mitchnick Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 looks like all the models from 18Z were a little wrong with the northern stream slp reality is that it's down to 1006 and centered around the intersection of N & S Dakota and the easter Idaho boarder vs. the 1010 the NAM had and the 1006 the GFS and RGEM proged I have no idea what it will mean as I guess one could argue both ways, alternatively, it may not mean a thing, but it is stronger than proged by any of the models 6 hours ago http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=pr&inv=0&t=cur&expanddiv=hide_bar http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=006ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_006_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150224+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=006ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_006_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150224+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/591_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 SREFS just folded not folded, but came down to .2-.25 in the DCA area...until the next run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Well 21z SREFs have DCA at 0.25 QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 Well 21z SREFs have DCA at 0.25 QPF look at the end of the sref run at 500mb and 850 temps looks like quite an overrunning potential and we're on the right side of the trough/cold boundary (at least to start) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 SREFs (and NAM) tend to have a wet bias and esp in winter storms....too robust on the northern edge of precip shield. It will back down gradually over the next few runs. I have no expectations other than clouds and some flakes in the air...maybe a dusting DC and points SE. Even the immediate coast of DE and MD are likely to see no more than an inch or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 horrible ratio of posts to snow produced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The comment was based upon the past week demonstrating something that does happen quite often to Richmond. The Saturday storm was a good one just one hour west and north of here. No accumulation in Richmond at all. Thursday looks to be bigger south and east of here, while I don't think it will be a 12.26.2004 style shutout, it still looks to be more of an event one hour south and east. Looking back over past decade there are numerous instances of Richmond kind of falling into a gap between systems that produce from the mountains up though NOVa (or just in NOVa) and systems that produce through the far south side into Hampton Roads. Yes. Richmond is at about 7.4 inches for the year now, but if you look back you'll see empirically that few reporting stations in the Mid-Atlantic, and East Coast as a whole, have achieved their yearly average as rarely as Richmond recently. Area has been in a snow drought. Just noting that trend. Sooner or later climo will catch up to you guys... I don't think these constant Richmond screwjobs can keep happening forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 NAM is juicy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 DC south getting decent snows hr 31 on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 NAM is juicy northern stream low is hanging back a bit NW of 18Z location.....breathing room? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Bag it.. next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 d@mn n/s low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Bag it.. next! Bag it meaning it's not good? I don't have good access to data right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 Bag it meaning it's not good? I don't have good access to data right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Bag it meaning it's not good? I don't have good access to data right now Are you on your phone? Looks like ass.. precip doesn't make it to DC for the most part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Are you on your phone? Looks like ass.. precip doesn't make it to DC for the most part Its almost like it hits a wall and can't move north into DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Norfolk will end up with more snow than dc this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Are you on your phone? Looks like ass.. precip doesn't make it to DC for the most part Ugh that stinks. Was hoping for a better push Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Its almost like it hits a wall and can't move north into DC Could be a function of the low making a beeline for London Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Its almost like it hits a wall and can't move north into DC Dry air or weak forcing I bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Ugh that stinks. Was hoping for a better push We need it to come north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Terrible location. Too far south for miller b and too far north for southern streamer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 North trends only work out for those north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Are you on your phone? Looks like ass.. precip doesn't make it to DC for the most part Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Looks better for areas like Fredericksburg than the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Norfolk will end up with more snow than dc this year But not you so no worries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 Williamsburg gets around 9"....not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Terrible location. Too far south for miller b and too far north for southern streamer Good to see your disciple hosjIII taking after your posting style... keep it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Mitch work your magic and break out the Water Vapor and 700mb RH panels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Coach McGuirk reported 3" today... watch him get a foot of snow on top of it. I'd be beyond furious if I lived in Richmond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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