clueless Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Although NWS is showing mixy events in the next 7 days, every day is showing above freezing every day. When did we last have a stretch of 7 days above freezing for highs? Maybe it is more recent than I remember.. but seems like we have had a great BN streak! Yes. Def looks like it would be hard to get anything other than slop. But we have a ways to go and all our storms pretty much come down to the wire this year. We can always eek out a bit more frozen in these parts. But now I am sorta rooting for sixties if all we can look forward to are scrapes while 40N sees good frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 We might be toast.. DC doesn't do well in March. We've been tricked by the last few years. eta: also wishcasting spring now. Looks bumpy with no optimal snow pattern. Actually some possible warmth showing in 12 days or so. In skeptical of that but would enjoy it if it happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Looks bumpy with no optimal snow pattern. Actually some possible warmth showing in 12 days or so. In skeptical of that but would enjoy it if it happens Pattern does seem to look more spring like by day 10 or so.. cold retreat north and growing warmth over the country. Highly doubtful it will be a clean transition of course.. but this current set of cold shots alone has wimpified in closing and there's no sign of big cold after anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Looks bumpy with no optimal snow pattern. Actually some possible warmth showing in 12 days or so. In skeptical of that but would enjoy it if it happens HM tweeted more snow for eastern us march 6-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 12z GFS looks semi-interesting, cold front clearing with a lot of energy behind, kind of like the 00z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Meh the trail energy kind of got sheared, but it would be one way to sneak an event in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Meh the trail energy kind of got sheared, but it would be one way to sneak an event in there Actually still ends up decent DC and south.. but that would be one way we rarely sneak an event in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 GFS has a storm going on the 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Actually still ends up decent DC and south.. but that would be one way we rarely sneak an event in here. When was the last anafrontal type event? I can't remember. Models love spitting them out at longer leads but rarely verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 EURO is out for any frozen on Sunday/Monday. WAA stays north of the Mason Dixon during the day so we stay mostly dry. By the time precip does get in here temps are upper 30's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Euro has 2" for DC on Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Euro has 2" for DC on Thursday Anafrontal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Less phase on models today for midweek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Anafrontal? Mostly. Looks like weak impulses riding the boundary as it presses. I don't buy into cold chasing precip too often but it's a fairly good look on the gfs/euro if we are going to pull off another lucky event. Matt, looks like more than .20 would fall as snow. Changeover happens right @ hr 144 or so. 150-156 both drop more precip. Looks like close to 4" for dca. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Bob-For Sunday. What mass of precip are we following? Is it what is in OK/TX right now or is it something west of that? The mass in TX/OK will not be able to cut to our west because this time the high to the north is moving eastward in tandem with it rather than lagging behind. If it is something to west of current TX/OK mass then by then cold high would be off the coast and it's not another miracle worker like last coastal high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Bob-For Sunday. What mass of precip are we following? Is it what is in OK/TX right now or is it something west of that? The mass in TX/OK will not be able to cut to our west because this time the high to the north is moving eastward in tandem with it rather than lagging behind. If it is something to west of current TX/OK mass then by then cold high would be off the coast and it's not another miracle worker like last coastal high. It's simple return flow overrunning up from tx/ok that spreads eastward through the midwest. The bulk goes north in pa-new england. HP placement to our south and east is pretty bad for us to expect much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Euro has a storm on the 5th into the 6th showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 It's simple return flow overrunning up from tx/ok that spreads eastward through the midwest. The bulk goes north in pa-new england. HP placement to our south and east is pretty bad for us to expect much. Thanks. I do not think the high pressure will set up like that and since it is the OK/TX current precip we are talking about I think Sunday will be snowier in DC than the models and discussion are currently showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Bob-For Sunday. What mass of precip are we following? Is it what is in OK/TX right now or is it something west of that? The mass in TX/OK will not be able to cut to our west because this time the high to the north is moving eastward in tandem with it rather than lagging behind. If it is something to west of current TX/OK mass then by then cold high would be off the coast and it's not another miracle worker like last coastal high. These anafrontal masses tend to lag behind, but eventually work their way out across the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 It's not really the mass over TX.. if anything it's stuff that develops tomorrow over the southern plains. We'll go into it relatively cold which is probably the main bonus but at this range it seems unlikely to turn into much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 A certain met just gave the all clear for the next two weeks....not sure what you jokers are looking at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 A certain met just gave the all clear for the next two weeks....not sure what you jokers are looking at i Dont know what to Think about that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Euro ens have a cluster of support for front end stuff late tues into early wed but my money is on more wet than frozen. Better support for the anafrontal scenario thurs/fri than I expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 A certain met just gave the all clear for the next two weeks....not sure what you jokers are looking at DT or HM SAID 3/6-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 i had to actually google anafront, because i thought it was a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 GGEM op run gives about 0.4" qpf of snow from the cold front on Thursday. Not a lot of support in the 12z CMC ensemble or GEFS, although more so than the 00z runs. One of the GEFS members gives DC over a foot of snow on Thursday. RGEM ensembles have good support for a little snow on Sunday, with a couple members showing a few inches for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Even if Thurs has some support its way too far off to get too into a setup like that. If it's still there Monday lets talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joeride Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 DT or HM SAID 3/6-12 DT said fairly quite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 A certain met just gave the all clear for the next two weeks....not sure what you jokers are looking at Don't know who you're referring to, but I remember a met sounding the all clear back in early January right before the bottom fell out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Even if Thurs has some support its way too far off to get too into a setup like that. If it's still there Monday lets talk. No doubt. We've seen many cold chasing precip looks at medium to long leads. I'm not sure I remember any working out. Maybe that rain to snow deal last year was one. I'm a little foggy on how it played out though. Prob not apples to apples. Matt would know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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