mitchnick Posted February 27, 2015 Author Share Posted February 27, 2015 Cold has proved resilient since late DEC so I would expect we have accumulating snow next week, which coincidentally supports my post yesterday or the day before when I said that I believe we'll see at least one for moderate event (4"+), so imagine that. Lol After next week, let it get warm if it wants, I don't care at that point. But if it doesn't, I'm OK with that too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Not in a rush for warm. It's warm 8 months a year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Cold front clearing fast on the 18z GFS, with some decent energy lagging behind...we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 27, 2015 Author Share Posted February 27, 2015 Not in a rush for warm. It's warm 8 months a year if we're lucky! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Nice hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 So we go from 70s to 10-12" of snow in S MD/ DE in 24 hours lol yeaaa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 So we go from 70s to 10-12" of snow in S MD/ DE in 24 hours lol yeaaa IT CAN HAPPEN.. but probably not! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Cold front clearing fast on the 18z GFS, with some decent energy lagging behind...we'll see Not as fast as it did at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 18z GFS is legit WSW Criteria Snow Thursday Morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Looks like GFS is 1-2" for N MD Sunday/Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Looks like GFS is 1-2" for N MD Sunday/Monday.I see less than a Centimeter of Snow (Instantweathermaps) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Fringed. Calling leesburg 04 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 No doubt. We've seen many cold chasing precip looks at medium to long leads. I'm not sure I remember any working out. Maybe that rain to snow deal last year was one. I'm a little foggy on how it played out though. Prob not apples to apples. Matt would know.I'd imagine we get rain to snow in some fashion behind a front maybe once a year or two but anything big is unusual. Then again we've gotten decent snow in a lot of atypical ways since last winter. Nonetheless what the models show now is fairly meaningless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Fringed. Calling leesburg 04 Right where we want it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I see less than a Centimeter of Snow (Instantweathermaps) I can't see 3-hour panels on WxBell. But you're right, it looks like .5", 1" max. Decent icing at 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 27, 2015 Author Share Posted February 27, 2015 anyone notice how "not very warm" the GFS is before the changeover to snow? looked like near 60 in a prior run or 2 and now upper 40's to around 50, at least based upon the 3 hr. increments on the ncep site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KDCA/2005/3/8/DailyHistory.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I can't see 3-hour panels on WxBell. But you're right, it looks like .5", 1" max. Decent icing at 54.Yeah, the period where we get the bulk of precip (hr 54-57), 850mb temps are above freezing. Could be looking at a token Freezing Rain Advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I'd imagine we get rain to snow in some fashion behind a front maybe once a year or two but anything big is unusual. Then again we've gotten decent snow in a lot of atypical ways since last winter. Nonetheless what the models show now is fairly meaningless. It's an interesting h5 look at least. I could see something riding the boundary after the column gets right but it's always tuff time buying into this kind of scenario beyond 3 days. Too much has to go right. We simply cannot know right now. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Not in a rush for warm. It's warm 8 months a year ^^this^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Yes. I could see a couple of inches from that. Obviously it depends on timing of the vort riding the boundary. But when doesnt it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Here's the euro ens dca meteogram. It shows fairly decent support for the event. Skeptical and low expectations is the way to go right now but it seems to be gaining some support at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KDCA/2005/3/8/DailyHistory.html Matt, did you get that map at that address? I'm on the phone, so maybe that's why I can't find it. Can you post the weather channel map from 3/8/95, around noon? I don't know if you can but would like to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 18z GFS is legit WSW Criteria Snow Thursday Morning That would be a great way to end winter. Hope it holds firm. Sure it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Ensembles are all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Ensembles are all over the place. All clear? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 All clear? You have to wait until 2:00am for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 It's an interesting h5 look at least. I could see something riding the boundary after the column gets right but it's always tuff time buying into this kind of scenario beyond 3 days. Too much has to go right. We simply cannot know right now. lol Yes, we just can't know yet. If nothing else it's still fairly up in the air what happens with the original low. The seasonal thing argues flatter I suppose.. but how that impacts the rest (if it's even real).. got me. Ops 'agreeing' means very little in this situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Matt, did you get that map at that address? I'm on the phone, so maybe that's why I can't find it. Can you post the weather channel map from 3/8/95, around noon? I don't know if you can but would like to see it. From here (NJ focused doesn't have all our events): http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Yes, we just can't know yet. If nothing else it's still fairly up in the air what happens with the original low. The seasonal thing argues flatter I suppose.. but how that impacts the rest (if it's even real).. got me. Ops 'agreeing' means very little in this situation. I expect it to go poof tbh. Or end up being some sort of mangled flakes before the clouds clear out and winds kick up. But since there is absolutely nothing else to track...we'll all watch it morph into something other than what the gfs just showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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