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March Threats/Snow Storms Pt. II


mitchnick

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I see rain Tuesday/Wednesday for the most part. Maybe some Snow/Ice to start. 12z GFS is a Mix very quickly to rain. DCA is like 56 with Rain 7:00am Wednesday. GGEM is low to mid 60s Wednesday and for SE NC, Low 70s Thursday at 7:00am, lol.

 

 

yeah i don't think this one is going to end up under us very easily. winter almost over!!!

winter to spring is never easy around here as we know

GFS shows the Sunday/Monday thing a little cooler than prior runs and Canadian a little cooler than GFS....trending?

then the next storm goes into the GL on all the models, so we'll definitely warm for that

....but then, it looks to get cool or cold again (depending on the model and run), for better or worse

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I don't see any signs of spring setting in for the next 2 weeks. Probably longer. We can get some nice warm days but prob not stringing a bunch together.

I don't think we're going to see sustained warmth for a while but we're battling averages now in the cities at least unless things come at night. 

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bob what happened to all the snowy solutions per the euro for midweek per EPS?

Almost all the ens members has accum snow during the 3-4th timeframe. Most in the 2-4" range with a half dozen in 6"+ range.

IMO- it's a snow to rain deal if it works out. I'm not worried about looking too close until the weekend.

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we'll see what the ensembles say.......Bob???

I doubt anything good...When the op had a nice setup so did the ensembles,  when the euro op bailed on the overrunning setup last night the ensembles bailed with it.   It has been that way all winter though, the ensembles pretty much lock step with the op, both when right and wrong.  Kind of defeats the purpose of having ensembles when they always follow the op even when its wrong. 

 

Ninja's by bob,

 

ETA:  apparently I stand corrected, although yesterday the ensemble 15 day mean for up here was around 10" and now its less then 6, I tend not to pay attention unless the nice pretty bright colors are showing up over me.  Not going to invest time for a day 6 threat with 2-4" potential. 

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Neither the GEFS nor CMC ensembles show much snow over the next two weeks.  If anything, we might get a little snow / ice on Sunday night and some ice around March 4th.  After that, they only show some potential light events, with the best shot around March 11.

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