Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Not going to invest time for a day 6 threat with 2-4" potential. Me neither. We're late season now and march climo becomes unfriendly fairly quickly. At least here it does. We have some cold hp's coming down and some possible overrunning setups. D3-4 is the earliest it becomes clear if something could actually go right imo. Certainly not d6+. This could be one of those years where a coastal hits in March with some cold nearby. If that type of deal shows up at longer leads then it's worth more than a casual look each suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 The snow part of this winter blows. So much wasted potential there's a reason we don't average what SNE does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Anything after 3/7 is mostly no good for DC, snows 4" and melts in 4 hours. 1993 exception. I think Sunday is going to be forced further east and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Meh, I'm not nearly as excited about next week's potential. It just does not seem like much is there. Perhaps 5 minutes of ice before we get rained on. It surely looks wet but otherwise, not nearly as interesting as what we saw just a couple of days ago. We'll see, things can change somewhat for the better. I'm not chasing a big event per se, and even though I'm kind of pessimistic right now, I don't think we're totally done with accumulating snow this season. Probably something to add to totals. As silly as this sounds, my immediate hope is that we surpass the overall cold from February 2007. We're on pace now (at least looking at DCA's latest monthly summary), and have a few tenths of a degree buffer. It's currently slightly colder than Feb. 2007. I think we'll do it, going by LWX's forecast through the 28th. But it doesn't help that temps shot up to the upper 30s at DCA this afternoon, when it wasn't supposed to get out of the low 30s originally. I'm also secretly rooting for Cleveland, OH (my home town) to get their all-time coldest February (currently Feb. 1875). They've had remarkable cold up that way, and they look in a pretty good spot to do it. I think they're a tenth of a degree colder than Feb. 1875 right now, and the forecast there is for highs in the low-mid teens and lows near or below zero the next couple of days. Kind of surreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Anything after 3/7 is mostly no good for DC, snows 4" and melts in 4 hours. 1993 exception. I think Sunday is going to be forced further east and south. I'd put down St. Patrick's Day from last year, too as far as exceptions go. Snow ended the morning of the 17th, we got 8", and even DCA did not crack 32 that day. That snow was around for a little bit, too. But I see what you're saying, it generally does not stay around long in March, barring some serious cold (cloud cover helps, as does nighttime snow!). Why are you thinking Sunday will end up further south and east, offhand? Not trying to be facetious, but serious question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 I don't care about snow sticking around at this point. I haven't seen my grass for 12 days as it is and the Jan stuff stuck around for a week+ as well. Pack fetish is totally satisfied. I just want to add to totals. Any way it happens is fine with me. Watching snow fall from the sky never gets old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 I don't care about snow sticking around at this point. I haven't seen my grass for 12 days as it is and the Jan stuff stuck around for a week+ as well. Pack fetish is totally satisfied. I just want to add to totals. Any way it happens is fine with me. Watching snow fall from the sky never gets old. yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 I'd put down St. Patrick's Day from last year, too as far as exceptions go. Snow ended the morning of the 17th, we got 8", and even DCA did not crack 32 that day. That snow was around for a little bit, too. But I see what you're saying, it generally does not stay around long in March, barring some serious cold (cloud cover helps, as does nighttime snow!). Why are you thinking Sunday will end up further south and east, offhand? Not trying to be facetious, but serious question. That was about as big a storm as you'll get that late.. could be 50 yrs till it repeats.. not to mention the perfect timing for that late. (though I guess it's necessary!). Upcoming period doesn't look great.. punting 10 days pretty much ends things for DC unless we get lucky. I'd imagine we can get a mangled 1-2" event somewhere though even if so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 I don't care about snow sticking around at this point. I haven't seen my grass for 12 days as it is and the Jan stuff stuck around for a week+ as well. Pack fetish is totally satisfied. I just want to add to totals. Any way it happens is fine with me. Watching snow fall from the sky never gets old. Sums it up well! On a season I thought we could have 125%+ of normal, to be at normal is ok considering how disastrous things panned out! Last weekend was the savior of winter in the DC area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Sums it up well! On a season I thought we could have 125%+ of normal, to be at normal is ok considering how disastrous things panned out! Last weekend was the savior of winter in the DC area! I'm at 119%. 