gymengineer Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Some recent post-cold front accumulating snows: 3/8/95, 11/11/95, 3/8/96, 3/3/99, 4/9/00, 3/8/05, 3/16/07, 2/22/11. Some were dynamic rain to snow transitions in heavy precip. The best one of the bunch for the cities was 3/8-9/96-- lows along the front ended with the last low dropping a 3-6" stripe right along I-95 that accumulated on road surfaces overnight. The precip stopped for many hours between the rain and the snow, and it was a last minute forecast adjustment just a few hours before the snow started that included any accumulating snow. It was a wonderful positive bust that capped off an amazing season for DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Some recent post-cold front accumulating snows: 3/8/95, 11/11/95, 3/8/96, 3/3/99, 4/9/00, 3/8/05, 3/16/07, 2/22/11. Some were dynamic rain to snow transitions in heavy precip. The best one of the bunch for the cities was 3/8-9/96-- lows along the front ended with the last low dropping a 3-6" stripe right along I-95 that accumulated on road surfaces overnight. The precip stopped for many hours between the rain and the snow, and it was a last minute forecast adjustment just a few hours before the snow started that included any accumulating snow. It was a wonderful positive bust that capped off an amazing season for DCA. lotsa weak enso seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 lotsa weak enso seasons. ...and a large majority were March/April events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 The only thing I'm seeing is a March 5th storm, anything beyond 10 days, nada.. or am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Six days away is a long ways out, but it's hard to ignore something that the GFS, Euro, GGEM, and EPS all support. Looking closer at the GEFS, there's more support there than I initially thought. Does anyone know what the Ukie says? CMC ensemble is not really biting, but it will be interesting to see what it does tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Ukie was warm and wet through 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 If you want to believe the nam, it's fairly icy on Sunday. Brief snow to ip then zr rain most of the afternoon. Prob a non event for paved surfaces due to time of day but it would be a messy day in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 If you want to believe the nam, it's fairly icy on Sunday. Brief snow to ip then zr rain most of the afternoon. Prob a non event for paved surfaces due to time of day but it would be a messy day in general. Would you be shocked if both Sunday and mid week trend colder? I know I wouldn't be. It's just a casual observation, but it seems at long range the models are placing high pressure too far south off the east coast. Seems like they end up much further north than first forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Only this winter, there would be a potential ice storm in March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Topper showing maps of model runs with 0.1" ice in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Pretty dead in here for a potentially interesting time on Sunday, especially if the NAM is correct. GFS is not so enthusiastic, however. As for late next week, I'm not really sold on the post-frontal wave giving us much of anything, but it's shown up several times in various solutions. So something to keep an interested eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I'm still banking on the analfront Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Topper showing maps of model runs with 0.1" ice in DC. Topper apparently doesn't know March climo for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Gulf moisture moving in from southern TX. Look at the NH water vapor. Steady stream from west of Hawaii all the way to south of Iceland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Gulf moisture moving in from southern TX. Look at the NH water vapor. Steady stream from west of Hawaii all the way to south of Iceland. lol...I love how you just pull things out of your ass just to make it want to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Gotta love Teninch. The dude just wont quit man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I like the analfront, should be interesting Ice on Sunday followed by steady rain. I do need to get the gunk washed off of my car Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 EURO is colder for Sunday but not as cold as the NAM. North of the Potomac is the dividing line for ice which is much closer than 12z. Still has some midweek snow but seems the cold doesn't really catch the precip. Kentucky and Ohio get hammered. East of the Apps don't. Mountains seem to slow the cold push. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I am really pumped over all the freezing weather I get to enjoy, then plenty of RAIN later Sunday I have a feeling this is going to be a SOAKER Although we will go into Sunday with frigid weather, I believe all the precip will hold off til Sunday evening when we will be 40 degrees then fall harmlessly as regular, non freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 EURO is colder for Sunday but not as cold as the NAM. North of the Potomac is the dividing line for ice which is much closer than 12z. Still has some midweek snow but seems the cold doesn't really catch the precip. Kentucky and Ohio get hammered. East of the Apps don't. Mountains seem to slow the cold push. euro total snowfall for thursday comes to 4-6 in i don't know about you, but for early march that's pretty good, its wswarning criterion, good enough for me!! and if it doesn't happen that life and weather!! peace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Time for a Sunday storm thread? Nam looks like a significant ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 The snowy GEFS member from yesterday's 12z run picked up some friends in the 00z run. CMC ensemble still not biting. GGEM op run now doesn't show any frozen on Thursday for DC. 00z RGEM ensemble supports the idea of some freezing rain in DC tomorrow, with a reduced chance of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 The snowy GEFS member from yesterday's 12z run picked up some friends in the 00z run. CMC ensemble still not biting. GGEM op run now doesn't show any frozen on Thursday for DC. 00z RGEM ensemble supports the idea of some freezing rain in DC tomorrow, with a reduced chance of snow. 0z Euro ens is about the same as 12z with half the members showing snowfall. 6z gefs is the most bullish I've seen so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 0z Euro ens is about the same as 12z with half the members showing snowfall. 6z gefs is the most bullish I've seen so far . Looks like interesting times ahead? Would love to score another region wide WSW event. Spring will be here soon enough. Let's keep this winter train rolling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 This ana front business might be for real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 NAM is insistent that we start as a decent period of snow tomorrow. 850's still south of dc @ 1pm but thicknesses show a change to what I assume is sleet from the potomac and south before then. It's definitely the coldest at the surface. RGEM looks quite different. Basically a non event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 NAM is insistent that we start as a decent period of snow tomorrow. 850's still south of dc @ 1pm but thicknesses show a change to what I assume is sleet from the potomac and south before then. It's definitely the coldest at the surface. RGEM looks quite different. Basically a non event. Tomorrow storm: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45893-potential-icewintery-mix-event-229/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 NAM is insistent that we start as a decent period of snow tomorrow. 850's still south of dc @ 1pm but thicknesses show a change to what I assume is sleet from the potomac and south before then. It's definitely the coldest at the surface. RGEM looks quite different. Basically a non event. 12z rgem will probably be colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Then NAM tries to give a little front end loving on Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Then NAM tries to give a little front end loving on Tuesdaythat's been in the modeling for a week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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