Jebman Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Tomorrow night this topic is gonna be jumpin'. It's gonna come north. DC is a snowtown. That's all there is to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Making some progress. It won't take much to get a 1-3" snow into much of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Tomorrow night this topic is gonna be jumpin'. It's gonna come north. DC is a snowtown. That's all there is to it. If we can get a 6" snow out of this I will be quite pleased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Making some progress. It won't take much to get a 1-3" snow into much of the area. If I get 2 inches I would be happy, that's about climo for me this time of year, but there are other backyards besides mine to think about. Wes and noreastericane need snow, and so do other people in Va and in Maryland. Maryland got good snow last storm. Well, I want them to get even MORE snow this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The euro has the 0.05" contour in the same place (just south of the M/D line) but the 0.10" contour came around ~30 miles north and is now just a hair below DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Currently for DC - I'd toss the Ukmet and I'm not even posting the SREF...looks like 1" for me 12zEuro - 0.07" 18z GFS - 0.09" 18z RGEM - 0.10" 12zUkmet - 0.15" 12zGGEM - 0.07" 18z NAM - 0.08" 18z 4k NAM - 0.11" every model got worse for DC except EURO (GFS stayed same)...still looks like close to 1" for me... 0z Euro - 0.09" 0z GFS - 0.09" 0z NAM - 0.06" 0z 4k NAM - 0.05" 0z UKMET - 0.06" 0z GGEM - 0.03" 0z RGEM - 0.09" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 06z NAM is a big improvement. 4km is also nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 06z NAM is a big improvement. The position of the heavy snow has shifted a bit north and the NW side is much more robust on the 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 06z NAM is a big improvement. If I'm interpreting this map - and usedtobe's backyard correctly, this run gives him about 2 inches of snow. Some parts of northeastern NC could be looking at a foot of snow on this run As for the 4-km map, I need more corroboration from more modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 6z GFS is also quite a bit wetter.... Time for a thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 GFS snow maps bring the 3-inch line close to DC this run and the nam gets DC 2-inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Goodness....6z nam and gfs look like 2-3" back here!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 you have to like the trend; no matter how slow and deliberate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 6z GFS is also quite a bit wetter.... Time for a thread? New thread has been give http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45855-feb-26-27-storm-disc/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The trends are good. Not that anyone likes the RPM but it gets better as we get closer to the event. This is what it has for snow accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The trends are good. Not that anyone likes the RPM but it gets better as we get closer to the event. This is what it has for snow accumulations. weather(1).jpg :0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The trends are good. Not that anyone likes the RPM but it gets better as we get closer to the event. This is what it has for snow accumulations. weather(1).jpg I'm hugging the RPM. Even an inch or two would be a huge win up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The trends are good. Not that anyone likes the RPM but it gets better as we get closer to the event. This is what it has for snow accumulations. Whoa, whoa, whoa. You're saying a forecast model gets better at closer lead times? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Whoa, whoa, whoa. You're saying a forecast model gets better at closer lead times? Hey now!! LOL. It's ONLY good 12-24 hours out from a storm I should say. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I'm not sure if anyone has been paying attention since we've been tracking a surprise snow but the signal for a -nao building seems to be increasing every day. Ensembles have been hinting at it. Now the ops are starting to bite. D10 euro: GFS showing it happening just later Euro ens have been showing the nao to drop towards neutral for a few days now but last night's 0z now favors going into neg teritory: GEFS has been more stubborn but the last 3 ens runs show neutral NAO conditions by March 9-10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Temps during the day seem to be running high...those boys down in the tropics by the water might want to think about that Listen to me people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I'm not sure if anyone has been paying attention since we've been tracking a surprise snow but the signal for a -nao building seems to be increasing every day. Ensembles have been hinting at it. Now the ops are starting to bite. D10 euro: GFS showing it happening just later Euro ens have been showing the nao to drop towards neutral for a few days now but last night's 0z now favors going into neg teritory: euronaoens.JPG GEFS has been more stubborn but the last 3 ens runs show neutral NAO conditions by March 9-10th. Just in time for spring, awesome. I love chilly rain; we didn't get near enough of that this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Days of 40's and rain. Yay. We finally bring it home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Just in time for spring, awesome. I love chilly rain; we didn't get near enough of that this winter. If I as living south or east of DC I would be very skeptical, but for those of us northwest of the fall line there are plenty of cases of good snowfalls mid march to just discount the threat if we do indeed get a +PNA -NAO pattern March 10-20. Even southeast of there it can happen, just more rare. Last year should prove its too soon to say winter is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 If I as living south or east of DC I would be very skeptical, but for those of us northwest of the fall line there are plenty of cases of good snowfalls mid march to just discount the threat if we do indeed get a +PNA -NAO pattern March 10-20. Even southeast of there it can happen, just more rare. Last year should prove its too soon to say winter is over. That was the point of my post. Now that we are moving away from "decent" snow climo we need more help. I'll take a -nao in March any year. Cold rain is a staple in all Marches regardless of the nao. To get snow beyond the first week we need blocking or some sort of extreme -epo or +pna. We're not done getting snow. I'm pretty confident that we will add to totals in the next 10 days not including what happens overnight and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 That was the point of my post. Now that we are moving away from "decent" snow climo we need more help. I'll take a -nao in March any year. Cold rain is a staple in all Marches regardless of the nao. To get snow beyond the first week we need blocking or some sort of extreme -epo or +pna. We're not done getting snow. I'm pretty confident that we will add to totals in the next 10 days not including what happens overnight and tomorrow. Bob, yesterday you mentioned the Euro ensembles were increasing snow chances....how do they look today? thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 So anything in the pipeline to look forward to. I lost track of what we're supposed to be tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Bob, yesterday you mentioned the Euro ensembles were increasing snow chances....how do they look today? thx They look pretty good. Especially for a front end thump tues-wed next week. Beyond that looks good as well. Plenty of cold highs but mixing will be an obvious problem with events unless the nao really does go negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 So anything in the pipeline to look forward to. I lost track of what we're supposed to be tracking. Tues/wed has some unusually strong agreement about a cutter pushing into a cad wedge considering it's a week away. GFS has been holding onto a decent snow to ice to rain event last couple runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 So anything in the pipeline to look forward to. I lost track of what we're supposed to be tracking. Good chance we'll see some crocus in the next few weeks. I may start a thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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