2 more inches and I'm at 128%. Rockville is a serious snow town ever since they installed the band magnet last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 I'm at 119%. 2 more inches and I'm at 128%. Rockville is a serious snow town ever since they installed the band magnet last year. That is awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 That is awesome! I got really lucky with the Jan clipper, vday whiteout, and the saturday storm. Last year was similar. Happened a few times last year as well. Been pretty lucky. I'm convinced it's because I speak nicely about the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 I got really lucky with the Jan clipper, vday whiteout, and the saturday storm. Last year was similar. Happened a few times last year as well. Been pretty lucky. I'm convinced it's because I speak nicely about the gfs. I am just about at climo here, which is 18-19 inches. I also got lucky on Vday with a quarter inch during the day then the completely awesome mega-squall that dropped 3 inches here in not much more than an hour. Then followed that up with 6" that Monday night. Best period of the winter, and even tho last weekend kinda sucked ass here, I did pretty well today. Saturday night wiill be the 2 week mark with a minumum of 3 inches of snowcover. Pretty damn cool for mid-late Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 I got really lucky with the Jan clipper, vday whiteout, and the saturday storm. Last year was similar. Happened a few times last year as well. Been pretty lucky. I'm convinced it's because I speak nicely about the gfs. Shoot! I may have to buy the GFS flowers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Anything after 3/7 is mostly no good for DC, snows 4" and melts in 4 hours. 1993 exception. I think Sunday is going to be forced further east and south. That extra hour of sunlight is a killer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 That extra hour of sunlight is a killer It just never gets old does it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 we'll see what the ensembles say.......Bob???Euro ens are blah. 3-4" avg for the whole 15 day period. But Mitch I dunno if you can see the Cfs snowfall but its very bullish on the second half of March into early April even. It gets kinda stupid actually with the idea we have snowcover into mid April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 I think we have a shot at one more system but as said we now battle the sun angle, warmer ground temps, longer days and a changing atmosphere. Before you know it we'll be warm sectors waiting for SPC to issue a watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 I think we have a shot at one more system but as said we now battle the sun angle, warmer ground temps, longer days and a changing atmosphere. Before you know it we'll be warm sectors waiting for SPC to issue a watch. if the hints of a -nao half after March 10 are right then given the analogs that would bring into play I could see a blockbuster storm to end the season. Of course we would be battling climo in the usual spots by then but some chsnce is better then no chance.Eta: before someone says they would rather spring, don't worry it's coming one way or another and soon enough it will be 85 and humid and we will be sweating. The summers are long enough give me a few extra weeks of cold. Besides once into mid March even if we get a cold snowy pattern on sunny days it will feel warm after the feb we had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 we'll probably have another event or 2 at some point just because the PAC is an unstoppable beast...it will reassert itself....wouldn't be surprised by an early April snow this year...though obviously that would be mostly interior...unfortunately or fortunately, depending on your perspective, 3/15 to 4/5 is open for business in a winter like this...as far as numbers these end up being traces or 0.2's at DCA...but someone in the burbs could get a decent snow event.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 we'll probably have another event or 2 at some point just because the PAC is an unstoppable beast...it will reassert itself....wouldn't be surprised by an early April snow this year...though obviously that would be mostly interior...unfortunately or fortunately, depending on your perspective, 3/15 to 4/5 is open for business in a winter like this...as far as numbers these end up being traces or 0.2's at DCA...but someone in the burbs could get a decent snow event.... that's kinda how I read the pattern too. With the caveat that if the nao tanks it increases the chances dc proper can cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I'm 6 for 10 in terms of getting measurable march/april snow the last 10 winters. 11 events total. In a winter like this I'd say chances of measurable March/April snow IMBY is probably 70%......At the very least I think it is more likely than not that I will add to my totals... