stream, both, or perhaps leaving enough behind to pop a second low.Hey man. I dunno could be short range model shenanigans. Why are the globals not picking it up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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