Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Euro weeklies show no extended warmth through the entire month of march and look cold relative to normal for the last week of the month. Door to door -epo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 27, 2015 Author Share Posted February 27, 2015 I was out this evening walking around and had a big-time deja vu of late 2/10 when the sunlight was the same and snow depth was similar having dropped from the monster peak of around 36" on 2/11/10. Very strange. I can't get enough snow, at least not living here. Maybe if I was in Boston this year I'd feel different, but I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 The vast majority of our DCA-era March's with a decent snowstorm had at least one other somewhat widespread measurable event at some other date during the month (either before or after), even if that other event is a snow-to-rain or rain-to-snow situation. In other words, if we have conditions favorable for snow that late in the season, it's usually not a one threat period: 3/56, 3/58, 3/60, 3/64, 3/65, 3/69, 3/78, 3/80, 3/84, 3/90, 3/93, 3/94, 3/96, 3/99, 3/13, 3/14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 27, 2015 Author Share Posted February 27, 2015 Euro weeklies show no extended warmth through the entire month of march and look cold relative to normal for the last week of the month. Door to door -epo Thanks Bob. I know this will border on heresy or insanity, but I now favor (seriously) the CFS2 forecasts for the month ahead over the Euro weeklies. The CFS2 used to jump around a lot but not so much any more. Euro weeklies have jumped some this year, though what you described sounds like "more of the same" persistence of the last 2 months. For next year, I see the CFS2 is holding on to the +PDO, which should continue to help with the PAC. Now, if we can get some blocking we should stand the chance at another active, if not snowy, winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I have a feeling we're in for a monster March storm as our last hurrah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 27, 2015 Author Share Posted February 27, 2015 I have a feeling we're in for a monster March storm as our last hurrah. which, on the one hand, makes me wish that you remove your sig, but on the other, am too superstitious since it's been working fine lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Anybody know what the short range models show for tonight. 18z nam still has a nice band of snow come through in the early morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 27, 2015 Author Share Posted February 27, 2015 Anybody know what the short range models show for tonight. 18z nam still has a nice band of snow come through in the early morning. unimpressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 unimpressive Ok, thanks. Still hoping to get a dusting from this band of snow just west of Frederick county. http://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/va/sterling/lwx/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I have a feeling we're in for a monster March storm as our last hurrah. A safer bet is that the NAO will be positive and the AO will be positive. Not that it has mattered during the recent three weeks or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 The vast majority of our DCA-era March's with a decent snowstorm had at least one other somewhat widespread measurable event at some other date during the month (either before or after), even if that other event is a snow-to-rain or rain-to-snow situation. In other words, if we have conditions favorable for snow that late in the season, it's usually not a one threat period: 3/56, 3/58, 3/60, 3/64, 3/65, 3/69, 3/78, 3/80, 3/84, 3/90, 3/93, 3/94, 3/96, 3/99, 3/13, 3/14 yeah i was thinking that off my head earlier but good to see stats to back it up. if i didn't live in the city i'd be more interested in this coming march than i am.. tho i guess i'm agnostic on it in reality. every day we don't score IMBY we need a lot more to come together just right to score moving forward. but we've been rolling.. perhaps a brief relax and we go back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Sounds like I need to cut some more firewood...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Ok, thanks. Still hoping to get a dusting from this band of snow just west of Frederick county. http://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/va/sterling/lwx/ There are some flurries. But a dusting it is not. maybe it will blow up some east of me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 It's been a bad year for large real estate big storms. Even during our amplified +pna period this month nothing really blew up. Just regional quick hitters. Nao progs and plots definitely looks less hostile. Maybe we get some sort of transient -nao timed with another pna spike. I'm not feeling a big storm setup happening but march can be an explosive month with storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I was out this evening walking around and had a big-time deja vu of late 2/10 when the sunlight was the same and snow depth was similar having dropped from the monster peak of around 36" on 2/11/10. Very strange. I can't get enough snow, at least not living here. Maybe if I was in Boston this year I'd feel different, but I doubt it. My reply is probably best for the banter thread, but I agree with you to an extent. I can't get enough snow from Thanksgiving until the beginning of March. As things are, I'll take March snow, but only because I didn't get it from Turkey Day to now. If I had gotten it for three months, I'd be fine with punting March. And for me, that's the trade off of living here as opposed to further north. We may not get as much snow as SNE, but I can recall plenty of late March and early April days where even the best winters were a recent memory and I was out working late in the yard on some garden project enjoying a spectacular spring evening, while Boston was getting snow. And worse, they were still weeks away from their famous mud season. I know that you weren't comparing the two regions, but I'll take the misery that comes with snow season here for the benefits that come in late March and April. And even October and November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 So nobody's gonna mention the GFS and it's two sorta interesting features Tuesday and THursday of next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 So nobody's gonna mention the GFS and it's two sorta interesting features Tuesday and THursday of next week? Front end is hanging on by a thread. The other.. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I was out this evening walking around and had a big-time deja vu of late 2/10 when the sunlight was the same and snow depth was similar having dropped from the monster peak of around 36" on 2/11/10. Very strange. I can't get enough snow, at least not living here. Maybe if I was in Boston this year I'd feel different, but I doubt it. I think the snowcover fires up extra neuro sensors in us snow nuts. Kinda like a reverse SAD. I like cold without snow also so this has been very good and I have done some -20 wind chill Jebodia back yard walks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Okay what are we tracking? Its almost 305am. C'mon guys we got a storm next week. The front end would dump 7 inches snow on DCA verbatim. Let's track this puppy. We got this! You guys want some more snow or not? We got us another storm in DC in 3 days! Let's track it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 The GFS seems to be screaming about one final, end of the season arctic blast on March 6th followed by a major pattern change. By March 11th, it doesn't even seem to get below freezing at night in our area. The March 6 blast could be historic for freezing down to the GOM coast! So: a couple front end thumps to rain and then forsythias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Ginxy up in the NE forum thinks we could have a triple phaser. Wouldn't THAT be a BLAST?!!! I wonder if we FINALLY get to have a Block? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Ginxy up in the NE forum thinks we could have a triple phaser. Wouldn't THAT be a BLAST?!!! I wonder if we FINALLY get to have a Block? If we get a triple phaser, I will change my name to whatever you choose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 If we get a triple phaser, I will change my name to whatever you choose. Get ready to change it, because Ginxy is a high order meteorological genius. In the meantime, I had better see some posting of models in this thread. We got us a storm on Sunday. We are going to track it and we are going to get significant snow, probably as a front end thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 On the 6z GFS I just saw a lot of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 If we get a triple phaser, I will change my name to whatever you choose. Obvious answer is...no you won't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Every March someone says we are going to get a triple phaser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Obvious answer is...no you won't For a triple, yes I will... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Not sure how heavy it is but we got hosed with the morning snow. Philly had a decent band that died off and just as that happened, a bunch of snow blossomed just of 95, especially down toward DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Not sure how heavy it is but we got hosed with the morning snow. Philly had a decent band that died off and just as that happened, a bunch of snow blossomed just of 95, especially down toward DC. Its snowing in Dale City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vern Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Not sure how heavy it is but we got hosed with the morning snow. Philly had a decent band that died off and just as that happened, a bunch of snow blossomed just of 95, especially down toward DC. I rode through that on my bike a while ago in Arlington...it was just flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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