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March Threats/Snow Storms Pt. II


mitchnick

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Some recent post-cold front accumulating snows:

3/8/95, 11/11/95, 3/8/96, 3/3/99, 4/9/00, 3/8/05, 3/16/07, 2/22/11. Some were dynamic rain to snow transitions in heavy precip. The best one of the bunch for the cities was 3/8-9/96-- lows along the front ended with the last low dropping a 3-6" stripe right along I-95 that accumulated on road surfaces overnight. The precip stopped for many hours between the rain and the snow, and it was a last minute forecast adjustment just a few hours before the snow started that included any accumulating snow. It was a wonderful positive bust that capped off an amazing season for DCA.

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Some recent post-cold front accumulating snows:

3/8/95, 11/11/95, 3/8/96, 3/3/99, 4/9/00, 3/8/05, 3/16/07, 2/22/11. Some were dynamic rain to snow transitions in heavy precip. The best one of the bunch for the cities was 3/8-9/96-- lows along the front ended with the last low dropping a 3-6" stripe right along I-95 that accumulated on road surfaces overnight. The precip stopped for many hours between the rain and the snow, and it was a last minute forecast adjustment just a few hours before the snow started that included any accumulating snow. It was a wonderful positive bust that capped off an amazing season for DCA.

lotsa weak enso seasons.

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Six days away is a long ways out, but it's hard to ignore something that the GFS, Euro, GGEM, and EPS all support.  Looking closer at the GEFS, there's more support there than I initially thought.  Does anyone know what the Ukie says?  CMC ensemble is not really biting, but it will be interesting to see what it does tonight.

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If you want to believe the nam, it's fairly icy on Sunday. Brief snow to ip then zr rain most of the afternoon. Prob a non event for paved surfaces due to time of day but it would be a messy day in general.

Would you be shocked if both Sunday and mid week trend colder? I know I wouldn't be. It's just a casual observation, but it seems at long range the models are placing high pressure too far south off the east coast. Seems like they end up much further north than first forecast.

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Pretty dead in here for a potentially interesting time on Sunday, especially if the NAM is correct.  GFS is not so enthusiastic, however.  As for late next week, I'm not really sold on the post-frontal wave giving us much of anything, but it's shown up several times in various solutions.  So something to keep an interested eye on.

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I am really pumped over all the freezing weather I get to enjoy, then plenty of RAIN later Sunday  :axe:

I have a feeling this is going to be a SOAKER

Although we will go into Sunday with frigid weather, I believe all the precip will hold off til Sunday evening when we will be 40 degrees then fall harmlessly as regular, non freezing rain.

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EURO is colder for Sunday but not as cold as the NAM. North of the Potomac is the dividing line for ice which is much closer than 12z.

Still has some midweek snow but seems the cold doesn't really catch the precip. Kentucky and Ohio get hammered. East of the Apps don't. Mountains seem to slow the cold push.

euro total snowfall for thursday comes to 4-6 in i don't know about you, but for early march that's pretty good, its wswarning criterion, good enough for me!! and if it doesn't happen that life and weather!! peace

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The snowy GEFS member from yesterday's 12z run picked up some friends in the 00z run.

 

UN0fGPR.png

 

CMC ensemble still not biting.  GGEM op run now doesn't show any frozen on Thursday for DC.

 

00z RGEM ensemble supports the idea of some freezing rain in DC tomorrow, with a reduced chance of snow.

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The snowy GEFS member from yesterday's 12z run picked up some friends in the 00z run.

 

 

 

CMC ensemble still not biting.  GGEM op run now doesn't show any frozen on Thursday for DC.

 

00z RGEM ensemble supports the idea of some freezing rain in DC tomorrow, with a reduced chance of snow.

 

0z Euro ens is about the same as 12z with half the members showing snowfall. 

 

6z gefs is the most bullish I've seen so far

 

f126.gif

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0z Euro ens is about the same as 12z with half the members showing snowfall.

6z gefs is the most bullish I've seen so far

f126.gif

.

Looks like interesting times ahead? Would love to score another region wide WSW event. Spring will be here soon enough. Let's keep this winter train rolling!

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NAM is insistent that we start as a decent period of snow tomorrow. 850's still south of dc @ 1pm but thicknesses show a change to what I assume is sleet from the potomac and south before then. It's definitely the coldest at the surface. RGEM looks quite different. Basically a non event. 

Tomorrow storm:  http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45893-potential-icewintery-mix-event-229/

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NAM is insistent that we start as a decent period of snow tomorrow. 850's still south of dc @ 1pm but thicknesses show a change to what I assume is sleet from the potomac and south before then. It's definitely the coldest at the surface. RGEM looks quite different. Basically a non event.

12z rgem will probably be colder

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