North Balti Zen Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Bob, what is timing on the potential event? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Bob, what is timing on the potential event? Sent from my iPhone Variable timing with the flip but sometime after midnight Wed night to early aft thurs. Assuming it happens. GFS/GEFS are kinda lasered right now. 9 out of 12 gefs members from 12z give at least some snow. Half give decent snow. Weird storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Only time I've ever seen thunder, lightning, and snow all together was in March in a setup just like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Variable timing with the flip but sometime after midnight Wed night to early aft thurs. Assuming it happens. GFS/GEFS are kinda lasered right now. 9 out of 12 gefs members from 12z give at least some snow. Half give decent snow. Weird storm. Thanks. Sorry to ask on something five days out that may not happen but having to advise on possible issues for the play and cannot get to computer to look at runs. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 Euro not so hot at 120 hrs, looks east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Euro looks decent.. best south of here. You know the rest of my thoughts lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 Euro looks decent.. best south of here. You know the rest of my thoughts lol. ahh, must come between 96 and 120 hrs around here as 120 hrs. it is definitely east as I posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 ahh, must come between 96 and 120 hrs around here as 120 hrs. it is definitely east as I posted it actually looks better than last night to me.. not a perfect hit for us but more in line with the gfs. last night was mostly focused NW with anything good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxw Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I'm with you on this Tenman - it's a pretty deep moist package Think before you speak and read the discussions today that have followed my comments from last night. It's part of maintaining a truce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 it actually looks better than last night to me.. not a perfect hit for us but more in line with the gfs. last night was mostly focused NW with anything good. We don't need to be in the perfect spot. Im following the weenie rules. S and E is good at this stage! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 it actually looks better than last night to me.. not a perfect hit for us but more in line with the gfs. last night was mostly focused NW with anything good. idk, the last 2 weeks have been magical for us everything has trended in our favor at this point in the season, I don't think we lose that, rather, it just goes into a spring pattern and then we're done so I agree with you on the one hand that we don't usually do well with these types of setups, but the pattern just keeps proving itself, so I ain't bettin' against it and just gunna' figure it's going to snow moderately Wed night/Thurs morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 We don't need to be in the perfect spot. Im following the weenie rules. S and E is good at this stage! Maybe except in this case it's probably most likely to fall apart and shift southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 idk, the last 2 weeks have been magical for us everything has trended in our favor at this point in the season, I don't think we lose that, rather, it just goes into a spring pattern and then we're done so I agree with you on the one hand that we don't usually do well with these types of setups, but the pattern just keeps proving itself, so I ain't bettin' against it and just gunna' figure it's going to snow moderately Wed night/Thurs morning Science! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 That was in and out very quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 We don't need to be in the perfect spot. Im following the weenie rules. S and E is good at this stage! yeah, I think I recall somebody once talking about a "north trend" can somebody explain that to me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 Science! yep, the same science that got Boston nearly 100" in a month.....the science of weather pattern repetition ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 yep, the same science that got Boston nearly 100" in a month.....the science of weather pattern repetition !I'd like to believe but we just can't know yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 I'd like to believe but we just can't know yet. I don't wear the handcuffs of being a CWG forecaster......oh, the freedom! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 the north trend is a myth...there has been a south trend lately and this isnt the kind of storm that you can rely on a north trend. Getting really tired being south of all the good moisture lately. The euro is horribly dry for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxw Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Finally a voice of reason the north trend is a myth...there has been a south trend lately and this isnt the kind of storm that you can rely on a north trend. Getting really tired being south of all the good moisture lately. The euro is horribly dry for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 the north trend is a myth...there has been a south trend lately and this isnt the kind of storm that you can rely on a north trend. Getting really tired being south of all the good moisture lately. The euro is horribly dry for our area I've got $20 that says that the stripe of heaviest snow shown by the Euro will be well north of that, if it even exists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 the north trend is a myth...there has been a south trend lately and this isnt the kind of storm that you can rely on a north trend. Getting really tired being south of all the good moisture lately. The euro is horribly dry for our area Yeah, I think the seasonal trend thing is nonsense. Different boundary conditions w/ every storm, obviously the modeling will handle them differently. The Jan clipper and WAA storm both trended SE as we closed in..last coastal trended NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Wow 12z GFS, ana gasm OK, if (big IF!) this event actually happens and we get a decent snow out of it, and assuming we ever even start a thread, I nominate "ana-gasm storm" for the name! