aldie 22 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 For a triple, yes I will... I only quoted you so I have evidence...if it happens I get naming rights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I have a coating on the sidewalks and car tops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Looks like our next window beyond whatever happens Sunday is March 6-12. Love to be ushered into Spring with a KU. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 3-6" in central pa. State college. It worked for some. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Ginxy up in the NE forum thinks we could have a triple phaser. Wouldn't THAT be a BLAST?!!! I wonder if we FINALLY get to have a Block? Jeb, Ginxy was basing that on the possibility of getting a +pna in tandem with a -nao. While it's possible, until we actually have a decent -nao prog inside of 7 days we shouldn't get our hopes up for anything. As has happened all year, the -nao look that was showing up around march 9th or so is getting pushed back in time. This could easily be a year of no blocking from door to door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Jeb, Ginxy was basing that on the possibility of getting a +pna in tandem with a -nao. While it's possible, until we actually have a decent -nao prog inside of 7 days we shouldn't get our hopes up for anything. As has happened all year, the -nao look that was showing up around march 9th or so is getting pushed back in time. This could easily be a year of no blocking from door to door. what NAO are we talking about? Am i missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 The "triple phaser" is the biggest joke in weather forecasting. Some people are way too obsessed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 what NAO are we talking about? Am i missing something? Exactly. And until that changes, the fabled march snow bomb ain't happening. At least not at our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Exactly. And until that changes, the fabled march snow bomb ain't happening. At least not at our latitude. were not gettting Greenland blocking this winter. If it comes, it will likely be too late to give us anything. To me, we are still in the same pattern that requires luck to get cold and precip to come together. It worked out in Feb...maybe it will work out once in March. I noticed the globals are going nuts for El Nino next year....so maybe blocking can work out next winter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 were not gettting Greenland blocking this winter. If it comes, it will likely be too late to give us anything. To me, we are still in the same pattern that requires luck to get cold and precip to come together. It worked out in Feb...maybe it will work out once in March. I noticed the globals are going nuts for El Nino next year....so maybe blocking can work out next winter lol I feel bad for HM and Cohen. HM has been trying to predict NAO all winter just like Cohen has tried to predict -AO all winter. We got lucky and unlucky in alot of ways. Lucky to have had decent snow with no blocking but unlucky to not have gotten more snow with so much cold air from January forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I imagine those who predicted a harsh snowy winter boosted by a long term -NAO will be applauded and the -NAO part of the forecast will be mostly forgotten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Just about too late for -NAO to do a whole lot of good. Hopefully it stays positive until Nov/Dec and maybe we finally time a nino w/ some blocking again and start off next winter with a KU. I want one more timed event to get me to, or just over, climo. Nothing is worse than seeing a big march snow only to have it vaporize in the sun the following day. It's a waste of precious flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 what NAO are we talking about? Am i missing something? what NAO are we talking about? Am i missing something? Can someone please explain this map to me and tell me what it needs to look like to show a negative NAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 And PG is making good bets now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I feel bad for HM and Cohen. HM has been trying to predict NAO all winter just like Cohen has tried to predict -AO all winter. We got lucky and unlucky in alot of ways. Lucky to have had decent snow with no blocking but unlucky to not have gotten more snow with so much cold air from January forward. I don't think we got unlucky at all this year. We got saved by the pac. To have a decent # of all snow events is remarkable. This year and last year will go down as flukes in the lucky dept. The mega +ao in Jan was a dagger. I became extremely skeptical at a flip. Especially towards mid/late month. The AO can be a persistent beast. It showed its hand early too. Cohen had no choice but to hold serve. What he published in his weekly updates and what his real thoughts were are probably 2 different things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Can someone please explain this map to me and tell me what it needs to look like to show a negative NAO?On that map you want oranges where the blue circle is or over Greenland area really. And maybe a blue down by Newfoundland. General idea.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Can someone please explain this map to me and tell me what it needs to look like to show a negative NAO? Red over Greenland instead of blue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Can someone please explain this map to me and tell me what it needs to look like to show a negative NAO? Basically just flip the colors. We want high heights plastered all over the pole/greenland/davis straight. Dec 2010 was the last real -ao/nao combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 We might be toast.. DC doesn't do well in March. We've been tricked by the last few years. eta: also wishcasting spring now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Basically just flip the colors. We want high heights plastered all over the pole/greenland/davis straight. Dec 2010 was the last real -ao/nao combo. dec2010.JPG Thank you Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 27, 2015 Author Share Posted February 27, 2015 I still think we sneak in a moderate event of 4" or more that shows up in the short term no, probably not any Miller A's, but more likely a front-end snow or wave on a front after it passes those are more typical for us in a +AN/NAO regime anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 That's one heck of a Sunday mess on the 12z NAM - over 0.5" of liquid at DCA - sleet going quickly to freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 That's one heck of a Sunday mess on the 12z NAM - over 0.5" of liquid at DCA - sleet going quickly to freezing rain.Only a 6 hour event Verbatim. Could be a nuisance & it depends if we can keep temps down Sunday, could very we'll be 36-38 Sunday Afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 27, 2015 Author Share Posted February 27, 2015 That's one heck of a Sunday mess on the 12z NAM - over 0.5" of liquid at DCA - sleet going quickly to freezing rain. I just saw that.....BWI looks to get maybe an inch of snow before changing to sleet then zr I'm just hoping we can get more sleet than zr; there has been a trend to cool things down as the period approaches so maybe we can keep getting colder to increase the sleet portion ....all of this with the assumption the NAM is correct, which is probably not smart, I know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 That's one heck of a Sunday mess on the 12z NAM - over 0.5" of liquid at DCA - sleet going quickly to freezing rain. Sleet bomb for jyo? Sorry...on phone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 27, 2015 Author Share Posted February 27, 2015 12z RGEM suggests a decent (?) period of snow on Sunday before any changeover, though the time for the changeover is beyond the model's range at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 probably still an IP to ZR transition there too. but it's worth noting that the NAM nest has considerably less precip for everyone than the parent NAM Sleet bomb for jyo? Sorry...on phone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 27, 2015 Author Share Posted February 27, 2015 probably still an IP to ZR transition there too. but it's worth noting that the NAM nest has considerably less precip for everyone than the parent NAM children smarter than Dad? oh Nooz! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Although NWS is showing mixy events in the next 7 days, every day is showing above freezing every day. When did we last have a stretch of 7 days above freezing for highs? Maybe it is more recent than I remember.. but seems like we have had a great BN streak! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Can someone please explain this map to me and tell me what it needs to look like to show a negative NAO? Here's a helpful site: http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/NAO.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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