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 we'll probably have another event or 2 at some point just because the PAC is an unstoppable beast...it will reassert itself....wouldn't be surprised by an early April snow this year...though obviously that would be mostly interior...unfortunately or fortunately, depending on your perspective, 3/15 to 4/5 is open for business in a winter like this...as far as numbers these end up being traces or 0.2's at DCA...but someone in the burbs could get a decent snow event.... I really hope your wrong. But I agree with you. I dont see this pattern breaking down as quickly as some. Not that i am happy about a cold March. I would much rather torch at this point. The models are not showing any sustained warmth though throughout their runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 27, 2015 Author Share Posted February 27, 2015 Euro ens are blah. 3-4" avg for the whole 15 day period. But Mitch I dunno if you can see the Cfs snowfall but its very bullish on the second half of March into early April even. It gets kinda stupid actually with the idea we have snowcover into mid April. I can't except for the CFS2 site which is definitely showing below normal temps and way above precip for both MAR and APR like you said, hot and humid is guaranteed in these parts.....snow and cold is not, so let's cash in when we can Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I agree matt. The Pac has been relentless for a month. Even losing the +pna isn't stopping cold shots. We're gonna wobble for the next week but there is a pretty strong signal for another bout of fairly decent neg departures in the d9-13 range. I can envision a +pna/-epo setting up for a time in march. Unlike folks itching for spring, I dont care one way or another. Like PSU said, spring and heat will come no matter what. March is usually an comfortable month weatherise. I'll gladly track snow chances till the end. I can't control weather anyway. Whatever is going to happen will happen. I have fun tracking weather regardless of the outcome. My only real peeve is 90+/70+. I can't enjoy that unless I'm at the beach or pool. It's disgusting otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I don't think anyone who knows anything is expecting an early spring or even a regular start to spring. Persistence is a pain. I'm definitely not expecting a storm greater than what I've seen imby tho.. Perhaps at folly but I'll play those odds most days. I'm close enough to climo now that anything small isn't going to be too exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I feel the same way as psuhoffman... the heat and humidity will be here soon enough, and even before then, I'm not too excited about allergies. No big deal if 60s and 70s wait a few extra weeks. I don't discount mid-March if the pattern is right mainly because in the past we've had some pretty exceptional storms in the March 10-20 period, especially the favored burbs. Getting even half of what March 1958 delivered would be really awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I agree matt. The Pac has been relentless for a month. Even losing the +pna isn't stopping cold shots. We're gonna wobble for the next week but there is a pretty strong signal for another bout of fairly decent neg departures in the d9-13 range. I can envision a +pna/-epo setting up for a time in march. Unlike folks itching for spring, I dont care one way or another. Like PSU said, spring and heat will come no matter what. March is usually an comfortable month weatherise. I'll gladly track snow chances till the end. I can't control weather anyway. Whatever is going to happen will happen. I have fun tracking weather regardless of the outcome. My only real peeve is 90+/70+. I can't enjoy that unless I'm at the beach or pool. It's disgusting otherwise. Excellent commentary. I think we are only scratching the surface with skill for seasonal prediction. Am fairly confident that nobody called this particular winter accurately in advance. Certainly, not a soul called for a month of historic snow for Boston and subsequently called for the Mid-Atlantic to catch up from a slow start and score snow climo during an icebox February. I guess Americanwx.com can close up shop when we nail the seasonal skillset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I feel the same way as psuhoffman... the heat and humidity will be here soon enough, and even before then, I'm not too excited about allergies. No big deal if 60s and 70s wait a few extra weeks. I don't discount mid-March if the pattern is right mainly because in the past we've had some pretty exceptional storms in the March 10-20 period, especially the favored burbs. Getting even half of what March 1958 delivered would be really awesome. Allegra D is my friend for 5 months per year. March has been a late winter month the past few years instead of an early spring month. Like Bob said. you cant control it. So just enjoy whatever happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 1958 redux....would be nice. We are due for a March QPF snow bomb..it's been too long. 3/16/2007 came close... it was a bit too warm in my area, mostly 35 degree rain and sleet but in the end we got a nice burst of snow and about 2". I believe York picked up around 10" or so, and your area probably did well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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