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 Yeah, I think the seasonal trend thing is nonsense. Different boundary conditions w/ every storm, obviously the modeling will handle them differently. The Jan clipper and WAA storm both trended SE as we closed in..last coastal trended NW. then you're not a very good student of climatology my friend if you go back you will see that just about every event we've had of consequence in the last 2 weeks was first modeled to our south, and every event that hit Boston was first modeled to hit us hard JI is a whiner and gets more jollies off computer runs than falling snow....fine, if that's what he wants to do, but to deny historical fact that can easily be researched on this Board is absurd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Well SOC has a point there. Given you are starting to get into March, the wavelengths favor more digging and less progressive cold air ripping thru every time. This one hints of a historic late winter snow-bomb, for someone. and more importantly, the bar is not very high for southern areas in early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 then you're not a very good student of climatology my friend if you go back you will see that just about every event we've had of consequence in the last 2 weeks was first modeled to our south, and every event that hit Boston was first modeled to hit us hard JI is a whiner and gets more jollies off computer runs than falling snow....fine, if that's what he wants to do, but to deny historical fact that can easily be researched on this Board is absurd Huh???Here is how I remember the last few threats of the last two weeks. Super front threat feb 14: the miller b ended up about where it was forecasted from 5 days out. The weird inverted trough feature actually trended way south and ended up over nj vs nyc and ct. So did the best lift with the front. Verdict no north trend. Perhaps south trend with trough feature The feb 17 storm was well north and looked like several waves going north of us from 120 hours out. Then it shifted way south as models resolved the two wave idea before coming back north around 48 hours out only to adjust south about 50 miles at the end. Verdict: all over but definitely not an overall north trend as storm ended up way south of where it was from a week out. Feb 21. Started as a low cutting way north I still have an image from 5 days out showing rain to buffalo with that. We were supposed to be 50 and rain. It trended way south as models weakened the low. Feb 26. From 5 days out gfs and euro had a few runs that were a nice hit up the coast. Even a few that changed us to rain. Then around day 3-4 they shifted way south only to come back north some the last 48 hours. Verdict still ended south of the consensus 5 days out. March 1. Not over yet but it's definitely been trending south the last 24 hours. Is my memory going bad because that's honestly how I remember each event and from that I can't see how you can argue there has been an overall north trend in this pattern. I kind of side with ji here. The last few times I've needed the mythical north trend Iys let me down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 CMC ensembles are starting to come around on this one. About 40% of members now showing some snow. GEFS have backed off a bit. About 60% of members show snow, but the members showing one foot are gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 then you're not a very good student of climatology my friend if you go back you will see that just about every event we've had of consequence in the last 2 weeks was first modeled to our south, and every event that hit Boston was first modeled to hit us hard JI is a whiner and gets more jollies off computer runs than falling snow....fine, if that's what he wants to do, but to deny historical fact that can easily be researched on this Board is absurd I think your memory is a bit wonky, my friend. I can count at least three events this winter that trended south, within what we might call the believable range. If you're talking about trends out beyond 5 days, that's something else. I don't look at that stuff much.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Huh??? Here is how I remember the last few threats of the last two weeks. Super front threat feb 14: the miller b ended up about where it was forecasted from 5 days out. The weird inverted trough feature actually trended way south and ended up over nj vs nyc and ct. So did the best lift with the front. Verdict no north trend. Perhaps south trend with trough feature The feb 17 storm was well north and looked like several waves going north of us from 120 hours out. Then it shifted way south as models resolved the two wave idea before coming back north around 48 hours out only to adjust south about 50 miles at the end. Verdict: all over but definitely not an overall north trend as storm ended up way south of where it was from a week out. Feb 21. Started as a low cutting way north I still have an image from 5 days out showing rain to buffalo with that. We were supposed to be 50 and rain. It trended way south as models weakened the low. Feb 26. From 5 days out gfs and euro had a few runs that were a nice hit up the coast. Even a few that changed us to rain. Then around day 3-4 they shifted way south only to come back north some the last 48 hours. Verdict still ended south of the consensus 5 days out. March 1. Not over yet but it's definitely been trending south the last 24 hours. Is my memory going bad because that's honestly how I remember each event and from that I can't see how you can argue there has been an overall north trend in this pattern. I kind of side with ji here. The last few times I've needed the mythical north trend Iys let me down. Actually, I think you pretty well summarize it here, psuhoffman. I don't recall all the details but there certainly has not been one or another "seasonal" trend. Events this month have gone both ways as you delineate here. In particular, last Saturday's event most definitely trended south and weaker, as a result of the very entrenched cold air. It essentially turned into an overrunning situation as the surface and mid-levels gradually warmed. So we got a lot more snow than we would have normally in such a set-up. (ETA: While it was back in early January, the over-performing clipper at that time actually trended south, I believe.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.