mdsnowlover Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Looks like maybe 9" for DC, 12" for some places on the Delmarva. Not that it really means anything at this point. I can tell you just about anytime the Euro has had huge digital snow totals at this lead time this winter, has not verified here. true good point, i don't believe snow maps i see!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 The models trended on leaving more energy in the southwest, which would kind of suck if we wanted a secondary low to form on the boundary. We'll see gfs 6z has no 2nd low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2015 Author Share Posted March 1, 2015 Accuwx snow maps show around 4" for DCA and BWI on the Euro, which corresponds to the text output I've noticed that different numbers do come out of the diff venders, so who knows, but it doesn't really matter since it's 4 days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Accuwx snow maps show around 4" for DCA and BWI on the Euro, which corresponds to the text output I've noticed that different numbers do come out of the diff venders, so who knows, but it doesn't really matter since it's 4 days away The differences are frustrating. Eurowx text output has 9.9 for dca.8.1 at bwi and 10.6 at sby. Peagle rely too much on the color maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2015 Author Share Posted March 1, 2015 The differences are frustrating. Eurowx text output has 9.9 for dca.8.1 at bwi and 10.6 at sby. Peagle rely too much on the color maps. it's a positive it's on the euro at this range and good to see it on the Canadian with the GFS sorta wavering, but close enough so you know it will be back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 judging by the snow map its more than 6in Not sure why you would use a snow map verbatim as they are usually based of off wildly optimistic ratios and other algorithms that are often flawed. Should probably use soundings and adjusting accordingly. I believe that's where Matt got his figures from, by using that method. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Not sure why you would use a snow map verbatim as they are usually based of off wildly optimistic ratios and other algorithms that are often flawed. Should probably use soundings and adjusting accordingly. I believe that's where Matt got his figures from, by using that method. Yeah, those aren't particularly helpful, especially when we're talking 4-5 days out. But they are interesting to look at all the same! At any rate, for right now I'm just glad that this potential is still hanging around, though the GFS seems to have lost it somewhat while the Euro now goes all-out (go figure!). I don't know if the GFS is in its "lose it just inside 5 days before finding it again" phase (which it sometimes does), or if it's just normal variability. I'm sure it's just normal model back-and-forth. GEFS mean (00Z and 06Z) which I took a quick peek at indicates it's still there. I was mostly looking at the period ~00Z Wednesday night through 00Z Thursday night. It's not the most common set-up for an event here, surely, and it may end up as nothing in the end. But the fact that it's been showing up for awhile keeps it in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Yeah, those aren't particularly helpful, especially when we're talking 4-5 days out. But they are interesting to look at all the same! At any rate, for right now I'm just glad that this potential is still hanging around, though the GFS seems to have lost it somewhat while the Euro now goes all-out (go figure!). I don't know if the GFS is in its "lose it just inside 5 days before finding it again" phase (which it sometimes does), or if it's just normal variability. I'm sure it's just normal model back-and-forth. GEFS mean (00Z and 06Z) which I took a quick peek at indicates it's still there. I was mostly looking at the period ~00Z Wednesday night through 00Z Thursday night. It's not the most common set-up for an event here, surely, and it may end up as nothing in the end. But the fact that it's been showing up for awhile keeps it in play. It's somewhat encouraging that the euro and ggem are going all in on it, but at the same time, but of those models have struggled a little. The GFS is actually performing well, relatively speaking, so it's a little bit of a letdown that it lost the fun and continued with the 6z run. Maybe 12z will bring it back. We just can't know yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 It's somewhat encouraging that the euro and ggem are going all in on it, but at the same time, but of those models have struggled a little. The GFS is actually performing well, relatively speaking, so it's a little bit of a letdown that it lost the fun and continued with the 6z run. Maybe 12z will bring it back. We just can't know yet. Yeah, I hear you on that...it was a let-down that the last two cycles of the GFS kind of dropped it. Somehow I knew that would happen eventually. I'm still encouraged that the ensembles seem to still have the event, at least in the mean from what I saw. As you say, the (new) GFS has actually performed well this year despite some of the bashing it's received. Even if 12Z doesn't "bring it back" or bring it back completely, it's still worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Not sure why you would use a snow map verbatim as they are usually based of off wildly optimistic ratios and other algorithms that are often flawed. Should probably use soundings and adjusting accordingly. I believe that's where Matt got his figures from, by using that method. just commenting on what the map showed, not saying its right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I thought it was supposed to be 66° on Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 judging by the snow map its more than 6in Ok. Snow maps are for losers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I thought it was supposed to be 66° on Wednesday? It is...we're going to be 70, and then we're going to get a foot of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Looks like a little snow Wed night per 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2015 Author Share Posted March 1, 2015 Looks like a little snow Wed night per 12z GFSat this point, close is good enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Ok. Snow maps are for losers. ohh so nice of you. Made a simple comment and you turn nasty wow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 at this point, close is good enough If the other models hold, then yeah...lets just hope the GFS isn't on to something....and just on something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 ohh so nice of you. Made a simple comment and you turn nasty wow!! Sorry. I was just being snarky. This happens every run of every model. I say I think a model shows 4" for DC, and someone tells me their snow map has 34". It gets annoying after a while. Not directed at you. Just in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 GFS was still fine. I thought maybe it showed nothing based on the comments. Almost within range where we can believe it a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 GGEM looks good to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Hard to tell just off of MSLP maps, but Ukmet looks like a hit. 1012 lows in west NC/SC and just off the southern Delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 GGEM looks good to meHeavy Rain to 3-6 hours of moderate snow, then 3-6 hours of Flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Heavy Rain to 3-6 hours of moderate snow, then 3-6 hours of Flurries. I'll take it. Sounds like 3/3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Next event looks marginal, rain with snow at the opening and close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Next event looks marginal, rain with snow at the opening and close. Not based on yesterdays late models. GFS starting to come around with the overrunning event. Could be winter's last gasp for us. Even though the rest of the run is cold, it's dry for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Euro is going to be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I didn't look at last night but it gives us shovelable so it's good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Euro is going to be good. wxbell running slow so bring it home. 12z GEFS looked excellent imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 wxbell running slow so bring it home. 12z GEFS looked excellent imo. snow by 6z or so.. thru maybe 18-20z most spots. good thump.. 3-6/4-8 type (prob the former actually..) it seems locally but we're well placed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I didn't look at last night but it gives us shovelable so it's good. 0z was a general 4-6" for most. Max stripe se of DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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